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What / Who will collapse first in 2019

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20 hours ago, Odysseus said:

Sounds like my brother. Apparently it is all about how black the black is in the picture. Honestly who gives a f**k. 

1080p to 4k televisions with smart functions in the past 2 to 4 years have become more sophisticated and affordable, with new gimmicks every 6 months (like with smartphones), hence all the wasteful upgrading lately.

I like my brand new LG 32inch with 1080p image, but we're also fine with our old-ish Panasonic 1080p plasma screen (which will still be perfectly fine in 6+ years time).

Argos doesn't seem like it will collapse (its outlets were busy over Christmas) but it will pull back on most of its physical stores and it's become Amazon 2.0 (only without the shady, sleazebag Asian sellers).

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3 hours ago, NoGo said:

Based on visits to the store, and the falling out of love of plastic boxes, I call Poundstretcher.

https://www.retailgazette.co.uk/blog/2018/12/poundstretcher-posts-3rd-consecutive-fall-in-sales/

I also think at some point the BBC must also collapse, I really doubt that many people under 40 are interested in watching it or funding it any more. Once the boomers start getting their free licensees due to age,  I think its game over or government bailout. 

I would say people over 55 - being 52 I watched the World Cup last year together with the Bodyguard and Killing Eve and that's it. 

I do resent paying that yearly tribute.

As for this years favourites, I'll add in Clintons to do an HMV... 

Will be a rocky year for Intu if Debenhams bite the bullet. Their Lakeside Centre has HoF and Debenhams as their anchor tenants and HoF is going. Perhaps not this year but in 2020 one shopping centre could close.

 

 

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20 hours ago, 24gray24 said:

The Italian banks? Deutsche bank? 

Let's get the big dominoes onto the table. 

2019 is the recession. 

Good call. Maybe Unicredit. Also UK challenger banks - Aldermore. Maybe even the UK - NI, Scotland.

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15 hours ago, Fishfinger said:

I would say people over 55 - being 52 I watched the World Cup last year together with the Bodyguard and Killing Eve and that's it. 

I do resent paying that yearly tribute.

As for this years favourites, I'll add in Clintons to do an HMV... 

Will be a rocky year for Intu if Debenhams bite the bullet. Their Lakeside Centre has HoF and Debenhams as their anchor tenants and HoF is going. Perhaps not this year but in 2020 one shopping centre could close.

 

I rarely watch BBC TV (a bit of Doctor Who perhaps) but I listen to BBC radio and read the BBC News website daily.  So I'm not that resentful of the licence fee - I just regard it as more of a website/radio subscription.

Anyway, back on topic - and shopping centres is a good call: whereas there is ALWAYS going to be a place for the corner shop with bread and milk, these megalithic palaces of retail surely will one day become totally unused, once the population has fully converted to online shopping. 

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Economy Energy.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/jan/08/economy-energy-collapse-leaves-235000-in-the-lurch

Quote

An energy firm supplying electricity and gas to nearly a quarter of a million customers has collapsed, becoming the latest in a string of casualties in the sector.

Energy regulator Ofgem confirmed on Tuesday that Economy Energy had ceased trading and urged its 235,000 customers to take meter readings and wait for a new supplier to be appointed.

The firm is the ninth small UK supplier within a year to fail, taking the total number of displaced customers to about 800,000.

The announcement was expected after Ofgem banned it from taking on new customers last week and the company entered credit default on Monday.

Economy Energy did not offer any apology, saying on its website: “Customers need not worry, their supplies are secure and credit balances are protected.”

 

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22 hours ago, Big Orange said:

Argos doesn't seem like it will collapse (its outlets were busy over Christmas) but it will pull back on most of its physical stores and it's become Amazon 2.0 (only without the shady, sleazebag Asian sellers). 

Its physical stores are it's biggest asset - they are ideally set up as 'collection points' for stuff that you can order online and pick up in store.

If they have it in stock you can pick up your purchase within the hour and even if not, maybe the same day if there a store nearby with stock  -  but otherwise they make a good address to have your online purchases sent to.   They already partner with eBay for this and really need to do so with other services too - a bit tricky as Amazon is so dominant in online retail and may not want to play ball with a competitor.

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Looks like Sears will be going into Liquidation (i.e. Not resurrected from bankruptcy by a new owner)

 

Actually quite a suprise, as I thought it was driven into bankruptcy by a Mike Ashley type figure, who's aim was to make a profit taking it out of administration.

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Mothercare has to be a good contender. I ordered a load of stuff online and it arrived over a period of 3 weeks. 3 different deliveries. Must cost extra to do that.

One thing never turned up at all. Kept calling back after about 6 months they cancelled the order. Duh. 

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5 hours ago, Sour Mash said:

Its physical stores are it's biggest asset - they are ideally set up as 'collection points' for stuff that you can order online and pick up in store.

I'm thinking they'll cut back on Argos stores, but phase in order/pick up kiosks in Asda and Sainbury's super centres in the near future.

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17 hours ago, Timbuk3 said:

Mothercare has to be a good contender. I ordered a load of stuff online and it arrived over a period of 3 weeks. 3 different deliveries. Must cost extra to do that.

One thing never turned up at all. Kept calling back after about 6 months they cancelled the order. Duh. 

Mothercare has endured another difficult quarter, with double-digit sales decline across the board in its UK market.

https://www.retailgazette.co.uk/blog/2019/01/mothercare-hit-11-sales-decline/

 

Its not like people have stopped having babies. Maybe this is an opportunity for a new investor to turn it around. Look out for those Lonsdale and Kangol baby grows coming soon, and the Dunlop pram. 

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4 hours ago, NoGo said:

Mothercare has endured another difficult quarter, with double-digit sales decline across the board in its UK market.

https://www.retailgazette.co.uk/blog/2019/01/mothercare-hit-11-sales-decline/

 

Its not like people have stopped having babies. Maybe this is an opportunity for a new investor to turn it around. Look out for those Lonsdale and Kangol baby grows coming soon, and the Dunlop pram. 

There is so much amazing quality stuff floating around second hand, in charity shops etc for babies. People don't need the practical and midrange stuff from Mothercare. A boomer relative will gift a posh baby grow and a wooden toy from John Lewis. We found two big bags of baby clothes on the street, much of it from posh shops.

Need something? Go to Asda, Tesco, etc. Perhaps Babies Direct will compete with these

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I think Mamas and Papas have just got a concession in Next Home. Since that reads badly, I am saying they will have a store inside of some next stores. I agree about baby stuff, and this is an area where the likes of Tesco, and of coarse Amazon have eaten in, but if Mams and Papas can do well, then it might be Mothercare that are failing, not the people failing to shop there. They looked well dodgy last year, and are looking more dodgy this year (however I just have a feeling that it might get saved or bought, as I think the brand is quite strong).

 

https://www.retailgazette.co.uk/blog/2018/11/mamas-papas-to-open-2500sq-ft-expansion-in-next/

Ok, from November, but still recent. I think the retail gazette is a great site, no affiliation BTW.

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On 08/01/2019 at 20:51, Big Orange said:

I'm thinking they'll cut back on Argos stores, but phase in order/pick up kiosks in Asda and Sainbury's super centres in the near future.

I typically wait 10-15 minutes in Sainsbury's for an Argos order. That system doesn't work well at all.

There must be a better system than someone scrawling your name on a bit of paper then walking slowly to the furthest corner of the store room to sort through parcels to find yours...typically they don't write your name properly the first time or they come back again for the order number because there are 2 parcels with the same name. 

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17 minutes ago, regprentice said:

Halfords share price just dropped 20% after todays results Another zombie -  £40Mn cashflow £80Mn Debt.

I'd be quite Sad if Halford go.  Theyre great for emergencies,  Their advanced range of tools are fantastic and always half price and a trade card which can easily be blagged makes some stuff pretty reasonable. ECP is always the benchmark for costs though.

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15 minutes ago, ashnono said:

I'd be quite Sad if Halford go.  Theyre great for emergencies,  Their advanced range of tools are fantastic and always half price and a trade card which can easily be blagged makes some stuff pretty reasonable. ECP is always the benchmark for costs though.

Car servicing I would expect to be the growth area, as is shown.  Older folk who have the skills but not as physically able as before. Youngsters in general from my experience don't have a clue, never mind the tools. And from a few policies I've seen for breakdown cover, the vehicle must be maintained. 

Hfd or any service centre should do well going forward.

 

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1 hour ago, regprentice said:

Halfords share price just dropped 20% after todays results Another zombie -  £40Mn cashflow £80Mn Debt.

Would you mind explaining where you got those figures from please? I am not disagreeing with you, I would like to understand how to interpret this information. From what I can see, it looks like 94m borrowings, but not sure about cash flow:

 

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/prices/stocks/summary/fundamentals.html?fourWayKey=GB00B012TP20GBGBXSTMM

 

thanks

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