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chiefofwales

Nearing the end of my sanity..

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On 04/01/2019 at 18:09, chiefofwales said:

I've been a long time lurker and very rare poster. I have followed and studied this forum and lots of associated reading (Say Goodbye to all that buy to let to name one) for the last few years. It has been such a fantastic resource and breath of fresh air.

However, my HPC confidence  has come at a cost with my family and friends who think I am an absolute idiot. This is because for the last 5 years or so of my wife and I not buying a house, we've seen prices rise where even if there were a correction now we'd still be in worse off. The amount of times I have been told to buy now, what are you waiting for, rent is dead money etc is probably symptomatic of everyone else on here! But my belief is also being tested and I don't know how much longer we can all wait.

The point of my post is do people believe this is going to happen and within the next couple of years? We want to start a family and the thought of renting while raising a child is not something we want to do (given our current experiences to date). I am losing faith and this is the only place which seems sane.

Will moving up north help you ?

There're plenty of brick houses in suburbs of Glasgow and commuter towns like Falkirk for prices under £100k.

Even you could buy freehold flats in Glasgow 2 to 3 miles from city centre for prices less than £100k for a 2 bed flat.

Personally I think Southeast prices have gone batshit.

The house I bought in Kent has gone up by 10% in 18 months and my neighbours managed to sell theirs for 15% more price than I paid 18 months ago.

Seems Southeast is different animal compared to rest of UK due to excessive centralisation of economy in London.

The flat I purchased in Glasgow is gone up by just £30k in last 15 years. Thats a healthy price and reasonable which is why I was able to buy.

Me and my wife decided to grab the chance when my project manager offered me job in Glasgow in another project.

I'm very happy to leave London commute and walk to my office in Glasgow from my flat.

Although I'm not a fan of SNP, personally I think they've made life affordable for younger generation.

They're keeping housing affordable compared to the madness we see in Southeast. Its a soulless BTL monsters in Southeast of which I became a reluctant landlord now as I'm renting out my home in Kent.

I feel sad for next generation. My suggestion to them, leave Southeast to have better work life balance. No point in buying houses or flats for £600k in London suburbs and live with a massive burden. Better move to other places even for less paid job but better work life balance.

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10 hours ago, macca13 said:

Renting causes huge pressure on relationships, I have considered moving out before just so the council can pay the rent and give the kids a better life than working can provide.. 

Your relationship should come first. If overpaying for a property for a property is a sacrifice that you need to make, then so be it. 

After all, if prices rise or stay the same, you will have made the right decision in the end. If the fall, you do at least have a "I told you so" up your sleeve whenever she disagrees with you about anything in future. 

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Just now, Chunketh said:

Yeah. Carve up the NHS and sell it to the yanks, cut corporation tax and workers rights to "compete", feed our kids chlorinated chicken. We are only missing the workhouses that JRM is probably dreaming about.

It will only happen if we allow it to happen.😉

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58 minutes ago, Simhadri said:
Quote

Only one in five first-time buyers say they are happy to take the plunge pre-Brexit, either because they've found their dream home or think they have waited long enough.

The most important and expensive financial decision in a person's life and it's described in terms of jumping blindfolded into the abyss. It never used to be like that. Buying a house used to be a normal thing to do.

 

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Nobody really knows what will happen. I recently got a mortgage on a small place outside the South East. Not too bothered if prices come down (they really need to) but no longer waiting around hoping tptb get their act together. I had the opportunity to move closer to family and was fed up with renting a shit flat in London.

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1 hour ago, Ah-so said:

Your relationship should come first. If overpaying for a property for a property is a sacrifice that you need to make, then so be it. 

After all, if prices rise or stay the same, you will have made the right decision in the end. If the fall, you do at least have a "I told you so" up your sleeve whenever she disagrees with you about anything in future. 

I'm one of the original HPCers. I was studying HPI before this site even appeared. And apart from 2007-2009 the market proved me wrong. Many good posts here, I'm trying to respond to some without doing multiple quotes.

One of the main reasons my ex and I split was about settling down and buying a house and I wouldn't because I was convinced they would crash. Fast forward to 2019 and prices are 100k further up. I still miss the lady, like there is a gap in my life and wonder that putting personal finance above her was a stupid thing. Some people are one in a million, and you wonder if you'll ever meet similar.

In the old days of this forum the advice was  from many that you are in charge, if the gf won't wait to buy a house, get a new gf.

In hindsight to the OP,  maybe the thing I've learned is don't put life decisions off trying to time the market if you want to stay in the UK. It's a lot easier to buy a house for yourself if you need one - then if you are still wanting to ride the market or short it, do it with a second home when the time is right.

Re. moving abroad and giving up, well I did this and bought into the tail end of the Irish property crash, when I was advised not to. Prices seem to be going insane again there, looks like no lessons were learned and there will be another crash, but so far currently I'm up not only on value but exchange rate movements. This could all change tomorrow or when I managed to sell of course but so far that was ok money terms. But I'm not happy over there and miss the UK. Its an extreme length to goto, to avoid paying bubble UK prices.

Is the south east crashing? Don't know but I've sold up there, only a shared ownership half rent half buy so not mega bucks but I'm glad I'm shot of it and that rent.

"When the last bear turns to a bull".... We have moved beyond that now here. I've lost faith, all the die hards have lost faith or bought. Nobody knows what is going on. Is that a sign when even the HPC site consensus doesn't think a crash is likely anymore.

I've also never seen the media so pro a HPC crash , which makes me think its not happening, they don't normally before a crash.

Glasgow is an interesting idea as long as the Scots accept an Englishman

Edited by bear.getting.old

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8 minutes ago, bear.getting.old said:

I'm one of the original HPCers. I was studying HPI before this site even appeared. And apart from 2007-2009 the market proved me wrong. Many good posts here, I'm trying to respond to some without doing multiple quotes.

One of the main reasons my ex and I split was about settling down and buying a house and I wouldn't because I was convinced they would crash. Fast forward to 2019 and prices are 100k further up. I still miss the lady, like there is a gap in my life and wonder that putting personal finance above her was a stupid thing. Some people are one in a million, and you wonder if you'll ever meet similar.

In the old days of this forum the advice was  from many that you are in charge, if the gf won't wait to buy a house, get a new gf.

In hindsight to the OP,  maybe the thing I've learned is don't put life decisions off trying to time the market if you want to stay in the UK. It's a lot easier to buy a house for yourself if you need one - then if you are still wanting to ride the market or short it, do it with a second home when the time is right.

Re. moving abroad and giving up, well I did this and bought into the tail end of the Irish property crash, when I was advised not to. Prices seem to be going insane again there, looks like no lessons were learned and there will be another crash, but so far currently I'm up not only on value but exchange rate movements. This could all change tomorrow or when I managed to sell of course but so far that was ok money terms. But I'm not happy over there and miss the UK. Its an extreme length to goto, to avoid paying bubble UK prices.

Is the south east crashing? Don't know but I've sold up there, only a shared ownership half rent half buy so not mega bucks but I'm glad I'm shot of it and that rent.

"When the last bear turns to a bull".... We have moved beyond that now here. I've lost faith, all the die hards have lost faith or bought. Nobody knows what is going on. Is that a sign when even the HPC site consensus doesn't think a crash is likely anymore.

I've also never seen the media so pro a HPC crash , which makes me think its not happening, they don't normally before a crash.

 

We have moved from the PTB trying to extend a massive debt bubble to a shake down of the political establishment in the US and Europe because people have just had enough of the pro banker/corporate B.S, that would have been a distant unimaginable dream for a fair few posters back in the days of 2005 and before? Of course life gets in the way of just observing the glacially slow pace of a much needed correction via the internet, and of course many people who spent time on here in the past have bought, but transactions and mortgage approvals are way down and the US is raising rates while China seems to be slowing and the EZ could break up as well, those were often discussed triggers on here that would cause a correction, but it is going to be more than a property meltdown this time, I think we really have sailed into uncharted waters.

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2 hours ago, winkie said:

It will only happen if we allow it to happen.😉

A "clean" Brexit will bake it in. It will be inevitable (maybe not the workhouses!)

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1 hour ago, bear.getting.old said:

I'm one of the original HPCers. I was studying HPI before this site even appeared. And apart from 2007-2009 the market proved me wrong. Many good posts here, I'm trying to respond to some without doing multiple quotes.

One of the main reasons my ex and I split was about settling down and buying a house and I wouldn't because I was convinced they would crash. Fast forward to 2019 and prices are 100k further up. I still miss the lady, like there is a gap in my life and wonder that putting personal finance above her was a stupid thing. Some people are one in a million, and you wonder if you'll ever meet similar.

In the old days of this forum the advice was  from many that you are in charge, if the gf won't wait to buy a house, get a new gf.

In hindsight to the OP,  maybe the thing I've learned is don't put life decisions off trying to time the market if you want to stay in the UK. It's a lot easier to buy a house for yourself if you need one - then if you are still wanting to ride the market or short it, do it with a second home when the time is right.

Re. moving abroad and giving up, well I did this and bought into the tail end of the Irish property crash, when I was advised not to. Prices seem to be going insane again there, looks like no lessons were learned and there will be another crash, but so far currently I'm up not only on value but exchange rate movements. This could all change tomorrow or when I managed to sell of course but so far that was ok money terms. But I'm not happy over there and miss the UK. Its an extreme length to goto, to avoid paying bubble UK prices.

Is the south east crashing? Don't know but I've sold up there, only a shared ownership half rent half buy so not mega bucks but I'm glad I'm shot of it and that rent.

"When the last bear turns to a bull".... We have moved beyond that now here. I've lost faith, all the die hards have lost faith or bought. Nobody knows what is going on. Is that a sign when even the HPC site consensus doesn't think a crash is likely anymore.

I've also never seen the media so pro a HPC crash , which makes me think its not happening, they don't normally before a crash.

Glasgow is an interesting idea as long as the Scots accept an Englishman

Good post. Like you, I am an older member on this site, although actually bought in 2005 when I could afford something that looked affordable even if it wasn't the type of place I thought I would have expected to live. 

But property should not be something that makes people split up or move abroad. 

While I think that property is significantly over-valued, I don't think it will ever return to 3x the average wage. We are probably going to have a dip in the next 12 months+ and that might be a chance for some to enter the market. If things fall further then people can follow the market down a bit. 

But I was puzzled why some on HPC did not use the post financial crisis period to get on the ladder when they could afford to. 

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2 hours ago, bear.getting.old said:

I'm one of the original HPCers. I was studying HPI before this site even appeared. And apart from 2007-2009 the market proved me wrong. Many good posts here, I'm trying to respond to some without doing multiple quotes.

One of the main reasons my ex and I split was about settling down and buying a house and I wouldn't because I was convinced they would crash. Fast forward to 2019 and prices are 100k further up. I still miss the lady, like there is a gap in my life and wonder that putting personal finance above her was a stupid thing. Some people are one in a million, and you wonder if you'll ever meet similar.

In the old days of this forum the advice was  from many that you are in charge, if the gf won't wait to buy a house, get a new gf.

In hindsight to the OP,  maybe the thing I've learned is don't put life decisions off trying to time the market if you want to stay in the UK. It's a lot easier to buy a house for yourself if you need one - then if you are still wanting to ride the market or short it, do it with a second home when the time is right.

Re. moving abroad and giving up, well I did this and bought into the tail end of the Irish property crash, when I was advised not to. Prices seem to be going insane again there, looks like no lessons were learned and there will be another crash, but so far currently I'm up not only on value but exchange rate movements. This could all change tomorrow or when I managed to sell of course but so far that was ok money terms. But I'm not happy over there and miss the UK. Its an extreme length to goto, to avoid paying bubble UK prices.

Is the south east crashing? Don't know but I've sold up there, only a shared ownership half rent half buy so not mega bucks but I'm glad I'm shot of it and that rent.

"When the last bear turns to a bull".... We have moved beyond that now here. I've lost faith, all the die hards have lost faith or bought. Nobody knows what is going on. Is that a sign when even the HPC site consensus doesn't think a crash is likely anymore.

I've also never seen the media so pro a HPC crash , which makes me think its not happening, they don't normally before a crash.

Glasgow is an interesting idea as long as the Scots accept an Englishman

 

I have been following this site for about 15 years, i 100% agree with your assessment that we should have had a crash, and i would not buy, my other half forced me by nagging  at me constantly, she still mentions that if i had listen at the start we would have an extra £500k worth of assets.

She points at this particular house that is worth more than £1M that i refused to buy, all i see is a crime and drug infested area why a hipster would pay £1M plus ......

Edited by prozac

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1 hour ago, Ah-so said:

 

But I was puzzled why some on HPC did not use the post financial crisis period to get on the ladder when they could afford to. 

because some on here will never buy, they are going to meet their maker before that.  

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1 hour ago, Ah-so said:

 

But I was puzzled why some on HPC did not use the post financial crisis period to get on the ladder when they could afford to. 

I thought about it, nearly did, but I convinced myself that in 2009 the market had another 20% to fall. It didn't of course. I know a few people who piled in just as the US banks went bust, they were spot on at market bottom as it turned out. But at the time I thought they had gone in too soon.

Edited by bear.getting.old

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I sympathise with Prozac's sentiments. There are places that are intrinsically nice, a city with beautiful architecture, history, culture and civility, or somewhere in the countryside with stunning scenery. Places where you would choose to go on holiday. Then you have places that just got lucky, mainly because the more desirable areas went through the roof, and people need to justify to themselves paying 750 grand for a very ordinary three bed semi, facing a busy road, with a rough estate behind. Having a hipster bar, or a fancy cheese shop pop up wouldnt do it for me. 

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50 minutes ago, nothernsoul said:

I sympathise with Prozac's sentiments. There are places that are intrinsically nice, a city with beautiful architecture, history, culture and civility, or somewhere in the countryside with stunning scenery. Places where you would choose to go on holiday. Then you have places that just got lucky, mainly because the more desirable areas went through the roof, and people need to justify to themselves paying 750 grand for a very ordinary three bed semi, facing a busy road, with a rough estate behind. Having a hipster bar, or a fancy cheese shop pop up wouldnt do it for me. 

Right place, right time.....you could say the wrong place, wrong time.....when people are still calling it as right........follow the money, don't do as they say, do as they do.;)

Edited by winkie

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2 hours ago, funinhounslow said:

In all fairness I don't think anyone saw HTB coming...

That isn't true really. My parents certainly called a prop to come under the housing market like a HTB as this is basic politics. Politicians don't like seeing house prices falling reaffirmed by Kit Malthouse last month.

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1 minute ago, Pebbles said:

. Politicians don't like seeing house prices falling reaffirmed by Kit Malthouse last month.

What he say?

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5 hours ago, Ah-so said:

But I was puzzled why some on HPC did not use the post financial crisis period to get on the ladder when they could afford to. 

That is a very shallow statement. It's not about wanting a crash so one can buy the dip. I believe most people on here want the manipulation and props to end. I'm sure many on here could buy now if they wanted to, and many even own a property.

Edited by Captain Kirk

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19 hours ago, macca13 said:

Renting causes huge pressure on relationships, I have considered moving out before just so the council can pay the rent and give the kids a better life than working can provide.. 

I am sorry to hear that, a sad commentary on our benefit system

11 hours ago, nome said:

 I don't think the employment figures were so wildly skewed by the farce that is ''in work benefits'' that we now have.

Good point.

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