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What / Who will collapse first in 2019


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HOLA441
27 minutes ago, regprentice said:

Not my numbers im afraid, i lifted them from a thread on LSE share chat. http://www.lse.co.uk/ShareChat.asp?ShareTicker=HFD

OK, got it thanks. You are referring to a post from May 18, based on last years results.

Its funny reading the chat, people saying this is like Debenhams 3 years ago.

My own take on Halfords is that I dont see a place for it. Any one who takes their car there is not getting a good deal, they are a neither a competent garage, and not a cheap place to get a something easy done. All the tools and gadgets are way cheaper on the internet. Car parts are cheaper from Euro car parts, who will/are probably replacing Halfords, in terms of retail park presence. 

Maybe the bicycle business is still needed, although we are probably in the same situation with bicycles as we are with Baby equipment, pretty saturated.. The local re-use shop (supplied from the council tip has about 30 bikes for sale at any time).

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HOLA442
4 hours ago, regprentice said:

I typically wait 10-15 minutes in Sainsbury's for an Argos order. That system doesn't work well at all.

I do prefer the Argos outlets and Sainsbury's may as well establish dedicated kiosk (like Homebase did, a couple of years before it went belly up).

In fact poorer Christmas sales across the board seemed to have hammered online outlets to a certain extent as well.

Another institution that faces crisis and maybe eventual collapse is the PRC under Xi Jinping (in fact the PRC and USA may not survive to see the dawn of the 22nd century).

Edited by Big Orange
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3 hours ago, ashnono said:

I'd be quite Sad if Halford go.  Theyre great for emergencies,  Their advanced range of tools are fantastic and always half price and a trade card which can easily be blagged makes some stuff pretty reasonable. ECP is always the benchmark for costs though.

Halfords are a good general place. Id never go in there again wanting anything that requires customer service other than till operation though.

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HOLA444

I'm standing by Prince Philip.

I agree with everyone about Mothercare.

Anything selling beds, I bought a bed frame off eBay for a reasonable amount inc. delivery, can't imagine the shops can compete with this.

Fashion: Victoria Beckham label VB is in dire straits and Cath Kidston must be struggling now that it is no longer fashionable.

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1 hour ago, Quicken said:

Debenhams going great guns again today. Doubt they will last the year in current form. Ashley looming over the deb zombie. 

Just prior to Christmas, Laura Ashley announced another 50 odd closures. The new model is a few flagship shops and the volume of sales online. 

I have no idea how SD Ashley would offload all the redundant Debs and HoF stores. And both are comparatively late into the market in terms of online, as well as in the wrong price segment.

Edited by copydude
typo
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HOLA4412
On 10/01/2019 at 12:01, NoGo said:

My own take on Halfords is that I dont see a place for it.

Maybe the bicycle business is still needed, although we are probably in the same situation with bicycles as we are with Baby equipment, pretty saturated.. The local re-use shop (supplied from the council tip has about 30 bikes for sale at any time).

Halfords own Cycle republic and Tredz high end bikes.. 

went in one a few weeks backin Twickenham and it was full of people buying bikes/stuff.

Also went out riding on Saturday in a place near me, big car park full, struggled to park , loads of E-bikes.. very popular now.. Government paying tax relief £1000 for cycle to work scheme.. 

if your on 40% tax you can save £480 tax and national insurance if you buy a £1000 bike.. 

Big business for bike shops.. it pays the depreciation of the bike making a £1000 bike free assuming you can get £520 for it when you sell it.. 

E bikes are the big seller though I think.. they cost £1000’s.. and judging by the park are selling really well.. 

Edited by macca13
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 https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/jan/17/scottish-shopping-centre-sale-postings-kirkcaldy 

I call retail property is the next black swan.  This is just the start of it, there will be more.

British banks up to their eyes in lending to investors in retail parks.  Only the highest quality retail property will survive, the rest will be re-purposed for something else. 

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On 10/01/2019 at 13:37, EnglishinWales said:

I'm standing by Prince Philip.

I agree with everyone about Mothercare.

Anything selling beds, I bought a bed frame off eBay for a reasonable amount inc. delivery, can't imagine the shops can compete with this.

Fashion: Victoria Beckham label VB is in dire straits and Cath Kidston must be struggling now that it is no longer fashionable.

Philip in a car crash yesterday. Car on it's side. He'll have his licence taken away now. I think this counts as a collapse.

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3 hours ago, Timbuk3 said:

 https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/jan/17/scottish-shopping-centre-sale-postings-kirkcaldy 

I call retail property is the next black swan.  This is just the start of it, there will be more.

British banks up to their eyes in lending to investors in retail parks.  Only the highest quality retail property will survive, the rest will be re-purposed for something else. 

There is quite some activity getting together to save high streets, in whatever form. I can see this up here in the North East . . .  all the history, links with the local community, so on.  But sure, no one will shed a tear for retail parks or places like Toys'R'Us. 

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HOLA4418
2 hours ago, Timbuk3 said:

 https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/jan/17/scottish-shopping-centre-sale-postings-kirkcaldy 

I call retail property is the next black swan.  This is just the start of it, there will be more.

 British banks up to their eyes in lending to investors in retail parks.  Only the highest quality retail property will survive, the rest will be re-purposed for something else. 

I saw this a few days ago while going through the Allsop auction list. 

My first thought on seeing it was being sold on behalf of a "major fund" was disappointment in the fund manager for not selling such a worthless investment sooner. People's money is invested in this, Ordinary people either through their pension or through an investment fund.  14/21 of the units are empty, 1/2 is on nil rent, and all the tenants (except the council) are able to exit their leases within the next 2 years.

I've seen properties like this before, They can be filled with tenants if you go and drum up the small business demand & offer realistic rents. Too many "property managers" are 15 years behind the time, thinking that putting up a surveyors board and holding out for a national chain is all they need to do.

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1 hour ago, Council estate capitalist said:

I've seen properties like this before, They can be filled with tenants if you go and drum up the small business demand & offer realistic rents. Too many "property managers" are 15 years behind the time, thinking that putting up a surveyors board and holding out for a national chain is all they need to do.

This one particularly suffered from the loss of Tesco's as an anchor tenant. People stopped coming after Tesco left. It's an ominous precursor for many of the centres depending on department stores like HOF, Deb's, M&S etc who are anchor tenants to many locations and all on the verge of mass closures.

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BBC News: Hundreds could lose money as Dream Lodge Group enters administration

Quote

As well as offering lodges to holidaymakers, the luxury sites - which boasted facilities such as indoor swimming pools and spas - were open to investors, who were promised "guaranteed returns".

Lodges cost about £200,000 to buy but part-ownership schemes were available, which Ms Day said were "a bit like a time-share".

Or exactly like a time-share.

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23 hours ago, regprentice said:

Money and kidneys

Another market that's peaked, now that we're just about ready to 3D-print perfect replacement organs. Ten years from now, kids won't even be worth cutting up for body parts any more.

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HOLA4424
On ‎18‎/‎01‎/‎2019 at 14:27, reddog said:

Tesla has just decided it needs to fire 3,000 people so it can make the model 3 at $35k.

 

I am amazed at how people worship Elon Musk!

Why would anyone expect Tesla to employ more people than needed to make their cars. 

Compared to other manufacturers Tesla are hugely overmanned; over time more than 50% of those jobs will go as processes are automated to the level other firms have already achieved.

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