How much will UK GDP go down to in 2019

[simvastatin]

British GDP has fallen steadily from $3tn in 2014, according to World Bank figures

In 2018 UK GDP went down to $2.6tn

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/04/london-to-lose-900-billion-to-frankfurt-due-to-brexit-finance-group-says.html

After the loss of $900bn to Frankfurt what will GDP go down to in 2019

[localhero1983]

That is just dumb question to ask right now as there are too many anomalies . If Brexit is reversed or on the ever end of the spectrum we get a hard Brexit GDP could be wildly different 

[simvastatin]

58 minutes ago, localhero1983 said:

That is just dumb question to ask right now as there are too many anomalies . If Brexit is reversed or on the ever end of the spectrum we get a hard Brexit GDP could be wildly different 

 

No punishment beatings if you get it wrong.

Edited December 31, 2018 by prozac

[scottbeard]

"Steady decline since 2014" is factually correct and kind of leads one into suggesting it might continue the trend down - but looking at the chart of GDP "broadly flat since 2004" is also factually correct, as is "has increased 60% since 2001".

I'm guessing that the GBP:USD exchange rate has a massive impact on this figure too.

I don't think I can make any kind of informed guess about 2019.

[localhero1983]

25 minutes ago, scottbeard said:

"Steady decline since 2014" is factually correct and kind of leads one into suggesting it might continue the trend down - but looking at the chart of GDP "broadly flat since 2004" is also factually correct, as is "has increased 60% since 2001".

I'm guessing that the GBP:USD exchange rate has a massive impact on this figure too.

I don't think I can make any kind of informed guess about 2019.

If we get a hard Brexit GDP plummets, if Brexit is somehow stopped the fall will be more gradual. Brexit or no Brexit GDP and other economic issues  were always going to get worse.

[scottbeard]

1 minute ago, localhero1983 said:

If we get a hard Brexit GDP plummets, if Brexit is somehow stopped the fall will be more gradual. Brexit or no Brexit GDP and other economic issues  were always going to get worse.

If Brexit is stopped, the GBP will shoot up 10-15%, reversing the 2016 drops.  This would outweigh any recessionary contraction.

So ultimately UK GDP (as measured in dollars) could do absolutely anything in 2019.  I definitely can't sensibly estimate it to the nearest $0.2tn as per the poll question.

[MarkG]

24 minutes ago, scottbeard said:

I'm guessing that the GBP:USD exchange rate has a massive impact on this figure too. 

But the exchange rate is largely driven by how well the economies are doing. Trump is bringing business back to America, which pushes up GDP. The UK has exported most of its real work, and the economy is now based on selling ever-more-overpriced houses to each other. The only way to grow GDP is to keep house prices going up, which hasn't been happening lately.

That said, odds are the exchange rate right now is being pushed down by the globalist bankers, who want to punish Britons for voting against them.

[scottbeard]

2 minutes ago, MarkG said:

But the exchange rate is largely driven by how well the economies are doing. Trump is bringing business back to America, which pushes up GDP. The UK has exported most of its real work, and the economy is now based on selling ever-more-overpriced houses to each other. 

Now that's a fair point - yes, the exchange rate is linked to economic performance.  And yes Trump has been "good for business" over 2016-18. But we are about to enter the next global recession in 2019, and we've already seen the US stockmarket slump, and we don't know how Brexit will pan out (or even for sure it will happen).,

Even if you take as an absolute 100% given that the US will outperform the UK in 2019 I still don't see how you can make an educated guess as to UK GDP in 2019 to the nearest $0.2tn.

[Harry Sacks]

As long as more value can be pulled into the present from the future, GDP should rise. However, if the ability to service that borrowed value can't keep up, it will fall.

[chronyx]

18 minutes ago, dom said:

the ability to service that borrowed value

Our finest minds are working on that, and only that.

[dpg50000]

Surely GDP is irrelevant, as they can (and will) keep importing people to try and make it rise. Per-capita GDP is another matter entirely.

And there should be a supplementary question in this poll - How much of any drop will be blamed on Brexit?

Because as we all know the British economy was a model for the rest of the world before the Brexit referendum </SarcasmModeOff>

[localhero1983]

1 hour ago, scottbeard said:

If Brexit is stopped, the GBP will shoot up 10-15%, reversing the 2016 drops.  This would outweigh any recessionary contraction.

So ultimately UK GDP (as measured in dollars) could do absolutely anything in 2019.  I definitely can't sensibly estimate it to the nearest $0.2tn as per the poll question.

Good point.

And like I already pointed out to the opening poster, next year could go anywhere, apart from Brexit there are some far bigger concerns IMO, concerns a number of posters have already picked up on this website, my big one is DEBT, oh boy that is going to bite us at some point.

 

P.S  for the record I have not take part in the poll, it would be just a finger in the air guess

Edited December 31, 2018 by localhero1983

[MarkG]

51 minutes ago, scottbeard said:

But we are about to enter the next global recession in 2019, and we've already seen the US stockmarket slump, and we don't know how Brexit will pan out (or even for sure it will happen).,

The stock market is not the economy. Much of the US market is driven by foreign profits by multinational companies and, in recent years, by stock buybacks with artificially-cheap money. It's quite likely that 2019 will see a booming US economy and a sinking stock market, as Trump brings more and more outsourced business back to America.

[simvastatin]

56 minutes ago, scottbeard said:

Now that's a fair point - yes, the exchange rate is linked to economic performance.  And yes Trump has been "good for business" over 2016-18. But we are about to enter the next global recession in 2019, and we've already seen the US stockmarket slump, and we don't know how Brexit will pan out (or even for sure it will happen).,

Even if you take as an absolute 100% given that the US will outperform the UK in 2019 I still don't see how you can make an educated guess as to UK GDP in 2019 to the nearest $0.2tn.

You missed out the affect of the unexplained wealth order.

[MarkG]

1 hour ago, scottbeard said:

If Brexit is stopped, the GBP will shoot up 10-15%, reversing the 2016 drops.  This would outweigh any recessionary contraction.

If Brexit is stopped, you're looking at a Labour government at best, and civil war at worst. Any economic rebound would be short-lived, to say the least.

And even if Corbyn didn't turn the country into a communist utopia, you'd still have an economy based on selling ever-more-overpriced houses to each other. That's the real problem, which EU membership only exacerbates by encouraging companies to ship more and more real work to cheap EU nations.

[simvastatin]

3 minutes ago, MarkG said:

The stock market is not the economy. Much of the US market is driven by foreign profits by multinational companies and, in recent years, by stock buybacks with artificially-cheap money. It's quite likely that 2019 will see a booming US economy and a sinking stock market, as Trump brings more and more outsourced business back to America.

I would never admit this to any of my guardian reading friends from Islington, but I quite like Trump 

[scottbeard]

19 minutes ago, MarkG said:

If Brexit is stopped, you're looking at a Labour government at best, and civil war at worst. Any economic rebound would be short-lived, to say the least.

And even if Corbyn didn't turn the country into a communist utopia, you'd still have an economy based on selling ever-more-overpriced houses to each other. That's the real problem, which EU membership only exacerbates by encouraging companies to ship more and more real work to cheap EU nations.

Re: Civil war - I did think that was a risk originally (and still think the best plan probably is to leave now, and rejoin in 10 years say once immigration issues throughout Europe are more under control).  However, after some thinking and discussion, I've come to the view that civil war is seriously unlikely.  The most likely way in which Brexit would be cancelled would be a second referendum that returned a Remain vote, and in that case how many Leave voters HONESTLY care enough about leaving the EU to risk their life and liberty fighting the government about it, knowing that they are in a minority? 

On the UK economy - there is no doubt that there needs to be a greater focus on manufacturing and other "proper work" in the UK, and not outsourcing it to other countries.  However, it doesn't make sense to say we have an economy based on selling houses - when this website started SOME working people couldn't afford a house.  Now MOST working people can't afford a house - estate agents have been laying people off and going bust, DIY chains have closed or downsized...if anything, the proportion of our economy based around housing has fallen over the last 5 years.  

[Captain Kirk]

Bit of a loaded question isn't it?

[simvastatin]

12 minutes ago, Captain Kirk said:

Bit of a loaded question isn't it?

It is a shocking question,  also very scary in its implications, it does shake to the foundations 

[MarkG]

25 minutes ago, scottbeard said:

However, after some thinking and discussion, I've come to the view that civil war is seriously unlikely.

The British are the nicest people in the world, until they're not. The won't riot in the streets like the French, they'll be nice and polite one day, then burn London to the ground the next.

And I'd say the Leavers I know are getting pretty close to 'not' these days.

Quote

if anything, the proportion of our economy based around housing has fallen over the last 5 years.

Which, oddly enough, is the same kind of time period in which GDP has flatlined.

Edited December 31, 2018 by MarkG

[Steppenpig]

GDP will increase about 1.5% in sterling. Measuring in someone else's currency only makes sense if doing an international comparison.

[Captain Kirk]

39 minutes ago, prozac said:

It is a shocking question,  also very scary in its implications, it does shake to the foundations 

Very true. So how often will you be beating your wife in 2019, prozac? Once a month, twice?

Edited December 31, 2018 by Captain Kirk
tweaked the question

[simvastatin]

6 minutes ago, Captain Kirk said:

Very true. So how often will you be beating your wife in 2019, prozac? Once a month, twice?

We have a modern marriage she beats me.

[winkie]

OECD forecast.?

https://data.oecd.org/gdp/real-gdp-forecast.htm

[simvastatin]

11 minutes ago, winkie said:

OECD forecast.?

https://data.oecd.org/gdp/real-gdp-forecast.htm

OH WELL, 

Statistics prove that i am completely wrong.

LOL