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Si1

The building societies association - in the bargaining stage of the grief cycle

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2 hours ago, Si1 said:

It's another PR push on the 'report' they released last week: Intergenerational mortgages: Building on the Bank of Mum and Dad.

Just the weird world of UK mortgage lending. In 2012 lending 100% LTV against a rubbish flat in some outer London borough was too risky, now six years down the line the ratio of that house price will have gone from eye-watering to horrifying and the price is up by 70% but, by some perverse logic, it now won't be risky to lend if you can get Mum and Dad to promise to be good for 5% of the price if things get sketchy.

 

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From the 'report'

image.thumb.png.aa860f1555495ea6eec5103c234795b6.png

Also

image.thumb.png.d41a73f4499c6b1e2759b38fd48c9541.png

That sentence about "a form of financial stability" is a corker. Basically, it's industry lobbyists arguing that the rock bottom mortgage interest rates that are entirely the result of extraordinary monetary policy needed to rescue the banks from the consequences of their collective insanity pre-2008, having already persisted for a solid decade, are now going to persist for the next 30 years as well and therefore the banks should be freed from having to entertain the idea that interest rates might ever go up again and start lending as if it's going to be permanent emergency forever.

 

Edited by Bland Unsight

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It was telling in the GFC that the worst offenders were building societies or former building societies. Batsh1t lending is what they do, apparently.

Also immediately post GFC, the chair of the BSA, who was the chair of ybs at the time, said it was inconceivable going forward that the mortgage industry could operate without permanent govt subsidy .

My intuition is that, having failed to diversify at any point following the GFC, despite spectacular govt support, they're all buggered.

I know some mid level employees of said institutions in Yorkshire and they are all highly invested members of the batsh1t property is special brigade.

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27 minutes ago, Si1 said:

It was telling in the GFC that the worst offenders were building societies or former building societies. Batsh1t lending is what they do, apparently.

Also immediately post GFC, the chair of the BSA, who was the chair of ybs at the time, said it was inconceivable going forward that the mortgage industry could operate without permanent govt subsidy .

My intuition is that, having failed to diversify at any point following the GFC, despite spectacular govt support, they're all buggered.

I know some mid level employees of said institutions in Yorkshire and they are all highly invested members of the batsh1t property is special brigade.

That's the problem - if these people are in their credit and risk teams then they'll go balls deep again on the basis that "2007 was a once in a 100 year event and we're only writing 30 year mortgages" 

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20 minutes ago, Exiled Canadian said:

That's the problem - if these people are in their credit and risk teams then they'll go balls deep again on the basis that "2007 was a once in a 100 year event and we're only writing 30 year mortgages" 

Absolutely. Which is why we are seeing greater regulation.

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9 hours ago, Si1 said:

It was telling in the GFC that the worst offenders were building societies or former building societies. Batsh1t lending is what they do, apparently.

Also immediately post GFC, the chair of the BSA, who was the chair of ybs at the time, said it was inconceivable going forward that the mortgage industry could operate without permanent govt subsidy .

My intuition is that, having failed to diversify at any point following the GFC, despite spectacular govt support, they're all buggered.

I know some mid level employees of said institutions in Yorkshire and they are all highly invested members of the batsh1t property is special brigade.

The UK BS esp, the northern ones used to be very conservatively run til the late 90s.

Something happened in late 90s and it wasnt just Brown.

I think the BS grew as theyd found a perpetual profit machine. Lots of expensive consultants too.

Its worth bearing in minds  that it took about 10 years from trend on Bs's to demute (mid 90s) to most of the blowing up (mid 00s).

Id guess, when you look the figures, 80% of people working in the northern BS sector have lost their jobs since mid 00s.

If you have know;edge of gogo people left in the northern BS sector then that can only be the Skipton. As a lowly  ex worker of Scabby BS said to me in summer 'I knew it was too good to last'

Skiptons Interesting. I thought it would implode. It seems to have slammed on the brakes i nthe last 12 months or so. Huge layoffs are going to follow.

 

 

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, spyguy said:

The UK BS esp, the northern ones used to be very conservatively run til the late 90s.

Something happened in late 90s and it wasnt just Brown.

I think the BS grew as theyd found a perpetual profit machine. Lots of expensive consultants too.

Its worth bearing in minds  that it took about 10 years from trend on Bs's to demute (mid 90s) to most of the blowing up (mid 00s).

Id guess, when you look the figures, 80% of people working in the northern BS sector have lost their jobs since mid 00s.

If you have know;edge of gogo people left in the northern BS sector then that can only be the Skipton. As a lowly  ex worker of Scabby BS said to me in summer 'I knew it was too good to last'

Skiptons Interesting. I thought it would implode. It seems to have slammed on the brakes i nthe last 12 months or so. Huge layoffs are going to follow.

 

 

 

 

 

Ybs mate. Although I knew a bloke who worked at the Skipton once.

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1 hour ago, spyguy said:

Skiptons Interesting. I thought it would implode. It seems to have slammed on the brakes i nthe last 12 months or so. Huge layoffs are going to follow.

There will be a reduction in employee numbers everywhere where there are low skilled admin job by peopkle siting in front of a pc all day. AI is taking these jobs every single week in the UK. 

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13 hours ago, Bland Unsight said:

From the 'report'

image.thumb.png.aa860f1555495ea6eec5103c234795b6.png

 

 

 

Beyond reach. possibly prices are extortionate is the cause.  

educational marketing 😄 i read that as convince the new generation of plebs that being in debt your entire life is normal. 

 

 

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If a BS wants to lend 100% mortgages to people then theres nothing stopping it.

However, they would not longer be a regulated bank, with access to BoE cash.

They'd have to raise 100% of the mortgage as finance, pay the investors, manage the debt payments.

 

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3 hours ago, Social Justice League said:

The best thing the general public can do for itself is to refuse to borrow money from the bent banking system.

Bleed them white and watch them all fold.

For every 1 person who understands and wants what we want, there is 100 people wanting to borrow higher and higher LTV's and at higher wage multiples to get on the ladder.

The banks wouldn't notice the stand.

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41 minutes ago, Si1 said:

Its been paid to run in the Daily Mail.

 

Like local papers and local EAs, whats left of the daily press is used by the lobby groups to push their BS schemes.

Stating the obvious, its not blocking a generation of buyers - houses will transact at what finance people can get.

Anyone getting an proceed-able offer up to 30% off should be snapping their hands off.

 

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2 hours ago, spyguy said:

Its been paid to run in the Daily Mail.

 

Like local papers and local EAs, whats left of the daily press is used by the lobby groups to push their BS schemes.

Stating the obvious, its not blocking a generation of buyers - houses will transact at what finance people can get.

Anyone getting an proceed-able offer up to 30% off should be snapping their hands off.

 

Its limiting eye watering gains for wealthy owners...can't have that...

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2 hours ago, spyguy said:

Its been paid to run in the Daily Mail.

 

Like local papers and local EAs, whats left of the daily press is used by the lobby groups to push their BS schemes.

Stating the obvious, its not blocking a generation of buyers - houses will transact at what finance people can get.

Anyone getting an proceed-able offer up to 30% off should be snapping their hands off.

 

maria-schell-and-raf-vallone-blow-the-fr

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On 21/11/2018 at 19:55, Bland Unsight said:

image.thumb.png.d41a73f4499c6b1e2759b38fd48c9541.png

That sentence about "a form of financial stability" is a corker. Basically, it's industry lobbyists arguing that the rock bottom mortgage interest rates that are entirely the result of extraordinary monetary policy needed to rescue the banks from the consequences of their collective insanity pre-2008, having already persisted for a solid decade, are now going to persist for the next 30 years as well and therefore the banks should be freed from having to entertain the idea that interest rates might ever go up again and start lending as if it's going to be permanent emergency forever.

 

Given that the primary goal of the PRA is achieving "financial stability", I doubt that they will decide that it is time to replace its statutory objective with that of "allowing many young households the opportunity to buy a property".

I did feel uneasy about the MMR restrictions, because they did not apply to BTL purchasers, and because the latter had much lower stress rates, could afford more. Luckily the latest PRA rules on BTL lending restrict this and put the two on a level playing field pretty much.

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34 minutes ago, Ah-so said:

Given that the primary goal of the PRA is achieving "financial stability", I doubt that they will decide that it is time to replace its statutory objective with that of "allowing many young households the opportunity to buy a property".

I did feel uneasy about the MMR restrictions, because they did not apply to BTL purchasers, and because the latter had much lower stress rates, could afford more. Luckily the latest PRA rules on BTL lending restrict this and put the two on a level playing field pretty much.

I am not a member of the Boe (I can count to 10!).

I guess they did not bother with BTL (and IO BTL) as they had sight of the Basel rules which basically kills BTL (building societies doign commercial lending at cheape rates than OO lending) dead, mainly due to the extra rsk wieghting.

I ge tthe feeling most IO BTL wish they had come under MMR and have been prevented buying....

 

 

 

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3 minutes ago, spyguy said:

I am not a member of the Boe (I can count to 10!).

I guess they did not bother with BTL (and IO BTL) as they had sight of the Basel rules which basically kills BTL (building societies doign commercial lending at cheape rates than OO lending) dead, mainly due to the extra rsk wieghting.

I ge tthe feeling most IO BTL wish they had come under MMR and have been prevented buying....

 

 

 

The MMR restrictions were actually brought in by the FCA under conduct rules. BTL mortgages were unregulated so could not be resticted by the FCA.

The PRA then put prudential limits around BTL, perceiving there to be a risk, which was detailed in the Financial Stability Report back in 2015.

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  • 145 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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