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No One

Its Going to Be Biblical

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3 hours ago, No One said:

 

I am now convinced that there is nothing stopping this train wreck.

We are in the equivalent of 2007.

 

The guy commenting on these videos is worth listening to.
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCPSnPab3qnMTqXkb5soE74Q

A lot of bad things happening to Oz property market in rapid succession.
The sky is turning dark with chickens coming home to roost.

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I'm also convinced that the next financial downturn will be the ''big one'' i.e. the complete collapse (or perhaps that should be prolapse) of the whole fiat monetary system.

 

Unfortunately I think we've got a whole lot more can kicking, plate spinning, smoke n mirrors, bubble inflating economic policies before we reach that and I doubt it will occur in my lifetime.

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and after 2007 within a couple of years house prices soared again.

It was not biblical in 2007 all that happened was house prices fell by about 10% When that happens all that happens is the only people who sell are those who really must.  That reduces the stock and prevents huge falls.  That is exactly what happened in 2007-8.

It only affect those who need to sell and are not buying anything else.  If prices fall and x sells at a lower price and buys another house that is also at a reduced price. 

The key to it is buying at the right time.  A lot pf people did not buy after the 2007-8 falls thinking prices would fall further.  One could argue that their own greed stopped them from buying but that is a different debate. 

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1 hour ago, hotblack42 said:

The guy commenting on these videos is worth listening to.
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCPSnPab3qnMTqXkb5soE74Q

A lot of bad things happening to Oz property market in rapid succession.
The sky is turning dark with chickens coming home to roost.

I've posted some of his stuff on the Aussie thread.

The level of naivety of the people in that clip, unbelievable.

57 minutes ago, happyguy said:

and after 2007 within a couple of years house prices soared again.

It was not biblical in 2007 all that happened was house prices fell by about 10% When that happens all that happens is the only people who sell are those who really must.  That reduces the stock and prevents huge falls.  That is exactly what happened in 2007-8.

It only affect those who need to sell and are not buying anything else.  If prices fall and x sells at a lower price and buys another house that is also at a reduced price. 

The key to it is buying at the right time.  A lot pf people did not buy after the 2007-8 falls thinking prices would fall further.  One could argue that their own greed stopped them from buying but that is a different debate. 

That was because banks lowered IR's and shoved liquidity in a rush, making us all poorer. 

The difference is that the IR's are already low, and Australia is not USA. No one will prop the AUSD as it's not a reserve currency.

The Australian central bank needs to defend its currency from a run on the AUSD. That means shooting IR's. Liquidity in the banks will dry up very quickly. 

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This one is ******ing mint! Aussies are thick as shit and shallow enough to paddle in.

 

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46 minutes ago, dom said:

This one is ******ing mint! Aussies are thick as shit and shallow enough to paddle in.

 

fuk me that's awful. Not one word about the ordinary people their actions price out of owning their own homes either. I hope they and all their ilk end up renting for the rest of their lives.

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2 hours ago, dom said:

This one is ******ing mint! Aussies are thick as shit and shallow enough to paddle in.

10:34

"It could happen to anyone"

AHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHA

OMG, borrow millions on IO, build a bunch of sh*tholes, go busto, then say it could happen to anyone!!!!

Both people that the show follows in this are desperately trying to say its not their fault. Amazing. Greedy f'ers tried to make millions overnight, went busto, and its someone elses fault. Absolute classic. What planet are these people living on?????? And they "just" want to keep their house? So they want to borrow millions to try to get rich overnight, and if it goes wrong they dont want to lose anything!!!!!! Who do these people think they are?? Who should pay for all the work and materials that have gone into building the houses?? The rest of us that had no chance to get rich through their scheme????? This was a classic but it says 60minutes. There must be more to this episode!!

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1 hour ago, Sperm Donor said:

fuk me that's awful. Not one word about the ordinary people their actions price out of owning their own homes either. I hope they and all their ilk end up renting for the rest of their lives.

If it follows the pattern of the UK, the Aussie Government/ Central Bank will see them right so long as they didn't buy at the peak and aren't forced to sell in a very narrow time window when prices are at their lowest.

We went through this on a thread here before - based on average UK prices  if you bought practically any time in the last couple of decades you wouldn't have lost out ... only those who bought in 2007 and we forced to sell in 2008/9 (or thereabouts) would have made losses.  Obviously, that's based on the average price.  I'm sure that there are specific areas where that doesn't apply.

 

By and large the Western 'economic model' depends in large part on consumer credit creation through mortgage lending.   The governments will do ANYTHING to prop this up.  Only  catastrophic collapse will force prices significantly down for a long period.

 

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Sour Mash said:

By and large the Western 'economic model' depends in large part on consumer credit creation through mortgage lending.   The governments will do ANYTHING to prop this up.  Only  catastrophic collapse will force prices significantly down for a long period.

I don't see the Australian government doing anything so far.

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8 minutes ago, Captain Kirk said:

I don't see the Australian government doing anything so far.

They will once it really bites - prices in the UK came off peak by about 20% before all the measures designed to prop them up reversed the strong downward trend.

 

ISTR Mervyn King pledging 'no bailouts - moral hazard' just before he launched a massive programme of bailouts for the banking system when also helped support house prices.

 

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The commenter makes sense but thinks the slump will end in 2022. I'd like to know why he's arrived at that arbitrary figure, and what it is he thinks will provide the turnaround, given there'll be another global recession/depression before then...

This isn't a cycle like before, because before we've always had the facility to drop IRs to re-invigorate borrowing. That's a busted flush now, nowhere to go on that front. So the turnaround will from..what?

 

 

 

Edited by zilly

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23 minutes ago, Sour Mash said:

They will once it really bites - prices in the UK came off peak by about 20% before all the measures designed to prop them up reversed the strong downward trend.

 

ISTR Mervyn King pledging 'no bailouts - moral hazard' just before he launched a massive programme of bailouts for the banking system when also helped support house prices.

 

Maybe, but in the last housing bust central banks were able to slash interest rates from around 5% to virtually 0. Since they are still at rock bottom, that option is not available.

I can't imagine a 2nd bank bailout is going to go down too well with the plebs also.

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Really enjoyed both videos. Funny that people promote their family values when they are screwed financially. No doubt they would have been lording it over their tenants during their 15 minutes of success. 

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6 hours ago, happyguy said:

and after 2007 within a couple of years house prices soared again.

It was not biblical in 2007 all that happened was house prices fell by about 10% When that happens all that happens is the only people who sell are those who really must.  That reduces the stock and prevents huge falls.  That is exactly what happened in 2007-8.

It only affect those who need to sell and are not buying anything else.  If prices fall and x sells at a lower price and buys another house that is also at a reduced price. 

The key to it is buying at the right time.  A lot pf people did not buy after the 2007-8 falls thinking prices would fall further.  One could argue that their own greed stopped them from buying but that is a different debate. 

Didn't happen in Northern Ireland. Prices fell 60%. Lots of people bought after 20% falls thinking it couldn't fall further. 5 years later and prices were still dropping. 

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13 minutes ago, AdamoMucci said:

You are advancing harmful racial stereotypes! Expect a visit from the police!

I clearly wrote 'not'. You will be visited by the South Yorkshire sarcasm police.

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3 hours ago, Sour Mash said:

If it follows the pattern of the UK, the Aussie Government/ Central Bank will see them right so long as they didn't buy at the peak and aren't forced to sell in a very narrow time window when prices are at their lowest.

We went through this on a thread here before - based on average UK prices  if you bought practically any time in the last couple of decades you wouldn't have lost out ... only those who bought in 2007 and we forced to sell in 2008/9 (or thereabouts) would have made losses.  Obviously, that's based on the average price.  I'm sure that there are specific areas where that doesn't apply.

 

By and large the Western 'economic model' depends in large part on consumer credit creation through mortgage lending.   The governments will do ANYTHING to prop this up.  Only  catastrophic collapse will force prices significantly down for a long period.

 

 

 

These policies are still playing out. We have no idea what the outcome will be. The bailout is ongoing. If the market shits itself again, the liabilities will be too big to bail this time. Look at the consequences of the first bailout - Trump, Brexit, rise of populism and Europe on fire.

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Can't add much to the excellent observations that have already been made, but I'm amazed by the stupidity, greed and denial of the muppets in those videos.

The woman in the first one - £425k with no deposit on an off-plan property at 25.. and all the wannabe property tycoons now gloriously losing their family homes after their spectacularly failed bids to live work-free from the financial enslavement of others, yet they're now the ones being utterly consumed by debt. Oh beautiful, delicious irony :D

An 80% drop in value in one example too! I'd wager there's a hell of a lot of Chinese money tied up in over-inflated Aussie property too (it's everywhere, but I bet Aus have bourne the brunt of their "investment") - I wonder what connotations this holds for the Chinese economy? That has to have the potential for a serious knock-on for the rest of the world.

So it looks like the collapse is now in full swing in Aus, while Canada's looking decidedly squiffy and they yanks are in record debt (with a president who couldn't give less of a toss) and their hpi hotspots are now on the turn. Not sure what's going on in the rest of the world but it looks like the global housing collapse is really getting started!

EDIT: Mods - why is this post on moderation please; especially 20hrs after it was posted? I've not had another others posts moderated and can't see why this one should be 🙄

Edited by ftb_fml

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21 hours ago, happyguy said:

and after 2007 within a couple of years house prices soared again.

It was not biblical in 2007 all that happened was house prices fell by about 10% When that happens all that happens is the only people who sell are those who really must.  That reduces the stock and prevents huge falls.  That is exactly what happened in 2007-8.

It only affect those who need to sell and are not buying anything else.  If prices fall and x sells at a lower price and buys another house that is also at a reduced price. 

The key to it is buying at the right time.  A lot pf people did not buy after the 2007-8 falls thinking prices would fall further.  One could argue that their own greed stopped them from buying but that is a different debate. 

That was my mistake

House prices where clearly falling and still not good value or reverted to or overshoot the historic trend to the downside.

Gov intervention FLS and HTB juiced it all and my mistake was not seeing that would re inflate it all fast.

 

Edited by Fromage Frais

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20 hours ago, dom said:

This one is ******ing mint! Aussies are thick as shit and shallow enough to paddle in.

 

Is this real? What’s wrong with his voice? He sounds like an Australian  Lloyd Grossman.

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LOL i laughed hard at this. 

 

from $900k to 180k still unsold and empty HAHAHAHAHAHHA

most aussie mortgages are IO hahah says you can`t afford chit in reality.  what a flucked up world we live in. 

the best thing they can do is syphon off any money they can find hide it away and go bankrupt.  

 

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