Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum

Recommended Posts

My expectation is 1.2% on the basis that I think prices have plateaued but the prior year figure increases from 209k to 211k thus reducing the gap. If the AVG this month does drop then we could easily see under 1% annual increase. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

BBC R4 still questioning the Nationwide talking head just now in a way that makes look house price growth like normal and a good thing. Really ******s me off, that. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, stuckmojo said:

BBC R4 still questioning the Nationwide talking head just now in a way that makes look house price growth like normal and a good thing. Really ******s me off, that. 

The tone on BBC (and MSM in general) is always "HPI good... HP Falls bad". For god's sake! They trumpet the needs of the young (when it supposedly supports Remain) but ignore it when it supports HPC.  HPC would free up people's cash to spend and support the economy, reduce housing benefit bill, etc etc.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, Sausage said:

The tone on BBC (and MSM in general) is always "HPI good... HP Falls bad". For god's sake! They trumpet the needs of the young (when it supposedly supports Remain) but ignore it when it supports HPC.  HPC would free up people's cash to spend and support the economy, reduce housing benefit bill, etc etc.

That's a level of intellect/independent thinking far higher than the standard seen around the British media. Most people are brainwashed drones. This shows it perfectly 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

From the BBC:

"The Nationwide's chief economist, Robert Gardner, told the BBC the severity of the slowdown was unexpected: "It is a little bit surprising that house price growth has slowed as much as it has in the last month or so.

"It seems to be the uncertain economic outlook that is really weighing on buyer sentiment. I think once that lifts then things should start to pick up to normal levels of about 2%."

Because, as every obedient citizen knows, 'normal' is and should be at least a dream-crushing, future-sapping 2%. Otherwise....... well...... It's just not normal....... Is it?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, Freezer? Best place for it said:

BBC talking to Nationwide about HPI.  The definition of stupidity.

 

NW is *the* lender now in London/SE.
Its the dumbest money - IO BTL and HTB central.

if NW crank its lending in - and it has - then London/SE prices falls., which will cause NW to crank its lending in more, which cause London/Se prices to fall, which will .....

NW price surveys are not interesting.

Whether NW is a going concern is much more interesting.

Chatting to the NW about prices is not interesting. Chatting to NW is they are in talks with BoE about their lending and whether they need to be resolved *is* interesting.

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

From the BBC:

"The Nationwide's chief economist, Robert Gardner, told the BBC the severity of the slowdown was unexpected: "It is a little bit surprising that house price growth has slowed as much as it has in the last month or so.

"It seems to be the uncertain economic outlook that is really weighing on buyer sentiment. I think once that lifts then things should start to pick up to normal levels of about 2%."

Because, as every obedient citizen knows, 'normal' is and should be at least a dream-crushing, future-sapping 2%. Otherwise....... well...... It's just not normal....... Is it?

Yeah, makes you wonder where they get from, and whetehr he means real or nominal.

Career from his linkin:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

So YoY has fallen significantly to just 0.5%. Looking forward to Monday when Halifax figures are out, they are going to have to work some serious magic to stop those YoY figures from being negative.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
26 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

From the BBC:

"The Nationwide's chief economist, Robert Gardner, told the BBC the severity of the slowdown was unexpected: "It is a little bit surprising that house price growth has slowed as much as it has in the last month or so.

"It seems to be the uncertain economic outlook that is really weighing on buyer sentiment. I think once that lifts then things should start to pick up to normal levels of about 2%."

Because, as every obedient citizen knows, 'normal' is and should be at least a dream-crushing, future-sapping 2%. Otherwise....... well...... It's just not normal....... Is it?

I guess it's because the BoE has a target to make inflation 2%pa, so - all other things being equal - that would result in 2% HPI (as well as 2% wage growth etc)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
32 minutes ago, Freezer? Best place for it said:

BBC talking to Nationwide about HPI.  The definition of stupidity.

 

I have just logged in to have a whinge about the BBC and it seems people have already got in there first. I have kept my eyes on the indicies for a long time now, even the ones that I have claimed are crap. But this is the first time for the BBC over the last few months  to have give us the report with this type of narrative where they focus from the start on YOY, I suspect because it is still a plus number, they really are s***s.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The economy is doing well, unemployment is at its lowest in generations etc and yet house price changes are about to turn -ve YoY. This is more than just Brexit. Brexit has not stopped companies investing in the UK and immigration has barely slowed. I think people just can’t afford homes any more, and investors globally are getting nervous about house prices. I think BTL has been and will become even more a target for the treasury...policies especially popular with young voters. 

If the global economy does go in reverse, as many indicators are now suggesting, and we have a clean Brexit, then I could easily see 30% drops over the next 18 months. Another Euro crisis, shadow banking collapses in China, US stocks losing all of the past decade’s gains...all possible.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
29 minutes ago, LetsBuild said:

 they are going to have to work some serious magic to stop those YoY figures from being negative.

A huge V.I with unaudited data to influence the “market” by  it’s numbers and words.  Let me think......

Edited by Freezer? Best place for it
Typo

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, HovelinHove said:

The economy is doing well, unemployment is at its lowest in generations etc and yet house price changes are about to turn -ve YoY. This is more than just Brexit. Brexit has not stopped companies investing in the UK and immigration has barely slowed. I think people just can’t afford homes any more, and investors globally are getting nervous about house prices. I think BTL has been and will become even more a target for the treasury...policies especially popular with young voters. 

If the global economy does go in reverse, as many indicators are now suggesting, and we have a clean Brexit, then I could easily see 30% drops over the next 18 months. Another Euro crisis, shadow banking collapses in China, US stocks losing all of the past decade’s gains...all possible.

Without a doubt the top 1% financial criminal acts in the 2008 financial crisis has hit the bottom 50-60% of the UK working food chain to the point where they just cannot be physically squeezed a drop more. Life has got so bad for some people it really is starting to resemble some of the dystopian films  in some areas. I am only awake for 5 minutes this morning with my cuppa and straight away I am reading about a teacher who cannot stand it anymore and considering driving into a tree to escape her working hell, war zones in our inner cities where there are now daily executions and debt debt and more debt related stories of people that just cannot cope anymore and who in some case work 80 hours plays between them in the case of couples.

Of course they should be turning on BTL big time, should have started a decade ago, the UK needs tax receipts and they along with others in the top 20% of the UK were the ones bragging over the dinner table how much they had been making in this economic miracle based on debt and house prices, now it's about time they started handing some of it back. Theresa May seems to be built as someone who is just stupid enough to lead us through Brexit and nothing else, but to me she is also someone who lives to see us get us through this STILL ongoing 2008 financial crisis without disturbing her and her friends cosy little village lives in anyway as she cripples the serfs.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
31 minutes ago, scottbeard said:

I guess it's because the BoE has a target to make inflation 2%pa, so - all other things being equal - that would result in 2% HPI (as well as 2% wage growth etc)

If you look at the NW timeline House price graph it only takes us back to march 2013 prices.....no big deal considering house price inflation for a long time have been way in excess of HPI inflation......

With regard to wages it requires two good wages with plus inflation wages compounded over plus 25 years to buy a home........very many more do not pair up to buy a home, they live alone, do not have children, if they do they don't always support them, expecting/relying on the state to because sometimes they have no other choice, breakdown of financial and emotional relationships.....life works out to be far cheaper if can share resources with others long-term, have a reliable income long-term, this is happening less not more......soon if things carry on three full time wages and a hefty deposit only way can own a piece of the UK no rent to pay.😉

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If the monthly move for December is the same for the Halifax index, the next print of the Halifax index will be be MoM, QoQ and YoY negative.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
21 minutes ago, rantnrave said:

House prices were ticking along just fine at 5% growth until that pesky Brexit vote came along, according to the Guardian's write up:

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/jan/04/uk-house-prices-take-pre-brexit-hit-says-nationwide

Just naive.

Outside of London you can see what happened in the LR data - sales collapsed.

Hardly unsurprising as there was a massive credit bubble based on housing.

Transaction have been flatlining for ~10 years.

Now, with MMR being brought in and the the fact that loads of places have now seen the age of home owners rise well into mortality, you are seeing a tick down in prices as there is few people to buy bigger houses and the owners are dying off.

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • 292 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.