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PeanutButter

30 Risks to market in 2019

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4 minutes ago, PeanutButter said:

21 is a surprise to me. People on here seem to cite Germany as a housing market example, free of bubbles because of their rental rules...

Apparently there is a shift towards ownership in some parts of Germany and it is starting to inflate housing costs.

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Nuclear accident, nuclear war, Russia invades China, a meteorite the size of London hits the Lake District, aliens attack the earth with death rays, the plague, the earth moves out of its orbit

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41 minutes ago, dougless said:

Apparently there is a shift towards ownership in some parts of Germany and it is starting to inflate housing costs.

Interesting. It seems people are unhappy about it too. 

 

Private landlords to the rescue:

 One of the government's ideas for jump-starting the housing market is to offer tax incentives to investors. According to the plan, private investors would be able to write-off up to 5 percent of the acquisition and construction costs of new apartment buildings. Coupled with existing annual write-offs of 2 percent, that adds up to some 28 percent in the first four years. The write-offs, however, would only apply to apartments that are let for 10 years. The new law has no provisions for a rent cap.

 

And:

Germany's conservative chancellor, Angela Merkel, reaffirmed the government's commitment to build 1.5 million housing units within the current legislative period. "We desperately need more housing in Germany

 

https://m.dw.com/en/germanys-soaring-housing-prices-spark-calls-for-reform/a-45595777

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6 minutes ago, PeanutButter said:

Interesting. It seems people are unhappy about it too. 

 

Private landlords to the rescue:

 One of the government's ideas for jump-starting the housing market is to offer tax incentives to investors. According to the plan, private investors would be able to write-off up to 5 percent of the acquisition and construction costs of new apartment buildings. Coupled with existing annual write-offs of 2 percent, that adds up to some 28 percent in the first four years. The write-offs, however, would only apply to apartments that are let for 10 years. The new law has no provisions for a rent cap.

 

And:

Germany's conservative chancellor, Angela Merkel, reaffirmed the government's commitment to build 1.5 million housing units within the current legislative period. "We desperately need more housing in Germany

 

https://m.dw.com/en/germanys-soaring-housing-prices-spark-calls-for-reform/a-45595777

If only we had that honesty in the UK.

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10 minutes ago, winkie said:

Demand for housing is the economy.😉

 

2018 FTBs at highest level since 2006 thanks to stamp duty relief, Help to Buy equity loans, Help to Buy ISAs and the return of 95% LTV mortagages etc. etc.

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/first-time-buyer-mortgage-numbers-000100887.html

Quote

The number of first-time buyers getting on the property ladder with a mortgage in the last 12 months was at its highest level since 2006, according to estimates from a building society.

Across the UK, 367,038 first-time buyers secured mortgages in 2018, up from 362,800 in 2017, analysis from Yorkshire Building Society suggests.

The figures suggest first-time buyer levels now represent half (50%) of all homes bought with a mortgage.

The Yorkshire said its findings indicate the first-time buyer mortgage market share across 2018 reached its highest levels since 1995, when 53% of all mortgage-financed homes were bought by first-time buyers.

It made the calculations based on market-wide first-time buyer data from trade association UK Finance using figures which run up to October.

The society also estimated figures for November and December based on previous first-time buyer patterns.

The analysis indicates the number of first-time buyer mortgages in 2018 was nearly double of that in 2008 (193,300) and stood just 9% lower than a pre-crisis peak of 402,800 in 2006.

Nitesh Patel, Yorkshire Building Society’s strategic economist, said: “Property prices have grown at a faster rate than wages over the past decade, which has created difficulties for first-time buyers.

“Various factors have helped to alleviate this challenging environment, although the market is still pretty tough for those wanting to become homeowners.

“However, the figures indicate that Government initiatives such as stamp duty relief, Help to Buy equity loans and Help to Buy Isas may have made an impact.

“Over the past three or four years, we’ve also seen more mortgage lenders offering 95% loan-to-value mortgages, as well as strong competition driving mortgage rates down.”

He said while buying a home may have become more accessible in some ways “getting on to the housing ladder is still not an easy step for many young people, as demonstrated by the increasing numbers who have received help from the bank of mum and dad”.

 

 

 

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I wonder if they are all 1st time buyers......husband and wife, son and daughter can buy four properties between them......rent three out?......is that possible?😉

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16 hours ago, PeanutButter said:

Found this via link from Aussie house price crash article. Quite useful bingo card.

 

63697BBD-678D-4059-8C13-A1E577458B65.jpeg

 

....what about .....?

 

 

Quote

 

Germany: In any bear market, there is always one market that gets hit the hardest (after the dot com bust, for example, it was arguably the FTSE which took almost two decades to claw back its 1999 level). What will it be this time around? Take a look at Germany’s DAX. It has already been one of the most miserable performers of any developed country index. It is down 22pc from its 2018 peak, compared with a European average of 16pc.

 

Even worse, almost half its members are in some form of crisis, from the auto-makers to Deutsche Bank, to industrial giants such as Bayer. Its giant car manufacturers account for 30pc of the index, and the chemicals companies for another 20pc, and those are both very challenging industries.

 

Over this bear market, investors will come to realise how hollowed out and backward-looking the German industrial machine has become.

A bear market is never much fun for anyone. It exposes a lot of flawed business models, over-hyped trends, and inept, incompetent management. Companies that were unsustainable get found out, banks that have over-stretched themselves run into trouble, and central banks have their nerve and skill tested along with ordinary investors. This one won’t be any different. It promises to be a rough ride – and it is only just starting.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2018/12/28/bear-market-coming-five-possible-victims/?li_source=LI&li_medium=li-recommendation-widget

 

 

 


 

 

Edited by South Lorne

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  • 294 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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