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The highest AVG price in jul was 217k Dec AVG price now down to 212k. Over 5months that's 2.3% fall. If we carry on with this straight line level of reduction by July 19 the 12month fall could end up as 5.5%, but as anyone who watches prices be they shares or houses, the fall is a much steep angle once it gains momentum!

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7 minutes ago, pizza said:

If the monthly move for December is the same for the Halifax index, the next print of the Halifax index will be be MoM, QoQ and YoY negative.

I cant see any reason prices in Jan 2019 could be higher than Dec 2018 but these guys window-dress (manipulate) figures to make sure the masses dont notice

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9 minutes ago, crazypabs said:

The highest AVG price in jul was 217k Dec AVG price now down to 212k. Over 5months that's 2.3% fall. If we carry on with this straight line level of reduction by July 19 the 12month fall could end up as 5.5%, but as anyone who watches prices be they shares or houses, the fall is a much steep angle once it gains momentum!

UK average price is totally pointless. Covers slums in Mbro and Mansions in Kensington.

Its likes having an average mammal.

Pick a town.

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Great news; thanks for the reminder.

Give it a couple of months and finger's crossed there will no longer be any sources left for VIs to reference as showing growing house prices; the only headlines left being the inevitable and unequivocal "house prices are falling" :D

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1 hour ago, localhero1983 said:

Without a doubt the top 1% financial criminal acts in the 2008 financial crisis has hit the bottom 50-60% of the UK working food chain to the point where they just cannot be physically squeezed a drop more. Life has got so bad for some people it really is starting to resemble some of the dystopian films  in some areas. I am only awake for 5 minutes this morning with my cuppa and straight away I am reading about a teacher who cannot stand it anymore and considering driving into a tree to escape her working hell, war zones in our inner cities where there are now daily executions and debt debt and more debt related stories of people that just cannot cope anymore and who in some case work 80 hours plays between them in the case of couples.

Of course they should be turning on BTL big time, should have started a decade ago, the UK needs tax receipts and they along with others in the top 20% of the UK were the ones bragging over the dinner table how much they had been making in this economic miracle based on debt and house prices, now it's about time they started handing some of it back. Theresa May seems to be built as someone who is just stupid enough to lead us through Brexit and nothing else, but to me she is also someone who lives to see us get us through this STILL ongoing 2008 financial crisis without disturbing her and her friends cosy little village lives in anyway as she cripples the serfs.

Very nicely put. Many of my friends have BTL properties. They are genuinely well off, but as much as I love them as mates, it will be tiny violin time if their portfolios get shredded and they get taxed to oblivion. Some of them even vote Corbyn...they deserve to feel a little of the despair that everyone else does.

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50 minutes ago, crazypabs said:

The highest AVG price in jul was 217k Dec AVG price now down to 212k. Over 5months that's 2.3% fall. If we carry on with this straight line level of reduction by July 19 the 12month fall could end up as 5.5%, but as anyone who watches prices be they shares or houses, the fall is a much steep angle once it gains momentum!

Well put. All those people who took their gaff off the market in the last couple of months thinking of putting it back on in a buoyant Spring market with Bregzit out of the way will hopefully be in for a serious slapping.

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42 minutes ago, spyguy said:

UK average price is totally pointless. Covers slums in Mbro and Mansions in Kensington.

Its likes having an average mammal.

Pick a town.

You are correct of course but it's all about sentiment for me. It needs to get into the mainstream that prices are dropping to create a nice whiff of fear in the air.

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1 minute ago, Sperm Donor said:

You are correct of course but it's all about sentiment for me. It needs to get into the mainstream that prices are dropping to create a nice whiff of fear in the air.

Yes sentiment needs to change still at christmas people were discussing here in sw london about buying new build property to appreciate in value as it is better than money in the bank. They still expect prices to appreciate (I the most recent albeit cash buyer of a  house) was the only one expecting a fall. And much like the boy who cried wolf my musings (and repeatings of stuff on here) are ignored as alamism (standard stopped clock is always right twice a day) as people in the family still complete transactions and come out with more money. I've given up now brought a cheap house and will be ready to move in 2 years time if need be I will have no debt and any HPC will allow me to trade up.

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Well, they managed it...

U.K. Financial Services (Banking Reform) Act 2013 (Commencement No. 12) brings into force, from January 1, 2019, those provisions of the Financial Services (Banking Reform) Act 2013 on ring-fencing that are not already in force, including the prohibition on ringfenced bodies to carry on excluded activities and provisions on group restructuring.

Still up 0.5% YOY and the ringfence activity is done and dusted. I always said Jan 1st 2019 was the date they were aiming at and after that it may be 'allowed' to go... looks like they managed it. Income tax deadline for BTLers hits 31st Jan. Brexit may add noise either side of March, but we should be looking at YOY negative next month?

I suspect that it's finally coming.

Edited by disenfranchised

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I've got Rightmove searches set up for several areas around me in Bucks and Beds. Not looked at these over Xmas.

The Leighton Buzzard one isn't showing much in the way of additions or reductions but the Milton Keynes one is showing a good influx of new listings plus a couple of properties that didn't sell this year and now listed again afresh. Asking prices still stupid but I've now got a good batch to follow and see if any sell and at what price. 

I've written before about a new build development in MK and the glut of 4 BR homes on the market. Some good news on a drive past. Most of these houses have been taken off the market but there is a 3BR and one of the 4BR's showing with "sale" signs. 

The good news is that the branch of "Connells" that opened in a new parade of shops 18 months or so has closed down. Don't think they managed one sale in the last 6 months.

 

Edited by Flopsy

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1 minute ago, Freki said:

@disenfranchised mind explaining the thing you quoted? I don't understand it

Massive project in banking that has been going on for the past 5 years or more (I started working on it in 2013, did some more 2015-2017) to seperate the balance sheets of major UK banks between Retail activities & Investment and Corporate activities.

In theory, if any of the banks become insolvent again, only the Retail side will be bailed out by the Goverbankment. Theoretically, the risk exposure of the country to our own banks is now relatively simple to understand. 

I have always felt a certain amount of "keepy uppy" was quietly inevitable until this was complete.

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47 minutes ago, Flopsy said:

I've got Rightmove searches set up for several areas around me in Bucks and Beds. Not looked at these over Xmas.

The Leighton Buzzard one isn't showing much in the way of additions or reductions but the Milton Keynes one is showing a good influx of new listings plus a couple of properties that didn't sell this year and now listed again afresh. Asking prices still stupid but I've now got a good batch to follow and see if any sell and at what price. 

I've written before about a new build development in MK and the glut of 4 BR homes on the market. Some good news on a drive past. Most of these houses have been taken off the market but there is a 3BR and one of the 4BR's showing with "sale" signs. 

The good news is that the branch of "Connells" that opened in a new parade of shops 18 months or so has closed down. Don't think they managed one sale in the last 6 months.

 

The way they are building housing developments and warehouses between Luton and MK they will virtually be one town soon !

 

 

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57 minutes ago, disenfranchised said:

Massive project in banking that has been going on for the past 5 years or more (I started working on it in 2013, did some more 2015-2017) to seperate the balance sheets of major UK banks between Retail activities & Investment and Corporate activities.

In theory, if any of the banks become insolvent again, only the Retail side will be bailed out by the Goverbankment. Theoretically, the risk exposure of the country to our own banks is now relatively simple to understand. 

I have always felt a certain amount of "keepy uppy" was quietly inevitable until this was complete.

Interesting.......anyway a three bedroom or even two bedroom is bigger than many new four bedrooms.......shrinkflation in both quality and size.....off shopping now.;)

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3 hours ago, HovelinHove said:

The economy is doing well, unemployment is at its lowest in generations etc and yet house price changes are about to turn -ve YoY. This is more than just Brexit. Brexit has not stopped companies investing in the UK and immigration has barely slowed. I think people just can’t afford homes any more, and investors globally are getting nervous about house prices. I think BTL has been and will become even more a target for the treasury...policies especially popular with young voters. 

If the global economy does go in reverse, as many indicators are now suggesting, and we have a clean Brexit, then I could easily see 30% drops over the next 18 months. Another Euro crisis, shadow banking collapses in China, US stocks losing all of the past decade’s gains...all possible.

House prices are down to credit once they become totally detached from earnings your in trouble.

When economy moving demand for money/inflation increases.

= Bad for house prices

When economy crap government spunks cheap money all over the place.

= good for house prices

You then end up in the paradox good news is bad news for house prices.

This time rates are up in the US unless they come down can the BOE really cut near 0 rates/print/FLS again to boost house prices without utterly destroying the £.

 

Edited by Fromage Frais

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27 minutes ago, winkie said:

Interesting.......anyway a three bedroom or even two bedroom is bigger than many new four bedrooms.......shrinkflation in both quality and size.....off shopping now.;)

They never put the room sizes on the floor plans...always a clear indicator size is not a USP.

As long as you dont have any clothes happy days as the built in wardrobe/place for one has all but vanished in new builds.

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1 hour ago, Pebbles said:

Yes sentiment needs to change still at christmas people were discussing here in sw london about buying new build property to appreciate in value as it is better than money in the bank. They still expect prices to appreciate (I the most recent albeit cash buyer of a  house) was the only one expecting a fall. And much like the boy who cried wolf my musings (and repeatings of stuff on here) are ignored as alamism (standard stopped clock is always right twice a day) as people in the family still complete transactions and come out with more money. I've given up now brought a cheap house and will be ready to move in 2 years time if need be I will have no debt and any HPC will allow me to trade up.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46748966

Extract from the BBC report..

"Meanwhile thousands of would-be sellers are instead hunkering down and waiting until things improve before putting their home on the market."

Seems they are not satisfied with 30%+ increase since 2013...we need more wealth shifted from the young and poor into the hands of the old and rich...

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5 minutes ago, Fromage Frais said:

They never put the room sizes on the floor plans...always a clear indicator size is not a USP.

As long as you dont have any clothes happy days as the built in wardrobe/place for one has all but vanished in new builds.

In Europe they do routinely record price per square metre.  Approach in UK by EAs is to obfuscate.  But then why worry its only the most important financial decision you will ever make and determine your economic wellbeing for the rest of your life.

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1 hour ago, disenfranchised said:

Massive project in banking that has been going on for the past 5 years or more (I started working on it in 2013, did some more 2015-2017) to seperate the balance sheets of major UK banks between Retail activities & Investment and Corporate activities.

In theory, if any of the banks become insolvent again, only the Retail side will be bailed out by the Goverbankment. Theoretically, the risk exposure of the country to our own banks is now relatively simple to understand. 

I have always felt a certain amount of "keepy uppy" was quietly inevitable until this was complete.

Thanks, very clear. I hope that they will hold any pressure put on it when TSHTF

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watched a bit of Jeremy vine this morning at least the presenters picked up on the overpaid CEO of persimmon taking advantage of government subsidies and not any kind of talent involved. 

pretty sure a a 18yo college leaver with an afternoon of sales tactics course could do the blokes job. 

45m quid to build a few crap new builds propped up my tax payers money and siphoned off. 

Tory all over that. 

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1 hour ago, longgone said:

watched a bit of Jeremy vine this morning at least the presenters picked up on the overpaid CEO of persimmon taking advantage of government subsidies and not any kind of talent involved. 

pretty sure a a 18yo college leaver with an afternoon of sales tactics course could do the blokes job. 

45m quid to build a few crap new builds propped up my tax payers money and siphoned off. 

Tory all over that. 

Not long ago I did a few fag-packet calculations and it seems each sale earned him almost £3k towards his £45m bonus. I sorely wish Mr and Mrs average understood this cynical reality this when they're getting excited about the government 'helping them to buy'. 

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4 hours ago, winkie said:

Interesting.......anyway a three bedroom or even two bedroom is bigger than many new four bedrooms.......shrinkflation in both quality and size.....off shopping now.;)

I put a spreadsheet together a while ago for working out price per square foot. I was doing it in a couple of ways, one based upon living space only, the other based on footprint. Most of the nicer older houses have a lower ratio of living space to total area as well as having larger rooms. New houses are just awful.

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6 hours ago, HovelinHove said:

Very nicely put. Many of my friends have BTL properties. They are genuinely well off, but as much as I love them as mates, it will be tiny violin time if their portfolios get shredded and they get taxed to oblivion. Some of them even vote Corbyn...they deserve to feel a little of the despair that everyone else does.

I can raise that, I have family who have BTL and I seriously will not shed a tear for one of them

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7 hours ago, Wayward said:

In Europe they do routinely record price per square metre.  Approach in UK by EAs is to obfuscate.  But then why worry its only the most important financial decision you will ever make and determine your economic wellbeing for the rest of your life.

This.  They live to show that something is a "four bedroom house" or whatever, but they neglect to point out the 3 and 4th bedrooms would be considered closets in other countries.

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