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Nationwide House Price Index November 2018

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I notice the last two Novembers prices dropped but were seasonally adjusted to show a 0.1% rise. I'd probably take that again this time. Desperately want a year on year drop to get the masses frothing....

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2 hours ago, Sperm Donor said:

I notice the last two Novembers prices dropped but were seasonally adjusted to show a 0.1% rise. I'd probably take that again this time. Desperately want a year on year drop to get the masses frothing....

How much of a monthly fall do we need for an annual drop? 2.5%?

Edited by Sausage

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6 hours ago, GreenDevil said:Why do people lost this every time there's a report? Who gives a FF?

The RM/Haliwide numbers are the most easily “adjusted” figures and are laughable as data.  HOWEVER they drive Public sentiment, receive a relatively large amount of air time and give a direction of travel.

Whatever direction I don’t believe a huge V.I.’s unverified numbers, that are begging to be scrutinised.

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2 minutes ago, crazypabs said:

I notice that the average price reduced by £500 between oct18 and nov18 despite an increase in the monthly index value. Smell very fishy to me

Furthermore the AVG house prices not seasonally adjusted have fallen each month since July from £217,040 to £214,044

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31 minutes ago, crazypabs said:

I notice that the average price reduced by £500 between oct18 and nov18 despite an increase in the monthly index value. Smell very fishy to me

Seasonal Adjustment

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Who cares about the Nationwide, we all see different things. I see a huge and increasing population fighting over a small housing stock. It would be like the powers that be saying we had a strong and healthy happy food industry because people were paying £100 for a loaf of bread inflated because of the war effort in little farming.

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Quote

House price growth of 1.9% in November was "pretty subdued" given Britain's labour market is doing relatively well and mortgage borrowing costs are at historically low levels, says Nationwide's chief economist Robert Gardner.

"I think this reflects the pressure that has been on households from high inflation and weak wage growth, and the fact that the outlook for the economy is still very uncertain," he told the Today programme.

He says there is a wide range of ways Brexit could affect the housing market, with a shock hit from a "no deal" still unlikely.

"Our central expectation is the UK will eventually reach a deal with the EU and continue to grow, at a fairly modest pace in the near term with this accelerating as the uncertainty lifts... But we're prepared for lots of different circumstances."

 

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Just looking at the Nationwide data, it is has not been so hard to get depressed in these past few years. But you really only have to remove £15,000 from the average house price and we are back to prices 3 years ago, and it really does not take all that much to get back to the financial crisis years.

But the big plus is that the property price  small rises in these last few years  have come with a lot of government meddling and no financial triggers to set off a crash, the next few years is going to be the opposite though, and that's putting it mildly, property cannot fail to fall now, it is just simple basic logic.

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4 minutes ago, localhero1983 said:

Just looking at the Nationwide data, it is has not been so hard to get depressed in these past few years. But you really only have to remove £15,000 from the average house price and we are back to prices 3 years ago, and it really does not take all that much to get back to the financial crisis years.

But the big plus is that the property price  small rises in these last few years  have come with a lot of government meddling and no financial triggers to set off a crash, the next few years is going to be the opposite though, and that's putting it mildly, property cannot fail to fall now, it is just simple basic logic.

That's how I see it and I hope you are correct.

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2 minutes ago, PeanutButter said:

Not holding my breath that our beloved leaders will stop their meddling tbh

Indeed, however I cling on to the delusion that if enough people's lives become screwed by the current policies they will have to be changed to get votes.

Neither party seems to care though.

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49 minutes ago, PeanutButter said:

Not holding my breath that our beloved leaders will stop their meddling tbh

Oh I have no doubts in my mind that they would if they could, but what is left?

The armoury is just about empty and there are other sectors screaming for money

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48 minutes ago, frederico said:

Indeed, however I cling on to the delusion that if enough people's lives become screwed by the current policies they will have to be changed to get votes.

Neither party seems to care though.

That's a thing with modern day politics, they will allow a sizable minority to rot in squalor as long as there is enough of the house price increasing supporters vote them back into power. The Tories are worst and May really is  a cold b**ch, even with her "frolicking in the wheat fields", but Blair had that cold evil streak as well.

The last 20 years have been the worst in politics in my opinion, I don't care what anyone says, Thatcher and Major deep down were supporters of workers who aspired, and that included people from the gutter, Blair set the ball rolling to a more self centered nasty type of politics

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10 minutes ago, localhero1983 said:

Thatcher and Major deep down were supporters of workers who aspired

Thatcher and Major planted the seeds for today's private rental sector which working age people are struggling to build lives in. The Housing Act 1988 meant if you weren't a homeowner or lucky enough to bag a council house you would never have security of tenure. Abolishing MIRAS for owner occupiers while keeping it for BTLers gave BTLers a significant tax advantage over first time buyers. Many of the properties sold through Right to Buy are now rented out under ASTs.

Edited by Dorkins

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Agree with Dorkins. There was also demutualisation of the Building Socities in 1986. That added a bit more fuel to the fire. And the general laissez-faire trends towards dereglation and financialisation. No political party is undeserving of blame but the people holding the smoking gun were in the 80s.

Back to the Nationwide figure - I imagine Help To Buy and low transaction levels have contributed to this. Everything seems to be falling or stalling around my way though (West London).

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  • 142 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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