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rantnrave

Halifax Nov 2018

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Looking hopeful but lets treat this figure with the same skepticism as we treat this index when it rises. It is based on a single lenders mortgage books and excludes cash buyers obviously.

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BBC Business feed coverage (!). Wonder if it will get featured more prominently elsewhere?

House price growth at six-year low

UK house prices in November fell 1.4% month-on-month, 1.1% quarterly and increased by just 0.3% annually with the rate of price growth at its lowest level since December 2012, according to the latest Halifax House Price index.
 
It says the average house price is now £224,578.
 
"While this is the lowest rate of growth in six years, it remains within our forecast range of 0% to 3% for 2018," said Halifax managing director Russell Galley.

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Yes! A post about house prices in the house price forum. Who’d have thought.

3 minutes ago, Pebbles said:

Looking hopeful but lets treat this figure with the same skepticism as we treat this index when it rises. It is based on a single lenders mortgage books and excludes cash buyers obviously.

Fair point. 

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25 minutes ago, rantnrave said:

Annual growth plummets to just 0.3%

Read all about it:

https://static.halifax.co.uk/assets/pdf/mortgages/pdf/November-2018-House-Price-Index.pdf

 

I've run this through the English press translator:

Great news as house prices continue to rise! Strong and stable growth for most regions. However, some buyers were put off by the good/bad weather.

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Met up with some old friends yesterday.  One has been trying to sell their house in a desirable part of Surrey and hasn't had a nibble all year. The good news keeps on coming......

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Wow - almost there now. For me, however much we might sneer at the accuracy of these figures (particularly when they show a rise!), for the general public these are numbers they see in the news so are key for shifting sentiment, and once sentiment shifts the herd mentatlity can easily take over. Once sentiment shifts, then banks get more nervous about lending and start asking for bigger deposits and higher interest rates, which in turn drives down prices in a viscious circle - or that's the hope anyway!

Nearly there now, nearly there...

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Guardian;

UK house price growth hits six-year low

OUCH! UK house prices growth has slowed to a six year low.

The Halifax has reported that the average house price declined by 1.4% in November, a substantial fall. On a quarterly basis, prices in September-November were 1.1% lower than in June-August.

And annually, prices were only 0.3% higher than a year ago - that’s the weakest growth rate in six years.

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Followed, of course, by this:

09:03

Brexit blamed for house price slowdown

Several property experts are blaming Brexit uncertainty for the slowdown in UK property prices.

Here’s Mike Scott, chief property analyst at estate agent Yopa,

‘This suggests that the usual Christmas slowdown in the housing market has started early this year, as people wait for the outcome of the current political turmoil before making long-term commitments, such as buying a new home.

‘However, the economic fundamentals of low unemployment, low interest rates, growing wages and limited supply are all positive for house prices, and we therefore expect the market to pick up again in the new year.’

Jonathan Samuels, CEO of the property lender, Octane Capital,agrees:

“The lowest rate of growth for six years is a reflection of how Brexit uncertainty has hit the property market for six.

“Without wanting to appear overly pessimistic, there’s every chance 2019 could be 2009 all over again.“People need to be preparing for that eventuality and the low level of transactions suggests they are.

“All the ingredients for extreme uncertainty, both political and economic, are in the mix.

“Mortgages are still cheap and the employment market strong, but the great unknown of Brexit is causing prospective buyers and sellers alike to err on the side of caution.

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23 minutes ago, rantnrave said:

NSA figure is already an annual fall of -0.7%

Seasonal adjustment isn’t necessary when it’s an annual figure.

 

it’s the three month averaging that is to blame.

Edited by neon tetra

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2 minutes ago, neon tetra said:

Seasonal adjustment isn’t necessary when it’s an annual figure.

The "adjustment" is yoy but for last 3 months compared to same 3 months a year ago. It is a better practice in order to smooth out the index.

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It could have been a -5% drop or +5% rise, it no longer matters to me what the indicies say, none of them tells the picture as to what is really happening in this broken  housing market, if you can call it a market.

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1 hour ago, rantnrave said:

"While this is the lowest rate of growth in six years, it remains within our forecast range of 0% to 3% for 2018," said Halifax managing director Russell Galley.

1.5% YoY last month.

0.3% YoY this month.

...and with the actual Nov to Nov figure being negative, this baby looks to be going DOWN.

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Just look at the way it's been reported. Sucks.

Hopefully the words 'house price growth' will disappear from the vocabulary.

If all major indices were reporting YoY falls there would be nowhere for the BBC to hide.

Surely can't be long now. Don't see anything in the short-term that might reverse sentiment.

 

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2 minutes ago, simon2 said:

Just look at the way it's been reported. Sucks.

Hopefully the words 'house price growth' will disappear from the vocabulary.

If all major indices were reporting YoY falls there would be nowhere for the BBC to hide.

Surely can't be long now. Don't see anything in the short-term that might reverse sentiment.

 

In Spain what they started calling it “negative house price growth”...

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15 minutes ago, simon2 said:

Just look at the way it's been reported. Sucks.

Hopefully the words 'house price growth' will disappear from the vocabulary.

If all major indices were reporting YoY falls there would be nowhere for the BBC to hide.

Surely can't be long now. Don't see anything in the short-term that might reverse sentiment.

 

Last time YoY went negative, there were articles about the increase over the last five years...

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Definitely good news.

Some folks still SSTC nice family homes for 500k ish how crazy they must be.

I doubt they will be able to get the sale/mortgage processed by the time of the vote next week.

I know you can make money being contrarian but buying a highly priced house for 10% more then 2016/17 in slipping market a few weeks before an event that the Carney as stated will make house prices fall is really nuts.

 

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Wonderful news - such a large monthly fall might see a bit of a correction next month, likewise could be the beginning of a massive slide. Either way I can't see it remaining positive in three months time; which should hopefully really start to hammer sentiment :D

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  • 259 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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