The perfect storm

[localhero1983]

I am not going to over elaborate, there is probably several decent sized issues as far as I am concerned that the UK is on the verge of a proper correction in the financial and housing market. 

These are the three I am focused on

1. World trade wars

2. Brexit

3. financial markets(look at the negative yield curve)

I was one of those that sniggered in the early days of the property crash predictions, I then believed the property market could have crashed post 2011 ish onwards, but put that prediction off when I saw just how much the governments were willing to do to keep it inflated. I am totally putting everything on an upcoming property crash now, I give it 80% plus chance of it now happening in the short term, No debt now,  decent savings, my business is easily capable of taking 50% plus reductions in profit tomorrow, and even if it does happen I will only come out of this looking stupid.

[localhero1983]

Just thought I would post on my own thread so maybe a few people could see it ? Mods have only just decided to OK it for some reason after days of writing it and it has dropped a few pages unnoticed, or could be it's just a crap post?

[dances with sheeple]

Yes, the energy out there has definitely shifted, we are a long way from the ECB etc. staring down the bond vigilantes, anything could happen, and property/stock markets are very exposed. I am going to predict that May loses the vote tonight, and that starts a chain reaction that takes us into a trade/political confrontation with the EU.

[Si1]

It's like black Wednesday on steroids

[dances with sheeple]

I`m also predicting that the EU isn`t going to win this stand off, they are already on the back foot although talking tough, and are due a really good banking crisis.

[simvastatin]

2 hours ago, dances with sheeple said:

I`m also predicting that the EU isn`t going to win this stand off, they are already on the back foot although talking tough, and are due a really good banking crisis.

I hope you have cancelled your Christmas shopping trip to Paris 

[happyguy]

On 08/12/2018 at 12:50, localhero1983 said:

I am not going to over elaborate, there is probably several decent sized issues as far as I am concerned that the UK is on the verge of a proper correction in the financial and housing market

Another post forecasting doom and economic disaster?  Next year I am going to tally the number of new threads on this subject. 

On 08/12/2018 at 12:50, localhero1983 said:

I was one of those that sniggered in the early days of the property crash predictions, I then believed the property market could have crashed post 2011 ish onwards, but put that prediction off when I saw just how much the governments were willing to do to keep it inflated. I am totally putting everything on an upcoming property crash now, I give it 80% plus chance of it now happening in the short term, No debt now,  decent savings, my business is easily capable of taking 50% plus reductions in profit tomorrow, and even if it does happen I will only come out of this looking stupid.

I have heard property crash predictions for so many years now.  The govt did offer H2B yes, but the fact is that there is a desire to own a property, that is part of UK culture.  We have an expanding population plus divorce and more women working means that there will always be a demand for homeownership.  

Also why snigger? I cannot understand people who wish ill fortune on others, that is a very sad and bitter mentality.

"even if it does happen I will only come out of this looking stupid."

Fancy that

[Bluestone59]

On 08/12/2018 at 12:50, localhero1983 said:

I am not going to over elaborate, there is probably several decent sized issues as far as I am concerned that the UK is on the verge of a proper correction in the financial and housing market. 

These are the three I am focused on

1. World trade wars

2. Brexit

3. financial markets(look at the negative yield curve)

I was one of those that sniggered in the early days of the property crash predictions, I then believed the property market could have crashed post 2011 ish onwards, but put that prediction off when I saw just how much the governments were willing to do to keep it inflated. I am totally putting everything on an upcoming property crash now, I give it 80% plus chance of it now happening in the short term, No debt now,  decent savings, my business is easily capable of taking 50% plus reductions in profit tomorrow, and even if it does happen I will only come out of this looking stupid.

Oh yeah? I've looked stupid for about 20 years already. 

[cashinmattress]

On 08/12/2018 at 12:50, localhero1983 said:

I am not going to over elaborate, there is probably several decent sized issues as far as I am concerned that the UK is on the verge of a proper correction in the financial and housing market. 

These are the three I am focused on

1. World trade wars

2. Brexit

3. financial markets(look at the negative yield curve)

I was one of those that sniggered in the early days of the property crash predictions, I then believed the property market could have crashed post 2011 ish onwards, but put that prediction off when I saw just how much the governments were willing to do to keep it inflated. I am totally putting everything on an upcoming property crash now, I give it 80% plus chance of it now happening in the short term, No debt now,  decent savings, my business is easily capable of taking 50% plus reductions in profit tomorrow, and even if it does happen I will only come out of this looking stupid.

Hmmm.

Focus on the demographics of the UK/US/Western Hemisphere before any of the that stuff... it's a tangible and real threat and will bankrupt social welfare systems everywhere.

The rest can be dealt with.

[Si1]

8 hours ago, happyguy said:

. 

I have heard property crash predictions for so many years now.  The govt did offer H2B yes, but the fact is that there is a desire to own a property, that is part of UK culture.  We have an expanding population plus divorce and more women working means that there will always be a demand for homeownership.  

Wtf.

[localhero1983]

I know what another prediction of a crash sounds like people, but there you go? Cannot help the way I feel and the way I am looking at data, to me personally it is a no brainer, but the scepticism is fine by the way, fully understandable. To the whoever it was(cannot remember now) who made the point about me "sniggering", that was at predictions, not prices falling

[goldbug9999]

9 hours ago, happyguy said:

I cannot understand people who wish ill fortune on others, that is a very sad and bitter mentality.

Everyone who hopes their house price will increase is wishing ill on others (because the increased price comes from someone else having to borrow more).

Well actually its worse than that because homelessness and homeless death rate is increasing as is food bank usage, both of which symptomatic of overly expensive housing. So wanting houses to stay expensive is wishing misery and possible death on others. 

Wishing for prices to fall on the other hand is at worst wishing moderate financial hardship on relatively well off people for the net benefit of the economy.

Edited December 13, 2018 by goldbug9999

[Bluestone59]

22 hours ago, happyguy said:

Another post forecasting doom and economic disaster?  Next year I am going to tally the number of new threads on this subject. 

I have heard property crash predictions for so many years now.  The govt did offer H2B yes, but the fact is that there is a desire to own a property, that is part of UK culture.  We have an expanding population plus divorce and more women working means that there will always be a demand for homeownership.  

Also why snigger? I cannot understand people who wish ill fortune on others, that is a very sad and bitter mentality.

"even if it does happen I will only come out of this looking stupid."

Fancy that

 

 

Edited December 14, 2018 by Bluestone59
Delete, someone already said similar

[macca13]

9 hours ago, goldbug9999 said:

Everyone who hopes their house price will increase is wishing ill on others

Well actually its worse than that because homelessness and homeless death rate is increasing as is food bank usage, both of which symptomatic of overly expensive housing. So wanting houses to stay expensive is wishing misery and possible death on others. 

Go back to 2.5x maxiumum mortgage borrowing.

Tax the life out of Buy to leech.

Build/Buy replacement social housing.

Automate low paid jobs so mass immigration propped up with Benefits is not required to do them! 

prices will fall, tax take will rise and everyone will have more to spend in the real economy!

Edited December 14, 2018 by macca13

[scottbeard]

2 hours ago, macca13 said:

Go back to 2.5x maxiumum mortgage borrowing.

Tax the life out of Buy to leech.

Build/Buy replacement social housing.

Automate low paid jobs so mass immigration propped up with Benefits is not required to do them! 

prices will fall, tax take will rise and everyone will have more to spend in the real economy!

Agreed!

[simvastatin]

3 hours ago, macca13 said:

Go back to 2.5x maxiumum mortgage borrowing.

Tax the life out of Buy to leech.

Build/Buy replacement social housing.

Automate low paid jobs so mass immigration propped up with Benefits is not required to do them! 

prices will fall, tax take will rise and everyone will have more to spend in the real economy!

The problem is that it is too late for that 

[Cosmic Lunatic Asylum]

11 minutes ago, prozac said:

The problem is that it is too late for that 

Exactly. The mob won't allow any chance of a return to price/value discovery now. The system throughout Europe wasn't going to be collapsed until the tribes could be guaranteed to tear each other apart, but along come the French again to cause trouble. 

 

[happyguy]

16 hours ago, Bluestone59 said:

Oh yeah? I've looked stupid for about 20 years already. 

I agree have heard it all before 10000 times I am genuinely going to keep a tally of how many threads say the same thing in 2019

15 hours ago, Si1 said:

Wtf.

You will be here in 10 years time predicting a crash and economic disaster - we have heard it all 1000000000000000 times now

I cannot be bothered to waste time trying to gaze into a crystal ball like some gypsy fortune teller.

If/when it happens if it a great subject for discussion. Until then it is boring and repetitive conjecture based on desire.  

13 hours ago, goldbug9999 said:

Everyone who hopes their house price will increase is wishing ill on others (because the increased price comes from someone else having to borrow more).

Well actually its worse than that because homelessness and homeless death rate is increasing as is food bank usage, both of which symptomatic of overly expensive housing. So wanting houses to stay expensive is wishing misery and possible death on others. 

Wishing for prices to fall on the other hand is at worst wishing moderate financial hardship on relatively well off people for the net benefit of the economy.

Most people I know could not care less if their house price goes up No one has to borrow more or do anything else they make a personal choice to borrow if they want to.  They could also choose to buy a less expensive house and borrow less.  

A person whose home has increased in value is not responsible for every homeless person on the street.  People who are homeless or use a food back would not be able to afford to buy a house if they prices did not go up.  If they had been able to they would have done so.  

Wishing financial hardship on anyone whoever they are is sad and pathetic and the product of envy.  Wishing ill on people just because they own a house and you do not is truly vindictive and unpleasant.  The problem is people who are bitter and angry at other only affect themselves with their bile and anger,  the people they wish ill on do not know or care about what you want.  

Personally I wish the best for all people, even you.  

3 hours ago, macca13 said:

Go back to 2.5x maxiumum mortgage borrowing.

Tax the life out of Buy to leech.

Build/Buy replacement social housing.

Automate low paid jobs so mass immigration propped up with Benefits is not required to do them! 

prices will fall, tax take will rise and everyone will have more to spend in the real economy!

The lenders decide what their multiples are.  They are business who exist to make a profit and will act accordingly. 

If there are no rental landlords the people who want to rent or cannot afford to buy will be homeless. 

Who will want to build social housing there is no money in that for any developer and the govt does not have the skills to undertake it. Also where?  I do not want the green fields of England covered with s++t housing for east europeand and immigrants from asia africia and the middle east taking away the habitat of hedgehogs, insects, birds etc.

Automation is already happening but imigrantys are still flooding in no govt has the courage to deal with it for fear of being called racist by the snowflake generation.

Prices will not fall unless the largest cost element falls which is labour costs.  If that falls there will be less money to spend in the economy

[zugzwang]

17 minutes ago, happyguy said:

You will be here in 10 years time predicting a crash and economic disaster - we have heard it all 1000000000000000 times now

I cannot be bothered to waste time trying to gaze into a crystal ball like some gypsy fortune teller.

If/when it happens if it a great subject for discussion. Until then it is boring and repetitive conjecture based on desire.  

So why are you even here at all, given that the entire raison d'etre for this site is speculation about housing affordability and its impact on our quality of life, present and future economic prospects etc.?

[simvastatin]

1 hour ago, Cosmic Lunatic Asylum said:

Exactly. The mob won't allow any chance of a return to price/value discovery now. The system throughout Europe wasn't going to be collapsed until the tribes could be guaranteed to tear each other apart, but along come the French again to cause trouble. 

 

Lol

[Captain Kirk]

On 13/12/2018 at 09:56, happyguy said:

We have an expanding population plus divorce and more women working means that there will always be a demand for homeownership. 

And there goes the population bomb. If there is such a demand for home ownership why is it decreasing? Also, if you need 4 x joint wages to buy an average house, how can a divorced couple each buy a house?

The truth is we have a central bank and central government induced asset bubble in housing in the UK and a government hell bent on taking advantage of a very misinformed population by playing on their fears of missing out.

[Fromage Frais]

The storm starts with the US base rate and ends with it.

The rest are just details which are important but not as important as near zirp.

This all began with easy money and that is how it will die.

 

 

 

[Bluestone59]

1 hour ago, zugzwang said:

So why are you even here at all, given that the entire raison d'etre for this site is speculation about housing affordability and its impact on our quality of life, present and future economic prospects etc.?

Surely any reasonable debate is enhanced by the introduction of opposing views? 

HG is speculating that the above things won't improve much, it's a runnable argument and one not irrelevant to the thread. 

As I doubt that what's happened since 2000 is sustainable indefinitely, then I believe a correction is more likely than never. But I'm far from convinced. 

It is equally likely that there will be further madness to get people into debt. 

[Si1]

2 hours ago, happyguy said:

I agree have heard it all before 10000 times I am genuinely going to keep a tally of how many threads say the same thing in 2019

You will be here in 10 years time predicting a crash and economic disaster - we have heard it all 1000000000000000 times now

I cannot be bothered to waste time trying to gaze into a crystal ball like some gypsy fortune teller.

If/when it happens if it a great subject for discussion. Until then it is boring and repetitive conjecture based on desire.  

Most people I know could not care less if their house price goes up No one has to borrow more or do anything else they make a personal choice to borrow if they want to.  They could also choose to buy a less expensive house and borrow less.  

A person whose home has increased in value is not responsible for every homeless person on the street.  People who are homeless or use a food back would not be able to afford to buy a house if they prices did not go up.  If they had been able to they would have done so.  

Wishing financial hardship on anyone whoever they are is sad and pathetic and the product of envy.  Wishing ill on people just because they own a house and you do not is truly vindictive and unpleasant.  The problem is people who are bitter and angry at other only affect themselves with their bile and anger,  the people they wish ill on do not know or care about what you want.  

Personally I wish the best for all people, even you.  

The lenders decide what their multiples are.  They are business who exist to make a profit and will act accordingly. 

If there are no rental landlords the people who want to rent or cannot afford to buy will be homeless. 

Who will want to build social housing there is no money in that for any developer and the govt does not have the skills to undertake it. Also where?  I do not want the green fields of England covered with s++t housing for east europeand and immigrants from asia africia and the middle east taking away the habitat of hedgehogs, insects, birds etc.

Automation is already happening but imigrantys are still flooding in no govt has the courage to deal with it for fear of being called racist by the snowflake generation.

Prices will not fall unless the largest cost element falls which is labour costs.  If that falls there will be less money to spend in the economy

Are you on amphetamines or something?

[SOLZHENITSYN]

2 hours ago, happyguy said:

“The lenders decide what their multiples are.  They are business who exist to make a profit and will act accordingly. “

“Prices will not fall unless the largest cost element falls which is labour costs.  If that falls there will be less money to spend in the economy”

First statement is not strictly true. MMR put the responsibility on lenders to act more sensibly when it comes to mortgage affordability, and changes had to be made to ensure customers were only lent the money they could repay. As a result, mortgage to income ratios changed and many people found themselves either unable to borrow what they want with certain lenders, or, trapped in their current mortgage unable to refinance elsewhere. So it’s not just up to banks to lend what they like. They must comply with regulation.

 

The second statement I highlight is also incorrect. The biggest cost element of housing is not labour costs. It is the cost of the underlying land.