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ONS House Price Index Oct 2018 (released Dec 18th)

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Average house prices in the UK increased by 2.7% in the year to October 2018, down from 3.0% in September 2018 (Figure 1). This is the lowest annual rate since July 2013 when it was 2.3%. Over the past two years, there has been a slowdown in UK house price growth, driven mainly by a slowdown in the south and east of England.

The lowest annual growth was in London, where prices fell by 1.7% over the year to October 2018, up from a fall of 1.8% in the year to September 2018.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/housepriceindex/october2018

England Report:

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/uk-house-price-index-england-october-2018/uk-house-price-index-england-october-2018

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Let me guess, this fella's purchases are off the books because it is likely to be company purchases rather than title transfers, and at discounts of estimated 30% this would make a massive dent in the real figures

https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/business/riding-the-brexit-wave-an-israeli-just-bought-1-200-london-apartments-in-cash-1.6759335

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>Look at the difference between the new build and existing price changes. It looks like Help to Buy is still working to prop up prices.

I saw rantnrave's post and wondered if Help to Buy was the culprit as most stuff seems to be falling near me (London). Lo and behold, Lombardo makes his post. Thanks, both. This site is like a prescription for sanity.

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5 minutes ago, Voice of Doom said:

>Look at the difference between the new build and existing price changes. It looks like Help to Buy is still working to prop up prices.

I saw rantnrave's post and wondered if Help to Buy was the culprit as most stuff seems to be falling near me (London). Lo and behold, Lombardo makes his post. Thanks, both. This site is like a prescription for sanity.

Yeah, I was sane before I started looking at this site too 😛

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Out of interest, in regards to the New Build price changes, would these be properties who's contracts are being agreed at this time, or would they have been agreed some time in the past (possibly off-plan) and coming available now?

 

Thanks

Edited by Bankside

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12 hours ago, lombardo said:

Look at the difference between the new build and existing price changes. It looks like Help to Buy is still working to prop up prices.

Yes, which is why I do not believe there will be big falls until 2023, when the government "promised" that HTB will end.

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12 hours ago, Wayward said:

The official line is that HTB hasn't inflated prices....what can you say?

I'm no economist, but if you take a desirable asset in very limited supply and make it 15-20% easier to pay for.....then obviously the price will remain exactly the same 😕

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25 minutes ago, btd1981 said:

I'm no economist, but if you take a desirable asset in very limited supply and make it 15-20% easier to pay for.....then obviously the price will remain exactly the same 😕

There's enough houses for everyone. The limited supply is a myth. It's buy to let that causes the shortage and only buy to let. Once they get taxed out, the shortage gets turned into a glut. Spirals down slowly at first accelerating uncontrollably; you're seeing it now. 

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26 minutes ago, 24gray24 said:

There's enough houses for everyone. The limited supply is a myth. It's buy to let that causes the shortage and only buy to let. Once they get taxed out, the shortage gets turned into a glut. Spirals down slowly at first accelerating uncontrollably; you're seeing it now. 

Not in the areas people want to live 

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1 hour ago, 24gray24 said:

There's enough houses for everyone. The limited supply is a myth. It's buy to let that causes the shortage and only buy to let. Once they get taxed out, the shortage gets turned into a glut. Spirals down slowly at first accelerating uncontrollably; you're seeing it now. 

There is approx 25 million dwellings in the UK, with a population of approx 66 million. Thats 1 property for every 2.64 person. Thats not taking out children etc... and bear in mind that alot of people are living with more than 1 person (child, partner, parents etc)

 seems like there are plenty of dwellings to go round

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51 minutes ago, Monkey said:

There is approx 25 million dwellings in the UK, with a population of approx 66 million. Thats 1 property for every 2.64 person. Thats not taking out children etc... and bear in mind that alot of people are living with more than 1 person (child, partner, parents etc)

 seems like there are plenty of dwellings to go round

There were actually 27.7 million homes as of 2016, according to the ONS, and 66.2 million people as of 2017.

So that’s less than 2.4 people per house in the U.K. 

There are about 24.0 million houses in England, but only 58.7 million people (2017), which is just less than 2.45 people per house.

 

 

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That only works if every house has 2.5 ish people in it ( I know).

Some of those average 2.5 people families like to live in one house each. Probably moreso than the two 2.5 average families like to share one house.

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My point is that it would be interesting to see the household size distribution. Bet there are plenty of single pensioners, young professionals, separated couples to offset any larger households.

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1 hour ago, btd1981 said:

My point is that it would be interesting to see the household size distribution. Bet there are plenty of single pensioners, young professionals, separated couples to offset any larger households.

Yes i agree.... but its not hideously out of ratio.... where there the average is 1 property to 20 people, like some comentators would make you beleive. It is reported time and time again that there is a housing shortage, ie not enough houses to home the population. 

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6 hours ago, hurlerontheditch said:

Not in the areas people want to live 

True for desirable rural and coastal locations but not London.  Here its more that people rent or buy in the mistaken belief they will have more opportunities and be better off overall.
In reality most of them will be worse off while living in a sheddy part of town.
If firms in this City want particular skills they go looking for them.  Being keen and present gets people nowhere, but they fecking still keep coming nevertheless.  Wish they'd look elsewhere as it makes rent and purchase for those who do have the right skills and experience much more expensive than it should be.

Edited by hotblack42
typo

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2 hours ago, btd1981 said:

That only works if every house has 2.5 ish people in it ( I know).

Some of those average 2.5 people families like to live in one house each. Probably moreso than the two 2.5 average families like to share one house.

Really?  I know some millionaires and none of them live alone in their houses, or have said they want to.  Usually just a partner admittedly.
As an aside, whilst they live in very nice, comfortable houses they are not trophy homes.
The 2 couples we know in really big flash places have big incomes, BTLs and are mortgaged to b*ggery.
Who'd have thought.. 🙂

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20 hours ago, Wayward said:

The official line is that HTB hasn't inflated prices....what can you say?

I can say that JS Bloor Services (who makes most of it's money from Bloor Homes) have donated more than £2 million to the tories since 2015, and their latest accounts show a recent 27% increase in turnover at £917 million, and profits leaping by 58% to £152 million. Taking from the poor and giving to the rich like this is reported to run until 2023.  

Merry christmas everyone. 

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On 19/12/2018 at 10:34, crazypabs said:

Let me guess, this fella's purchases are off the books because it is likely to be company purchases rather than title transfers, and at discounts of estimated 30% this would make a massive dent in the real figures

https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/business/riding-the-brexit-wave-an-israeli-just-bought-1-200-london-apartments-in-cash-1.6759335

Do company purchased not show in land reg? If they don't that's a real shame!

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On 20/12/2018 at 08:06, 24gray24 said:

There's enough houses for everyone. The limited supply is a myth. It's buy to let that causes the shortage and only buy to let. Once they get taxed out, the shortage gets turned into a glut. Spirals down slowly at first accelerating uncontrollably; you're seeing it now. 

Where do you live? Definitely a shortage in Hampshire. Besides we wouldn't see any inflation if there wasn't a shortage. There is no mechanism for inflation without competitive bidding. 

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On 20/12/2018 at 11:18, BorrowToLeech said:

There were actually 27.7 million homes as of 2016, according to the ONS, and 66.2 million people as of 2017.

So that’s less than 2.4 people per house in the U.K. 

There are about 24.0 million houses in England, but only 58.7 million people (2017), which is just less than 2.45 people per house.

 

 

It's supply that is important....these stats say nothing about supply.

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  • 293 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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