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chiefofwales

Nearing the end of my sanity..

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I've been a long time lurker and very rare poster. I have followed and studied this forum and lots of associated reading (Say Goodbye to all that buy to let to name one) for the last few years. It has been such a fantastic resource and breath of fresh air.

However, my HPC confidence  has come at a cost with my family and friends who think I am an absolute idiot. This is because for the last 5 years or so of my wife and I not buying a house, we've seen prices rise where even if there were a correction now we'd still be in worse off. The amount of times I have been told to buy now, what are you waiting for, rent is dead money etc is probably symptomatic of everyone else on here! But my belief is also being tested and I don't know how much longer we can all wait.

The point of my post is do people believe this is going to happen and within the next couple of years? We want to start a family and the thought of renting while raising a child is not something we want to do (given our current experiences to date). I am losing faith and this is the only place which seems sane.

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Brexit will make everything more expensive except houses, I reckon. Maybe we'll see a rapid house price crash after the Tenant fees ban and brexit have happened - so spring this year.

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I'd stop hanging out with your friends and family members. It sounds like they are trying to persuade you into doing something you know is not in your best interest but more likely in their best interest.

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On 04/01/2019 at 18:09, chiefofwales said:

However, my HPC confidence  has come at a cost with my family and friends who think I am an absolute idiot. This is because for the last 5 years or so of my wife and I not buying a house, we've seen prices rise where even if there were a correction now we'd still be in worse off. The amount of times I have been told to buy now, what are you waiting for, rent is dead money etc is probably symptomatic of everyone else on here! But my belief is also being tested and I don't know how much longer we can all wait.

 

On 04/01/2019 at 18:09, chiefofwales said:

The point of my post is do people believe this is going to happen and within the next couple of years? We want to start a family and the thought of renting while raising a child is not something we want to do (given our current experiences to date). I am losing faith and this is the only place which seems sane.

Asking people here if they think there will be a massive crash will only bring a positive response as that is what most people here hope for.  

With regards to sanity or otherwise - If you had bought 5 years ago you would have paid off 5 years mortgage even with no capital growth.  Assuming you had taken a 25 year mortgage you would have been 20% through the term.  

Perhaps you need to think of a home as a long term home and not a financial investment.   If you buy and it falls who cares if you are not planning to move and you have a base for your family. 

 

1 hour ago, EnglishinWales said:

Brexit will make everything more expensive except houses, I reckon. Maybe we'll see a rapid house price crash after the Tenant fees ban and brexit have happened - so spring this year.

 East Europeans do not buy houses they do low paid work.

When they go it will have some effect on rents

Apartment prices will fall as this is what landlords usually buy

Look then for lenders to make buying apartments easier

20 minutes ago, Captain Kirk said:

I'd stop hanging out with your friends and family members. It sounds like they are trying to persuade you into doing something you know is not in your best interest but more likely in their best interest.

I would stop being guided by friends and do what you want for yourself. 

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Group dynamics are difficult. Once a statement of belief is expressed people tend to enjoy tearing it apart without thought for the individual behind it.

You may feel you've dug yourself into this stance and they have entrenched themselves into theirs, as per our wonderful Brexit thread. 

What I will say is that the mental cost for this type of decision must not be underestimated. You may feel that buying would be 'giving in' to their pressure, but perhaps it would free you to think about and pursue other interests? Clearing mental space by putting to bed a constant worry is an amazing feeling of relief. 

If you and your wife want to buy a house then there are opportunities now and there will be opportunities in the future. As ever, study the market in your area. Study the streets, study the exact houses or flats. Learn everything you can so you know when to jump. 

And remind your family and friends that they're supposed to support you, not tear you down. 

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37 minutes ago, happyguy said:

East Europeans do not buy houses they do low paid work.

Not in my experience.  I have met plenty of Central European's who have bought property and are anything but low paid. This doesn't necessarily mean they will remain after Brexit but I think as a generalisation 'migrants = low pay' is not always accurate..

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On 04/01/2019 at 18:09, chiefofwales said:

However, my HPC confidence  has come at a cost with my family and friends who think I am an absolute idiot. This is because for the last 5 years or so of my wife and I not buying a house, we've seen prices rise where even if there were a correction now we'd still be in worse off.

I was trying to think of something helpful to say. That is not just "the crash is coming be patient", of course!

My experience of 2007/2008 - in terms of my life situation was to see the crash-that-should-have-been and all the bailing out (which continues apace today).

I really do feel the crash (which has never happened really) will regain momentum. How or what they will use to bail it out again/repump the bubble I don't know.

39 minutes ago, PeanutButter said:

And remind your family and friends that they're supposed to support you, not tear you down. 

Best comment I have seen on this website in a long time. If friends don't build you po they are not friends (or they are not thinking straight).

What I will say in terms of the current financial situation - the EU has printed 2.5 (or 2.7) trillion Euros. If now was the right time to buy (financially speaking) then this sort of thing would not have been necessary.

I say all this from a position of having bought a house 3.5 years ago - a financially daft decision if I had been in a position where I was forced to move.

It is only because I haven't had to move that the combined financial risk and the rent-paid-to-the-bank-as-interest and the capital "loss" of a falling house price hasn't bitten me. That is: hasn't bitten me yet.

Anyone who strings the "rent is dead money" mantra is totally unaware of the risks of having to move.

Edited by Aidan Ap Word
Punctuation.

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18 minutes ago, dougless said:

Not in my experience.  I have met plenty of Central European's who have bought property and are anything but low paid. This doesn't necessarily mean they will remain after Brexit but I think as a generalisation 'migrants = low pay' is not always accurate..

We certainly have home ownership here by Eastern Europeans. This seems to be prevalent in the Milton Keynes in particular (one on my list of places we are looking to buy in) and usually new builds on the help to buy scheme.

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25 minutes ago, dougless said:

Not in my experience.  I have met plenty of Central European's who have bought property and are anything but low paid. This doesn't necessarily mean they will remain after Brexit but I think as a generalisation 'migrants = low pay' is not always accurate..

Sorry I exaggerate somewhat my own experience is that vast majority are in l,ow paid jobs but of course that can be said of many UK born people and my physio is from Croatia and judging by the fees is not low paid.

I think the point I was trying  to make, none too succinctly is that the number of EU nationals;l who will leave or not come here will not hugely affect property prices.  

18 minutes ago, Aidan Ap Word said:

Anyone who strings the "rent is dead money" mantra is totally unaware of the risks of having to move.

Life is a risk 

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Looking at the HTB purchasers data it appears immigrants are over represenented compared to supposed proportion of the population. Another reason they don't want immigration to reduce

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54 minutes ago, Aidan Ap Word said:

Anyone who strings the "rent is dead money" mantra is totally unaware of the risks of having to move.

 

36 minutes ago, happyguy said:

Life is a risk

Yes, it is a risk.

But the OP is facing endless propaganda-inspired drivel from people who don't understand that buying is a risk .. and, yes, not buying a risk too ... but having a specific understanding of risks from your own perspective/in your own circumstances is an intelligent stance.

The OP is probably (by dint of being on this site) making decisions from a position of being (relatively) well informed.

The problem is: we cannot be informed about the endless pumps and supports to the the UK religion that is house prices - with the tax payer (including "chiefofwales") footing the bill every time. And our children being sold down the river.

On 04/01/2019 at 18:09, chiefofwales said:

The amount of times I have been told to buy now, what are you waiting for, rent is dead money etc

And when you respond to this propaganda/rubbish - that you are waiting for the market to return to reality - you get cold shouldered, patronised, shouted at, or all of the above.

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Part of the problem I think is that by taking a position against rising prices, you are seen to be taking a position against the best interests of your friends and relatives (by them).

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33 minutes ago, btd1981 said:

Part of the problem I think is that by taking a position against rising prices, you are seen to be taking a position against the best interests of your friends and relatives (by them).

Very wise point. Sadly, house values are held dearer than loved ones in this environment. 

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3 hours ago, happyguy said:

 

 East Europeans do not buy houses they do low paid work.

When they go it will have some effect on rents

Apartment prices will fall as this is what landlords usually buy

Look then for lenders to make buying apartments easier

I would stop being guided by friends and do what you want for yourself. 

Actually Europeans do buy property and they also let rooms out to their mates to help repay the debt.

It can take minimum of five years to save a deposit  from savings working, all the while prices are rising so ineffect going backwards, not everyone can borrow cheaply against equity that just happened to grow by doing absolutely nothing.......the next step of the rung will be too big a gap to step up to......lose,lose.😉

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On 1/4/2019 at 6:09 PM, chiefofwales said:

I've been a long time lurker and very rare poster. I have followed and studied this forum and lots of associated reading (Say Goodbye to all that buy to let to name one) for the last few years. It has been such a fantastic resource and breath of fresh air.

However, my HPC confidence  has come at a cost with my family and friends who think I am an absolute idiot. This is because for the last 5 years or so of my wife and I not buying a house, we've seen prices rise where even if there were a correction now we'd still be in worse off. The amount of times I have been told to buy now, what are you waiting for, rent is dead money etc is probably symptomatic of everyone else on here! But my belief is also being tested and I don't know how much longer we can all wait.

The point of my post is do people believe this is going to happen and within the next couple of years? We want to start a family and the thought of renting while raising a child is not something we want to do (given our current experiences to date). I am losing faith and this is the only place which seems sane.

If you think property is worth the money it is now then buy, if you don;t think property is worth the money then don't buy. Asking people to make your life decisions is just silly, people will tell you to buy and others won't, at the end of the day you have to make the call. I am personally not going to sell me soul just to be accepted and to give into peer pressure, even if it ends up that 80% plus are homeowners I still will not buy, property is massively over valued, but that is just my opinion.

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Though harsh, reclaiming your sanity entails leaving your wife, and forgoing the bogus dream of lifetime servitude to repay absurd debt on a noisy, pokey slavebox to shelter said wife and 2.4 hostages.

Give up on this contrived con. After initial pain, peaceful sanity will come, as well as freedom.

Give up.

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This may be an oversimplification - I am no economist.

In the late eighties, early nineties this place was on its knees. Panorama even aired a documentary (not a very good one) titled "will the South East ever work again?"

The situation we have now would be unsustainable but for its similarity to that in other large economies - no? Thereby making a major (pun intended) run on the pound risky and or less likely.

Now however, the behaviour of the Americans, the unknown effects of leaving the EU threaten this cosy little set up. Possibly. One will have to guess whether nonsense like HTB or lunatic levels of benefit dependency (if they even are, I don't really know) or whatever, will spark off the biggest denouement of a modern nation since 1923, as some think could happen. The fact that anybody has predicted it really  makes me wonder if it will. UK has been written off more times than I can remember in my lifetime.

Even so, if I had to guess I'd say that things are not sustainable as they are and there will be a day of reckoning not far ahead.  Does our leadership look like it has the skill and talent to deal with that? Er, not really.  But DYOR as ever.

 

 

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Difficult...Buy now at £100k plus more than you could have paid in 2013...accept the reality that all the hard work, saving, frugal living over last 5 years or longer has been for nothing...zero.

Difficult decision...consider the vendor you are giving all the fruits of your efforts to. Think about how they have done nothing to earn this and it will be untaxed unlike your labour and savings. Think about how this is all by design and the outcome of deliberate UKGOV policy of transfer of wealth to favoured groups.

Difficult decision. Hard to stomach...I would rather go overseas and take my money with me. 

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4 hours ago, happyguy said:

 

 

Asking people here if they think there will be a massive crash will only bring a positive response as that is what most people here hope for.  

With regards to sanity or otherwise - If you had bought 5 years ago you would have paid off 5 years mortgage even with no capital growth.  Assuming you had taken a 25 year mortgage you would have been 20% through the term.  

Perhaps you need to think of a home as a long term home and not a financial investment.   If you buy and it falls who cares if you are not planning to move and you have a base for your family. 

 

 East Europeans do not buy houses they do low paid work.

When they go it will have some effect on rents

Apartment prices will fall as this is what landlords usually buy

Look then for lenders to make buying apartments easier

I would stop being guided by friends and do what you want for yourself. 

Congratulations on doing mafs. U r a man of wonders. % too!

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4 hours ago, EnglishinWales said:

Brexit will make everything more expensive except houses, I reckon. Maybe we'll see a rapid house price crash after the Tenant fees ban and brexit have happened - so spring this year.

It's an interesting view given that the old [who often have zero housing cost] will therefore suffer on 100% of their spending whereas the young will gain some [cheaper housing]  lost some [dearer everything else] so come out even.

BUT. If we start getting tomatoes, cucumbers and corgettes from Algeria and Morocco instead of Spain and Netherlands.

AND Wine from Chile, California, South Africa etc instead of Spain, Germany and France

AND cars made in Japan and Korea rather than Germany and Czech rep.

ALL with whatever import tarriff UK want [WTO is a maximum not a fixed amount] WHY will these things be more expensive?

Almost everything is available from elsewhere cheaper than the EU provides them. The more expensive argument makes no sense.

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13 minutes ago, Wayward said:

Difficult...Buy now at £100k plus more than you could have paid in 2013...accept the reality that all the hard work, saving, frugal living over last 5 years or longer has been for nothing...zero.

Difficult decision...consider the vendor you are giving all the fruits of your efforts to. Think about how they have done nothing to earn this and it will be untaxed unlike your labour and savings. Think about how this is all by design and the outcome of deliberate UKGOV policy of transfer of wealth to favoured groups.

Difficult decision. Hard to stomach...I would rather go overseas and take my money with me. 

i can relate to this totally. 

saved hard houses 2x or more than 2008 savings have become worthless in real terms if money was designated for a house. 

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29 minutes ago, Bluestone59 said:

 

In the late eighties, early nineties this place was on its knees. Panorama even aired a documentary (not a very good one) titled "will the South East ever work again?"

 

 

That was a pretty mild though sharp recession.

Credit crunch was much worse.

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2 minutes ago, longgone said:

i can relate to this totally. 

saved hard houses 2x or more than 2008 savings have become worthless in real terms if money was designated for a house. 

I can never decide whether houses are worth more now or our money worth less...

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