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undersupply

Dublin- Dearer Than London

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A great article that puts across very well the level of corruption and crookedness at the heart of Ireland's land development system.

Extract from Parlon's speech at the Parnell Summer School, Aug 2003:

It took centuries for Irish politicians to establish property rights and any move to change that would be a slight on the memory of people like Charles Stewart Parnell.

This is typical. Politicians consistently play the Irish nationalist card, to justify their immorality.

There are countries in Africa run with better moral responsibility.

By the way, thanks for all the EU money.

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Dublin more expensive than London.

Banker tells estate agents in Dublin: "There is no bubble" :lol:

He then goes on to agree with property bears and says high house prices are because of abnormally low interest rates and reckless lending.

Now he doesn't actually use the term "reckless lending" . Instead he uses "financial innovation" and "financial liberalisation" :lol:

You have to scroll down to find the article:

http://www.finfacts.com/irelandbusinessnew..._10004741.shtml

Edited by AssetIndigestion

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Dublin more expensive than London.

Has to be said though, given a choice of living in London or Dublin, I know which I would choose. Although my liver probably would not agree.

Edited by jellybean

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Ireland's housebuilding is peculiar. When I went last year there were loads of places being thrown up, usually miles away from anywhere in little coastal areas. We were baffled as to who would buy them since there were no local jobs anywhere near these places.

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Irish Times, 25th September 2007

The Irish economy continued to boom until mid 2007 when jobs began evaporating at an alarming pace. Wage increases had to somehow keep pace with the gravity defying house prices causing businesses to lose their once competitive edge. Many began offshoring and relocating their production and services to India and China where wages were significantly lower and where house price increases had not occured. There were a few winners at the end of the Irish Tiger's life, those who recognized that it couldn't last forever and sold their properties before it was too late. The question for Ireland is whether, like Japan in the 1980's, too much of a good thing will prove to be poisonous for decades to come.

Think about it.............

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Think about it.............

I am. Id qualify for a 100% interest-only loan. Question is should I buy/flip within 12mths. What Im thinking about is how much legs this irish bubble has. And it might have legs yet. Nortel may be worth about $2 today, but back in late 1999 I bought calls on Nortel when it was $100 and made a tone when the stock shot to $120 (before peaking at $142 early 2000).

Before anyone gets self righteous, it's dog-eat-dog now, why should I protect the stupider dogs...

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Senator Shane Ross is fighting for the rights of FTBs - nice to know that at least one politician cares.

What can the Government do to reduce prices? It is a very difficult question because there is a kind of conspiracy against the first-time buyer. It is not just the establishment that is involved - also included are auctioneers who conspire against the first-time buyer and enter a cabal to ensure that nothing works in his or her favour, as Senator Bradford stated.

The banks are also involved because they are lending money recklessly, thus increasing the price of houses. They do not care about the consequences for the buyer. They are lending recklessly in a period of very low interest rates. This is fine if one wants to borrow a lot of money at present but it will be bloody murder when interest rates increase suddenly. I am not referring to the gradual increases which I suspect will occur next month or next year. When they increase suddenly, first-time buyers who have managed somehow to get on the property ladder by paying extraordinarily high prices will find they are being crucified by the same banks that have been so generous to them in the past.

The consequence of this will almost certainly be a fall in the property market. The only question, as the economists’ conference identified this week, will be whether the fall will result in a soft or hard landing. The social consequences will be such that houses will come on the market because people will not be able to pay for them, and there will be negative equity.

http://www.shane-ross.ie/housebuyers.htm

Edited by Flash

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I am. Id qualify for a 100% interest-only loan. Question is should I buy/flip within 12mths. What Im thinking about is how much legs this irish bubble has. And it might have legs yet. Nortel may be worth about $2 today, but back in late 1999 I bought calls on Nortel when it was $100 and made a tone when the stock shot to $120 (before peaking at $142 early 2000).

Before anyone gets self righteous, it's dog-eat-dog now, why should I protect the stupider dogs...

I wouldn't do it myself but If you believe things are going to go 'japanese' then the trend is most definitely your friend.

What price range are you looking at ? It wouldn't be too hard to work out all the expenses in purchasing, holding & selling and then coming up with a minimum appreciation % over 12 months to break even point.

p.s. is there such a thing as a 100% interest-only ?

Edited by AssetIndigestion

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I wouldn't do it myself but If you believe things are going to go 'japanese' then the trend is most definitely your friend.

p.s. is there such a thing as a 100% interest-only ?

Go with the trend:

I like to consider all angles, but I'd agree with you, it's perhaps a bit too rich to be attempting the property flip strategy, even if I do subscribe to the 'going japanese' theory. Particularly given that I'd be leveraging my collateral to get the sort of loan I'd want. I like my collateral too much as it is to put it in jeopardy.

Bet on the turning point:

When assets are significantly mispriced like irish property is, theres always an opportunity to make money when the tide turns. There will be golden moments to make serious cash when this market goes south.

On reflection, betting on the turning point has the best risk/return profile. How to do it? Buy puts on irish bank, building shares, or sell the spreadbets on deltaindex. And be willing to be 'wrong' a few times, before getting it 'right'.

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the rental yields are around 2% in many parts of the city and prices are accelerating!! its madness,people just dont realise that the economy is being driven by transfer pricing multinationals who use the country as a tax haven and also by property construction(20% of economy),cant wait till the sh1t hits the fan.

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The screw to turn (clockwise by another 1/4)

Rate rise could strain 50,000 homeowners: (requires reg.)

http://www.unison.ie/business/stories.php3?ca=80&si=1553661

The threat of another interest rate rise will be greeted with dread by heavily borrowed homeowners, whose plight was highlighted recently in a study by IIB Bank. It said that up to 50,000 Irish mortgage holders could find themselves under strain in the event of a rate rise by the ECB.

The last rise in November brought the ECB base lending rate to 2.25pc and was the first change to lending rates since the ECB dropped the rate to 2pc in June 2003.

It now looks as though we will endure a series of rate rises this year, with Bank of Ireland economist Dr Dan McLaughlin predicting a rate of 3pc by the end of the year, followed by 3.5pc some time next year.

If so many are in dread at 2.25%, things could get real messy, real fast.

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But in the meantime the market is working itself into a frenzy:

http://www.housefund.co.uk/news/2006/02/do...for-dublin.html

The falling average continues to highlight the fact that buyers,
particularly those entering the market, are keen to agree a sale as quickly as possible once the right property is found in anticipation that prices will continue to rise in the short term,
meaning running the risk of a higher financial cost of purchase by delaying the decision.
So optimistic are DNG, that it would not be unrealistic expect double digit price inflation in the second hand market for the year.

EAs are advsing excited buyers to get in quick or pay more later.

Edited by Realistbear

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The housing market is like a rubber band, stretched by increasing interest rates on one hand, and rising house prices on the other.

Anyone care to take any bets on what level of interest rates will make it snap?

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The housing market is like a rubber band, stretched by increasing interest rates on one hand, and rising house prices on the other.

Anyone care to take any bets on what level of interest rates will make it snap?

It could be higher than you'd think. I am convinced that the irish government will find ways to bail out mortgage holders. Politically, there simply cannot be en masse defaults on mortgages-- all is fair in love, war and irish property. And without forced sellers the irish market will continue to defy gravity, even if rates go higher/ftbs dry up.

I hate to say it, but the bulls are still firmly in place in the irish market.

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But in the meantime the market is working itself into a frenzy:

http://www.housefund.co.uk/news/2006/02/do...for-dublin.html

The falling average continues to highlight the fact that buyers,
particularly those entering the market, are keen to agree a sale as quickly as possible once the right property is found in anticipation that prices will continue to rise in the short term,
meaning running the risk of a higher financial cost of purchase by delaying the decision.
So optimistic are DNG, that it would not be unrealistic expect double digit price inflation in the second hand market for the year.

EAs are advsing excited buyers to get in quick or pay more later.

I'm not so sure about DNG "statistics".

As far as I know their data can't be verified and they may be using

straight averages of their sales.

Sell a few huge houses at the top end of the market and your average

moves to where you want it.

The most scientific measure we have (TSB/ESRI) showed HPI of 8 - 9% in 2005, while DNG

showed 20+%. Say no more ;)

And flash, as a guess I would say stagnation/falls in the 3 - 4% range. It'd be interesting to do some affordability calculations.

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And flash, as a guess I would say stagnation/falls in the 3 - 4% range. It'd be interesting to do some affordability calculations.

don't you think FF will find way to subsidise the mortgage holders struggling with 3-4%????

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don't you think FF will find way to subsidise the mortgage holders struggling with 3-4%????

Might not be a bad thing in emergency situations if they could make it work - I wouldn't like to see people in this difficulty no matter how stupid they are.

However, if the government has to step in with a rescue mission it's an admission of major problems and it's game over for property market hype and "creative financing" - which is in large part driving this nonsense.

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And flash, as a guess I would say stagnation/falls in the 3 - 4% range. It'd be interesting to do some affordability calculations.

We should look for evidence of a drop off in consumer spending/borrowing and signs of the banks increasing provision for bad debt. My guess is that 3% should get us to that point.

Given the explosion in credit in the Irish economy, the stagnation/soft landing scenario will be nigh on impossible to achieve.

The government/central bank must act to curb credit growth now. Any delay now will be seen as gross negligence in future.

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However, if the government has to step in with a rescue mission it's an admission of major problems and it's game over for property market hype and "creative financing" - which is in large part driving this nonsense.

It wont be a "rescue mission", it'll a providing "incentives for the poor struggling FTB" etc... increased tax deductability on mortgage interest, favourable tax treatment for banks offering 40yr+ refinancing, legal support for higher rents, "house-evictions" illegal etc. you get the picture... dried up volumes and forced sales are the death knell for positive sentiment / price growth... FF/Construction Industry will pull out all the stops to prevent these occuring

Jaysus, I think Im talking myself into flipping a property in 2006.... :)

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I think this will prove a very prophetic post!

Nothing FF can do but delay the crash until after the election.

Ask the japanese how tinkering with the market stops a crash:it doesnt.

We don't even have interest rates to play with.

1 and 2 bedroom apartments will be the first to fall and fall the hardest.

I'm trying to tell my parents to sell up in early 2007.

They tell me about past performance.

I tell them about gravity.

I might as well be talking to a quarter of a house. :lol::lol:

Irish Times, 25th September 2007

The Irish economy continued to boom until mid 2007 when jobs began evaporating at an alarming pace. Wage increases had to somehow keep pace with the gravity defying house prices causing businesses to lose their once competitive edge. Many began offshoring and relocating their production and services to India and China where wages were significantly lower and where house price increases had not occured. There were a few winners at the end of the Irish Tiger's life, those who recognized that it couldn't last forever and sold their properties before it was too late. The question for Ireland is whether, like Japan in the 1980's, too much of a good thing will prove to be poisonous for decades to come.

Think about it.............

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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