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Jabbabhoy

To buy or not to buy???

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I think I will know the general consensus on this forum.

Me and the missus are FTBs, looking to buy in London, we can afford a property and credit isn't an issue.

Unfortunately we are in a situation where we have been renting for years and want to buy our own home, we have resisted for years due to the ridiculous prices since 2013.

My main concern, or the most immediate risk, is Brexit. With it being so close it is a real risk.

What are your opinions?

If we remain would prices stabilise or rise? If we leave do they fall significantly?

Tbh my head is spun by this all, be great to hear your opinions 👍

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10 minutes ago, Freezer? Best place for it said:

Project this indecision onto a sellers greed, maybe the last opportunity to leave the stage for years.

Basically you are suggesting that sellers will be getting desperate pretty soon?

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3 minutes ago, Jabbabhoy said:

Basically you are suggesting that sellers will be getting desperate pretty soon?

Not soon - they are currently experiencing this confusion from the other end.  An ideal time for low offers and windy potential sellers.  Would you welcome trying to sell in this environment?  Ha!

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I'm in a similar situation. I was thinking of starting to talk to EAs asking to contact me if some sellers started to get desperate

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I don’t actually think things will go higher if Brexit doesn’t happen, I think people have been stretched enough.

if Brexit happens and there is a run on the pound rates might have to go up quickly 

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3 hours ago, Jabbabhoy said:

I think I will know the general consensus on this forum.

Me and the missus are FTBs, looking to buy in London, we can afford a property and credit isn't an issue.

Unfortunately we are in a situation where we have been renting for years and want to buy our own home, we have resisted for years due to the ridiculous prices since 2013.

My main concern, or the most immediate risk, is Brexit. With it being so close it is a real risk.

What are your opinions?

If we remain would prices stabilise or rise? If we leave do they fall significantly?

Tbh my head is spun by this all, be great to hear your opinions 👍

By not buying you will be helping prices sink further.

The housing ponzi scheme relies on new mortgage debt being created.

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No way May gets her deal through parliament.

They're not going to postpone leaving.

No deal a certainty IMHO.

Draw your own conclusions, but the pound is only going one way and it ain't up.

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37 minutes ago, GeneCernan said:

No way May gets her deal through parliament.

They're not going to postpone leaving.

No deal a certainty IMHO.

Draw your own conclusions, but the pound is only going one way and it ain't up.

So are you saying interest rates are going to shoot up and house prices are going to sink (30% as per Carney)?

 

Edited by Captain Kirk

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20 minutes ago, Captain Kirk said:

So are you saying interest rates are going to shoot up and house prices are going to sink (30% as per Carney)?

 

If there is a no-deal brexit there will be some short-term pain on both sides of the channel IMO. How long this goes on for is anyones guess. What I think we might see is the pound slumping and interest rate rises to protect it, by what magnitude is , again, is anyones guess

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Its not really a choice is it.

Buy now

  • House prices still expensive
  • Falls mainly in London from insane to very expensive
  • Not much for sale

Buy after Brexit

  • Possibility of 30% falls (boe)
  • Possibility of 40% falls if rates rise (HPC)
  • Forced sellers meaning more choice
  • You know what your buying into
  • You may have a better idea of what your employment will be like

It's already an overpriced market and could have fallen significantly even without Brexit.

I am of the mind that you simply cannot afford to buy before such an event given that valuations are this high unless...

  • It's a one off property
  • You get compensated ie 10% -20% off and you dont mind being another 10% ish out medium term (5-10 years).

Nobody is more desperate than me I even tried to make a few offers recently some even just under 10% off but people have refused.

Some vendors have the mind that they will also wait until after Brexit in case there is a magical rebound..,,there are also a lot of properties waiting to be listed after I have been told.

So they dont really want to sell and you would be foolish to buy.... so wait.

Where I live the owners of nice houses are often remain voters they called the referendum wrong and they are calling this wrong also imho.

Do you honestly think house prices are going to jump 10%+ on a EFTA/EEA deal?  Even Mays WA is two years of more waiting about.

Even a second referendum would need a general election to be morally acceptable and if remain won that we would have protests and more arguments etc etc etc.

It's either we are out right away or its months/years of this crap which is not going to be wonderful for the housing market either.

 

Nothing short of more QE, More funding for lending, reversal of S24 and cutting rates is good for house prices from here on in.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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4 hours ago, Jabbabhoy said:

If we remain would prices stabilise or rise?

They may rise for many months but what happens after that? At some point the credit bubble cannot be sustained anymore.

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38 minutes ago, Captain Kirk said:

So are you saying interest rates are going to shoot up and house prices are going to sink (30% as per Carney)?

 

Rates are already rising in the US it would hardly be amazing if our rose to a similar level.

Minimum wage and pension contributions are up 4.6% and 1% (to 3%) in April thats 5.6% wage inflation baked in before we even start with possible Brexit wage inflation.

That will ripple though as supervisors and managers request their differential is maintained.

Given our inflation target is 2% that imho bakes in a significant overshoot?

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6 minutes ago, lombardo said:

They may rise for many months but what happens after that? At some point the credit bubble cannot be sustained anymore.

That assumes the rises where due to being in the Eu.

Having worked on a few projects with Chinese investors I am more of the mind that capital controls/trade wars and credit slow down are more of a factor as the aim was launder it ASAP.

Hence why all "global cities" seem to be slowing down at the same time.

Chinas rise was deflationary for manufacturing/jobs and inflationary for assets/bonds as their millions flowed back.

Is that over as it was always going to end as soon as Mr Chinese man wanted to rise his standard of living or the west slipped into the problems caused by having workers overpaid internationally but too impoverished to house themselves.

Ergo Trump / Brexit entirely predictable.

Edited by Fromage Frais

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1 minute ago, Fromage Frais said:

That assumes the rises where due to being in the Eu.

Not at all. I believe that remaining in the EU will cause a short-term bear market rally because of those people still willing to pay huge amounts while having the belief that Brexit is the biggest threat to houseprices. After that the bear market will continue.

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1 hour ago, GeneCernan said:

No way May gets her deal through parliament.

They're not going to postpone leaving.

No deal a certainty IMHO.

Draw your own conclusions, but the pound is only going one way and it ain't up.

No deal the default legal position.

Nobody can agree on anything

Deciding factor DUP dont want deal or second ref

Should really collapse soon .... but then no time for a general election.

So no deal it looks like being I agree.

TM could extend article 50....then call an election....but she is then automatically out as promised during the 1922 agreements.

After doing that conservatives with their 70% leave voter base would automatically loose.

Corbyn wants leave also.

 

 

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1 hour ago, Jabbabhoy said:

If there is a no-deal brexit there will be some short-term pain on both sides of the channel IMO. How long this goes on for is anyones guess. What I think we might see is the pound slumping and interest rate rises to protect it, by what magnitude is , again, is anyones guess

Yes, what I believe is exactly that. I expect interest rate rises before next summer.

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1 hour ago, lombardo said:

Not at all. I believe that remaining in the EU will cause a short-term bear market rally because of those people still willing to pay huge amounts while having the belief that Brexit is the biggest threat to houseprices. After that the bear market will continue.

You believe remaining will cause prices to fall?

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I'm over 50 and I'd say it's the worst time to buy in my lifetime.

Certainly don't bank on the highly abnormal credit conditions of the last decade continuing.

NB I have no vested interest in property prices falling. It's my genuine opinion that the UK in 2018 is like Japan in 1990 and anyone looking to buy is going to be in negative equity for many, many years and could be looking at serious IR rises if sterling gets attacked post-Brexit.

Caveat emptor.

That said - renting truly is s**t in the UK due to a general incorrect perception that tenants are lower-class citizens ('mugs', if you will) and some may be willing to endure NE and mortgage payment increases just to get out of it and to be able to control their own destiny. Completely understandable.

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Just a little word of caution. The bottom is likely to be when 25% of priced out potential purchasers are priced in. This will then give the market enough of a kick to stabilise and potentially climb again. There was a lot of talk a few years back of 'pent up demand'. Unfortunately i think its still there, and it'll jump in (credit allowing) before it gets to the drops we're wishing for.

If you can afford it, and it's equal or less than similar stuff two years ago (not a flag flyer, in other words)  and you can fix the **** off the mortgage, then you might as well jump in. 

 

At least, as a member if this group you'll be doing it with yours eyes open, and not blinded with you head up Carney's ****, like the rest if the population!! 

Edited by Beaker

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I monitor a range of places within the London area.

My first question is do you know exactly where you want to live? London's a big place and there are micro price trends that can skew things. If you don't know then start researching/monitoring and narrow it down. Are you commuting? Are you planning to stay a long time/start a family or is it just a first step? If the market changes and you can't sell easily would you be happy staying there or could you rent it out (is it a good rental area)?

Assuming you're got a decent deposit (10% bare minimum, 20%+ far better), and you know where you want to live/the types of homes available/how much they have gone for at peak vs how much they're going for now...are you after a new build? If the answer is yes then my opinion is hold the heck off. There is monumental over supply and more coming on over the next 6 years. I believe they have further to fall and waiting (always monitoring, always making contacts with sales teams, always checking service charges and lease terms) will pay off. 

If it's an older property you're after then there's no harm in getting your mortgage offer sorted now and starting to view places in your top tier. How often does your ideal place come up? Are you fussy (you should be! It's the biggest purchase of your life) - the more places you see the better you'll know what you want. Get to know agents, make sure when they're desperate they think you call you.

A lot of people are in your situation, they're holding off too. And others are holding off selling. Now's the time to do the legwork and get ahead. There are bargains out there but IMO there will be a short 'bounce' as soon as everything is resolved one way or another. 

Easter weekend is usually the start of the spring selling season, but it could start a bit earlier this year. Good luck. 

 

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  • 293 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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