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PeanutButter

If a house price crash sounds like good news, you should think again

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https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/nov/30/if-house-price-crash-sounds-like-good-news-think-again

Dire warnings of a no-deal Brexit could be seen as helpful to first-time buyers. But a downturn would hurt those who can least afford it the most

 

 

Sounds like Gaby’s been lurking here...

 

Edited by PeanutButter

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An analysis released this week by the property firm Savills spelled out just one of the reasons why. A property downturncould, it estimated, reduce the number of affordable homes being built by a quarter. When prices fall, developers’ profits shrink and they retreat from the market. And when developers stop building, promises to stop future buyers being locked out of the market by building 300,000 new homes a year aren’t worth the manifestos they were written on.

Oh no, not the house builders profits.  Anything but them. We simply must save them at all costs. 8| 

It would be just awful if we made better use of current housing stock instead of pumping tax money into subsidising Help to Buy and boosting developers bonus packets. 

 

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16 minutes ago, PeanutButter said:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/nov/30/if-house-price-crash-sounds-like-good-news-think-again

Dire warnings of a no-deal Brexit could be seen as helpful to first-time buyers. But a downturn would hurt those who can least afford it the most

 

 

Sounds like Gaby’s been lurking here...

 

What a bunch of non-sense. I agree with the sentence “a downturn would hurt those who can least afford it the most”, but who occupies this position? Is it the post-crash first time buyer like me or the amateur overleveraged portfolios Landlords who brag about how many houses they have?

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39 minutes ago, PeanutButter said:

An analysis released this week by the property firm Savills

And there it is, project fear, the source of this journalistic scaremongering. Savills!

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A HPC wont happen in isolation. Interest rates will rise, unemployment will rise and people who at the moment can get a mortgage may have their jobs made redundant and no longer able to buy. yes, some will have cash saved up but this number wil be few

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LOL at the logic "but if there's a HPC, developers will stop building affordable homes"!

If there's a HPC you wouldn't need the sticking plaster of "affordable homes" because ALL homes would be (and should be) affordable. 🙄

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1 hour ago, Burbujista said:

What a bunch of non-sense. I agree with the sentence “a downturn would hurt those who can least afford it the most”, but who occupies this position? Is it the post-crash first time buyer like me or the amateur overleveraged portfolios Landlords who brag about how many houses they have?

Yes, she curiously doesn't mention any amateur landlords attempting to liquidate their 'portfolio' adding more supply to the market or less competition for buyers from the same.

She also states it will be poor youngsters who paid too much for their house that will suffer the most.  Nobody forced them to buy.

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The whole argument is pretty odd. In the first place, it seems to hinge on the idea that a crash would be a symptom of a wider economic crisis, which is cargo-cult economics, mistaking a result for the cause.

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42 minutes ago, Ghostly said:

Yes, she curiously doesn't mention any amateur landlords attempting to liquidate their 'portfolio' adding more supply to the market or less competition for buyers from the same.

She also states it will be poor youngsters who paid too much for their house that will suffer the most.  Nobody forced them to buy.

People who bought a house for a price they thought reasonable, and will still own the house and will still be paying the same amount? 

No, the people who lose are people who treat homes as investments rather than places to raise families.  Good. Those people deserve to lose. 

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2 minutes ago, BorrowToLeech said:

People who bought a house for a price they thought reasonable, and will still own the house and will still be paying the same amount? 

No, the people who lose are people who treat homes as investments rather than places to raise families.  Good. Those people deserve to lose. 

😋...indeed.

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Hmmm. I wonder how many properties she has and how much they've increased in value over the past few years...

Always amusing to see the right-on, left wing Guardian pumping out pro-HPI articles. They're mostly Blairite champagne socialists though, so no real surprise!

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It's weird, with literally every other thing for sale when the price goes down more people are able to afford it. I guess you have to be a housing economist to understand why bricks and mortar are different.

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3 hours ago, hurlerontheditch said:

A HPC wont happen in isolation. Interest rates will rise, unemployment will rise and people who at the moment can get a mortgage may have their jobs made redundant and no longer able to buy. yes, some will have cash saved up but this number wil be few

😎

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1 hour ago, fru-gal said:

Hmmm. I wonder how many properties she has and how much they've increased in value over the past few years...

Always amusing to see the right-on, left wing Guardian pumping out pro-HPI articles. They're mostly Blairite champagne socialists though, so no real surprise!

no doubt some lazy mumsnetter with a few hundred k to her name and 1 million in debt with some tenant in her old flat. 

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A downturn will hurt most those who have overstretched themselves without any contingency planning. For example, someone who paid £600,000 for a 2 bedroom flat in London, without considering where they'd find £120k if things dropped by 20% and they needed to move. At least they could probably just continue to pay the mortgage. The person with multiple highly leveraged BTLs however..

Edited by Clarky Cat

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4 hours ago, Dorkins said:

So an HPC would hurt exactly the same people who were hurt by HPI? Doesn't smell right to me.

She seems to be saying an HPC would cause fewer houses to be built. That's only a problem for FTB if it pushes prices up, so therefore her argument is based on "a house price crash would cause house price inflation." Got to love the logic there.

 

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4 hours ago, hurlerontheditch said:

A HPC wont happen in isolation. Interest rates will rise, unemployment will rise and people who at the moment can get a mortgage may have their jobs made redundant and no longer able to buy. yes, some will have cash saved up but this number wil be few

Concerns based on the wider impact of a downturn are fair enough, but there's nothing bad whatsoever about a house price crash alone, and that was the point she raised (rising interest rates to wean the country off debt would be good too in the long run). The (short term) downsides may outweigh the upsides but that still doesn't make an HPC a downside. The author though was talking about just the HPC aspect, not the wider economy.

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5 hours ago, PeanutButter said:

Oh no, not the house builders profits.  Anything but them. We simply must save them at all costs. 8| 

It would be just awful if we made better use of current housing stock instead of pumping tax money into subsidising Help to Buy and boosting developers bonus packets.

What she is saying quite correctly is ion that a country where there is a housing shortage less affordable homes will be built 

5 hours ago, Burbujista said:

 “a downturn would hurt those who can least afford it the most”,

 

4 hours ago, hurlerontheditch said:

Interest rates will rise, unemployment will rise and people who at the moment can get a mortgage may have their jobs made redundant and no longer able to buy. yes, some will have cash saved up but this number wil be few

Exactly.  People here who wish for an economic disaster think will not affect them personally.  I am amazed that people who want the economy to crash and burn think it will only affect large corporate organisations and home owners.  An economic crash will affect probably 95% of the population in terms of redundancies, lower salaries.

So many people do not understand that if companies do not make as much profit or lose money they will make staff redundant or close down altogether.  Maybe they just think they are indispensible!  Or work for the council or are teachers! 

1 hour ago, Dorkins said:

It's weird, with literally every other thing for sale when the price goes down more people are able to afford it.

When job are lost and people have no job or earn less money people will not be able to afford it.  Lenders will also become far more risk averse to many will not be able to get a mortgage.  

13 minutes ago, Riedquat said:

She seems to be saying an HPC would cause fewer houses to be built.

Yes if no one is buying new houses developers have no incentive to build houses.  If people stopped buying beans companies who make beans would not supply as many cans of beans.  With less developments built the level of houses built under 106 agreements will fall. 

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4 minutes ago, happyguy said:

Yes if no one is buying new houses developers have no incentive to build houses.  If people stopped buying beans companies who make beans would not supply as many cans of beans.  With less developments built the level of houses built under 106 agreements will fall. 

Don't disagree with that. But you cut off the bit where I pointed out the flaw - the argument that that would therefore be a bad thing for house prices, since it implied a shortage and hence prices going up because prices had gone down.

No incentive to build houses is a bloody good thing in its own right.

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2 minutes ago, happyguy said:

What she is saying quite correctly is ion that a country where there is a housing shortage less affordable homes will be built 

 

Exactly.  People here who wish for an economic disaster think will not affect them personally.  I am amazed that people who want the economy to crash and burn think it will only affect large corporate organisations and home owners.  An economic crash will affect probably 95% of the population in terms of redundancies, lower salaries.

So many people do not understand that if companies do not make as much profit or lose money they will make staff redundant or close down altogether.  Maybe they just think they are indispensible!  Or work for the council or are teachers! 

When job are lost and people have no job or earn less money people will not be able to afford it.  Lenders will also become far more risk averse to many will not be able to get a mortgage.  

Yes if no one is buying new houses developers have no incentive to build houses.  If people stopped buying beans companies who make beans would not supply as many cans of beans.  With less developments built the level of houses built under 106 agreements will fall. 

There is no housing shortage. That's just a line we've been sold. There are plenty of empty houses not being used, but the govt and house builders want us to support the constant throwing up of sub-standard cookie cutter boxes, and overpriced 'luxury' flats/houses. 

I personally don't wish for economic disaster. A long slow levelling out of house prices is far better. But if we crash out I don't see how housing investment (and money is essentially a faith-based endeavour) would remain static. 

 

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  • 149 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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