Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
ftb_fml

"Buyer demand falls to lowest in six years while sales also slide, say agents"

Recommended Posts

According to Property Industry Eye :

Quote

In a flurry of market news, the NAEA said that buyer demand and sales both dropped by 13% last month as uncertainty holds back the market.

The number of applicants registered per branch was 294, down from 338 in September – the lowest number for an October since 2012.

Housing supply decreased from 46 per branch in September to 40, and the average number of sales agreed per branch fell from nine in September to eight last month.

Excellent news - Brexit or not, I think the idea of a correction is becoming more and more ingrained in the national consciousness given the growing absence of "HPI-positive" crap in the MSM over the past months / years. As a result people have become a lot more cautious and are sitting on their hands to see what happens - looks like the sheeple are waking up!

 

Quote

Meanwhile, Hometrack claimed that despite Brexit dominating the news, its impact on the UK housing market has been limited.

Reporting for October, Hometrack said six cities posted year on year price growth of over 6% with Leicester (7.7%), Edinburgh (7.4%), Manchester (6.3%), Birmingham (6.2%), Nottingham (6.1%) and Liverpool (6.0%) all performing strongly.

However, there were drops in London (-0.4%), Cambridge (-1.1%) and Aberdeen (-2.8%). Hometrack, as is usual, reported no actual prices.

I'm unsure what to think about Hometrack as their growth figures appear consistently more bullish then everyone else's, plus I think their regional data looks a bit squiffy. For example, after a couple of years of stagnation hometrack are now claiming 5.5% annual growth in Oxford; while my anecdotal experience would have been more like minus that figure.

 

Quote

Separately, mortgage brokers reported a slump in their business, citing Brexit as a possible cause.

The Intermediary Mortgage Lenders Association said that the average number of mortgage cases was down 10% in the third quarter of this year – the largest fall in business volumes since the same quarter in 2016.

Annually, the average number of cases per broker dropped from 90 to 81 cases in the third quarter.

I like the "Brexit as a possible cause" - it's almost like they know it's not the case but might as well throw this into the ring as a means of avoiding confrontation of the real reasons..

 

Edited by ftb_fml

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Some interesting and (surprisingly!) intelligent comments on that article too, seemingly from EAs, stating that they need to get prices down.

I don't understand what an "applicant" is though.  I enquired about a house a couple of months ago, and gave my details to an agent who rings me every week asking if I want one of his lovely houses.  Am I now this agent's "applicant", and for how long will I continue to be one?  If he gave up last week I no longer am, if he carries on leaving voicemails then I still am.  The usual vague terminology.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
47 minutes ago, ftb_fml said:

According to Property Industry Eye :

Excellent news - Brexit or not, I think the idea of a correction is becoming more and more ingrained in the national consciousness given the growing absence of "HPI-positive" crap in the MSM over the past months / years. As a result people have become a lot more cautious and are sitting on their hands to see what happens - looks like the sheeple are waking up

 

Agents make money on % fee's. As 08 blew up the sales volume, and therefore the % commission on sales, many agents went the route of charging 1 months rent from the LL as a fee, and between 1-2 weeks  (4 weeks for London) rent from the tenants for signing some prewritten contract, with the later becoming ever more costly for the tenants as time went by. Prior to 08, a contract would cost a tenant no more than 10 pounds, to cover the ink, paper and the little time of the agent signing up the tenant.

The governments move to ban fees aimed at tenants means that the agents need to go back to the old model of  % commission. 

 

Low sales volume = Less Money

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Cheers guys - I have the good people of HPC for introducing me to Property Agent Eye in the first place :)

1 hour ago, Tes Tickle said:

Some interesting and (surprisingly!) intelligent comments on that article too, seemingly from EAs, stating that they need to get prices down.

I don't understand what an "applicant" is though.  I enquired about a house a couple of months ago, and gave my details to an agent who rings me every week asking if I want one of his lovely houses.  Am I now this agent's "applicant", and for how long will I continue to be one?  If he gave up last week I no longer am, if he carries on leaving voicemails then I still am.  The usual vague terminology.

Indeed! I'm guessing that the "applicants" are those potential buyers who actually willingly submit their contact details; inviting the agents to feverishly hit speed-dial as soon as they have some over-priced, wholly unsuitable crap they need to shift.

I'd agree about the vagueness of the terminology, however the potential influence of this is reduced in the context of the ad since it's only referencing the new "buyer" contacts the agents make every month, not how many they currently have on their books.

 

48 minutes ago, No One said:

Agents make money on % fee's. As 08 blew up the sales volume, and therefore the % commission on sales, many agents went the route of charging 1 months rent from the LL as a fee, and between 1-2 weeks  (4 weeks for London) rent from the tenants for signing some prewritten contract, with the later becoming ever more costly for the tenants as time went by. Prior to 08, a contract would cost a tenant no more than 10 pounds, to cover the ink, paper and the little time of the agent signing up the tenant.

The governments move to ban fees aimed at tenants means that the agents need to go back to the old model of  % commission. 

 

Low sales volume = Less Money

Indeed - they can't make any money if they're not shifting any stock.

 

21 minutes ago, Bearfact said:

The comments section particularly gives me hope... thanks for sharing 

Absolutely - I'd actually no read it until it was picked up on here, however so far the vast majority of comments are pragmatic, sensible and bearish.

Two that stand out:

Quote

Listen. There is no good market or bad market.  Just get on with it. There’s always a bunch of people that NEED to sell and a bunch of people that NEED to buy. You’ve just got to work your backsides off to put those 2 people together.  Plus pricing is all relative. Stop moaning.

Can't agree with this enough. Everything will sell at the right price - the only reason stuff isn't selling is because the price is too high. Drop the prices and the market will start to move again.. of course the market's stagnating because people generally give their business to agents who value higher.

Agents know that ultimately they've got to drop prices to maintain turnover and the solvency of their business, hopefully with the prevailing HPI-negative sentiment will make it easier for them to do this and we can get some meaningful price corrections. 

 

Quote

It isn’t “uncertainty” holding back the market.  Not in my patch in South West London.   What is “hold back” buyers is that those with half a brain cell or more can see that the market is over-valued and is heading down.   They are “uncertain” about what the correct discount is, is it 10% or 15%, or even more.   If agents could get their vendors to price realistically confidence would come back to the market.

Absolutely nailed it in a single paragraph.

Edited by ftb_fml

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, ftb_fml said:

I'd agree about the vagueness of the terminology, however the potential influence of this is reduced in the context of the ad since it's only referencing the new "buyer" contacts the agents make every month, not how many they currently have on their books.

Aha, in that case it's fair enough I suppose.

However, regardless of the state of the market, it's likely that their number of contacts may reduce over time, just because the internet is so useful and getting more so every year.  I'm looking to buy at the moment - I look at a few houses every day, I stand outside their front door and look around the neighbourhood - but I do it all using Google Earth.  A few years ago I'd have arranged a viewing before deciding each one was crap, as a result of which the agent would have found out who I was, so I'd have been a statistic.  I can also find out about planning applications, check the Land Registry boundary lines among other things, again all without them having a clue.  By the time I contact an agent I've probably ruled out 99% of what I'd have viewed without the internet.  I'm probably a bit more tech savvy than the average, but I'd assume that lots of others are working out what they can find out online too.  They should be getting fewer enquiries, but each enquiry should be more likely to become a sale as usually lots of homework would have been done beforehand.

This comment doesn't mean that I don't think that the housing market's withering fairly rapidly, just that IMO it's probably not a reliable statistic.  Also, the number of enquiries is a result of the number of buyers AND the number of houses on their books - which they've also said is down.  So some of the downturn in both of these figures may be due to the rise of online agents and competition in general.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • 244 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.