Converstaions with BTLs

[Ballyk]

Yes, I suppose so.  I just thought it was a very good idea and after various arguments with people I thought I'd put my money where my mouth was.

I almost bought a house in early 2013 in Newham E. London to live in, and to be honest I'd have made the same return (actually probably greater), tax free, from that as investing in what happened to be a fast growing stock.  And probably had a better quality of life than renting.

But I suspect house prices will fall (at least in real terms) while I reckon Tesla has a lot more upside.  Time will tell I guess.  I could still be the idiot.  Perhaps I am the idiot for not buying a place in 2012 / 2013.

 

8 minutes ago, Locke said:

So you got lucky in the casino

 

[longgone]

10 minutes ago, dugsbody said:

Do you not have a pension?

nope cash only 

[Bruce Banner]

2 hours ago, Locke said:

With inflation at base 5%, average 7%, sometimes more, a small "gain" is still a loss.

Ed: plus you have the risk of loss of capital. Take that into account and the return may even be negative vs cash.

I'm not seeing anything like that level of inflation in the real world and the things I spend money on. My average interest rate is about 2.5% and I spread it over a number of savings accounts / ISAs making sure to keep below the FSCS limit in each case, so risk of loss of capital is minimal.

[longgone]

5 minutes ago, Ballyk said:

Yes, I suppose so.  I just thought it was a very good idea and after various arguments with people I thought I'd put my money where my mouth was.

I almost bought a house in early 2013 in Newham E. London to live in, and to be honest I'd have made the same return (actually probably greater), tax free, from that as investing in what happened to be a fast growing stock.  And probably had a better quality of life than renting.

But I suspect house prices will fall (at least in real terms) while I reckon Tesla has a lot more upside.  Time will tell I guess.  I could still be the idiot.  Perhaps I am the idiot for not buying a place in 2012 / 2013.

 

 

same as you but without bothering to invest.  you may end up with the tesla uplift and houses back at 2013 prices 

[Ballyk]

5 minutes ago, longgone said:

same as you but without bothering to invest.  you may end up with the tesla uplift and houses back at 2013 prices 

Here's hoping...

[Burbujista]

37 minutes ago, longgone said:

nope cash only 

So... you keep your capital in the asset that Mark Carney controls... How risky is that?

[Locke]

10 minutes ago, Ballyk said:

Yes, I suppose so.  I just thought it was a very good idea and after various arguments with people I thought I'd put my money where my mouth was.

I almost bought a house in early 2013 in Newham E. London to live in, and to be honest I'd have made the same return (actually probably greater), tax free, from that as investing in what happened to be a fast growing stock.  And probably had a better quality of life than renting.

But I suspect house prices will fall (at least in real terms) while I reckon Tesla has a lot more upside.  Time will tell I guess.  I could still be the idiot.  Perhaps I am the idiot for not buying a place in 2012 / 2013.

I don't mean to be insulting, good on you for making money! I find it nonetheless amusing that all this money is being "made" on nothing but hot air, while money "managers" insist it's their good sense causing their profits.

Honestly, any prediction other than "this isht is going down in flames at some point" is worthless. TSLA may soar in the short term, but it is predicated upon government cheddar and bizarre levels of public goodwill and will go to zero at some point.

[Fatmanfilms]

4 hours ago, longgone said:

many won`t go near it. including me.  

lots of risk for not much return. 

Since 1965 the S&P 500 index has had annualised returns of 9.7%, $10,000 became $1.28 million, had you invested in Berkshire Hathaway your $10,000 would be worth $197,000,000. Very low long term risk & a hassle free  return.

[Ballyk]

9 minutes ago, Locke said:

I don't mean to be insulting, good on you for making money! I find it nonetheless amusing that all this money is being "made" on nothing but hot air, while money "managers" insist it's their good sense causing their profits.

Honestly, any prediction other than "this isht is going down in flames at some point" is worthless. TSLA may soar in the short term, but it is predicated upon government cheddar and bizarre levels of public goodwill and will go to zero at some point.

Here's hoping not...

I'll admit to being a bit of a treehugger.  But Tesla did sell about 6.5k cars a week last quarter, compared to < 0.5k a week in 2013.  It is the fastest growing large manufacturing company in the world.  Its sales this year will increase by ~140% compared to last year.  And its growth is likely to continue to be ~50% per annum for the next few years.  There seems to be no shortage of demand for its products, which sell at a premium price.

So I'm still hopeful the share price will keep growing by ~27% per annum, admittedly with a fair deal of volatility. 

But I could well be completely wrong.

[Si1]

9 minutes ago, Fatmanfilms said:

Since 1965 the S&P 500 index has had annualised returns of 9.7%, $10,000 became $1.28 million, had you invested in Berkshire Hathaway your $10,000 would be worth $197,000,000. Very low long term risk & a hassle free  return.

+1

[iamnumerate]

11 minutes ago, Fatmanfilms said:

Since 1965 the S&P 500 index has had annualised returns of 9.7%, $10,000 became $1.28 million, had you invested in Berkshire Hathaway your $10,000 would be worth $197,000,000. Very low long term risk & a hassle free  return.

Very good point although comparing to inflation, bank account and property would make it more meaningful.

[Quicken]

Didn't see anyone else mention these, but you can get over 6% returns in an IFISA. No FSCS of course. This is not advice, etc.

[Lavalas]

1 hour ago, Locke said:

So you got lucky in the casino

...plus it’s 2am and all the money is still on the table.

[macca13]

5 hours ago, localhero1983 said:

she could end up being one of many who end up boring everyone with their tale of their property was once worth £300,000 and now it is back to £150,000, which I personallly will take great joy in

Our U.K. debt is through the roof since 2008

A government eventually will have to find a way to reverse/pay down this debt! 

So its:

income tax increase?

land tax (bad if you have many houses)

Something has to change, our economy is not viable and will never be able to pay back our debts without some sort of wealth tax.. 

They can’t take anymore from those at the bottom, and they can’t really squeeze those in the middle too much without committing political suicide.. 

So houses are a massive storage of wealth that needs to be exploited, they caused most of the debt, so they should be responsible for repaying that debt! 

 

[Frugal Git]

I'm short Tesla as a trade currently - which is bizarre I love the company and will get a model S at some point. But it's just a punt.

But for now: 

1) Tesla is currently bucking the general market - it's near the All time high, whilst most tech stocks (and Tesla is a tech stock, regardless of industry) are being whacked. If the market continues its current trajectory, Tesla will be hit too.

2) 360 is the important target for the convertible bond. It has to be above that - but I reckon that's a ceiling price. If it successfully converts most bondholders to stock, it'll drop again.

3) Its volatility over the past 6 months is legendary. It is a fantastic traders tool. Regardless of anything else, it'll have a scare before the bond thing is decided.

So I'm short at 337. Target price 275. stop loss 370. I'll lose very little regardless, as it's a small position.

Nothing but a punt - long term I hope it survives and thrives.

[Diver Dan]

All very interesting about whether or not to get a BTL but currently my income minus expenses gives me only a few hundred pounds a month, not enough to put down a deposit on the bedsit in Rotherham of my dreams.

Currently, I have standing orders into a stocks and shares LISA and ISA which are mainly focused on index trackers and some Blue Chips, plus a contingency fund in cash where any excess over a certain amount gets used to top up the ISAs before the end of the tax year. 

My rationale is that this is relatively low risk and liquid and if the markets go down, then my standing order buys more stock and if they go up, the money I invested already increases in value.

Am I an idiot or should I be doing something different?

[Aidan Ap Word]

3 hours ago, Locke said:

Which they are totally unable to deliver.

If the cancellations start, it will be problematic for them.

They are delivering them faster than they promised they would.

And the number of pre-orders is increasing, not decreasing.

And they are delivering more Model S and Model X than before, too.

Significant net increase in demand since the car was released.

And they are starting international delivery soon.

"If the cancellations start" -> they haven't.

"If new preorders come in" -> they are.

I call FUD.

[Locke]

3 minutes ago, Aidan Ap Word said:

I call FUD.

It's your money dude.

I have my doubts and I would be short rather than long on them; if I had a position.

[Locke]

1 hour ago, Ballyk said:

There seems to be no shortage of demand for its products, which sell at a premium price.

Sure, but what kind of products are the first to sit on shelves during recessions?

[Locke]

2 hours ago, Fatmanfilms said:

Since 1965 the S&P 500 index has had annualised returns of 9.7%, $10,000 became $1.28 million, had you invested in Berkshire Hathaway your $10,000 would be worth $197,000,000. Very low long term risk & a hassle free  return.

How would you have known to buy that particular stock?

Several other big names since then don't even exist anymore, let alone have value.

$10,000 is $77,000 today. Do you have that kind of cash sitting around to invest in several different firms?

Bitcoin was pennies just 10 years ago. Are all cryptocurrencies a good investment?

GE:

 

[Ballyk]

56 minutes ago, Frugal Git said:

I'm short Tesla as a trade currently - which is bizarre I love the company and will get a model S at some point. But it's just a punt.

But for now: 

1) Tesla is currently bucking the general market - it's near the All time high, whilst most tech stocks (and Tesla is a tech stock, regardless of industry) are being whacked. If the market continues its current trajectory, Tesla will be hit too.

2) 360 is the important target for the convertible bond. It has to be above that - but I reckon that's a ceiling price. If it successfully converts most bondholders to stock, it'll drop again.

3) Its volatility over the past 6 months is legendary. It is a fantastic traders tool. Regardless of anything else, it'll have a scare before the bond thing is decided.

So I'm short at 337. Target price 275. stop loss 370. I'll lose very little regardless, as it's a small position.

Nothing but a punt - long term I hope it survives and thrives.

I'm no expert at all on trading, shorting and all that clever stuff.  I just try to buy them when they are a bit low looking and (very occasionally) sell when everyone is getting a bit euphoric, then buy back a bit later.

I think they could possibly dip in the next couple of weeks, but I have a feeling they will go on a tear from mid-December until mid-March when they unveil the Model Y, and probably until end-April.  That's what happened between late 2015 and Spring 2016 when the Model 3 was unveiled, and the Model X was establishing itself.  They should be profitable in Q4, probably to a greater extent than Q3.

If you zoom out a bit on  share price, TSLA is still >10% below its 2017 high, whereas AAPL is at about the same level as its 2017 high.  AMZN is about 25% above its 2017 high.  Because of Elon's odd tweets in the Summer, TSLA didn't go on a crazy rally like the other tech stocks, plus the Model 3 ramp was slower than expected (but ultimately successful).  Growth potential is undiminished.

[Ballyk]

In my amateur opinion.

[longgone]

2 hours ago, Burbujista said:

So... you keep your capital in the asset that Mark Carney controls... How risky is that?

does it matter ? no plebs control any assets they just think they do. 

 

2 hours ago, Fatmanfilms said:

Since 1965 the S&P 500 index has had annualised returns of 9.7%, $10,000 became $1.28 million, had you invested in Berkshire Hathaway your $10,000 would be worth $197,000,000. Very low long term risk & a hassle free  return.

Thank god for the crystal ball everyone had 

[Confusion of VIs]

4 hours ago, Ballyk said:

I ignored all good investment advice and invested almost entirely in Tesla stock since 2013, following an argument with someone in the oil industry who said that electric cars were complete rubbish and that I was a complete idiot.

Thats gambling not investing.

PS you would have done better with, safe as houses, Bitcoin

[winkie]

BTL or ISAs and stocks and shares?.....what about growth made from what you don't buy instead of focusing on what should be buying.?