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Land Registry - September - 0% UK -0.4% London MoM

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Thanks, some very interesting information;

  1. Roughly half the areas saw falls over the quarter (my area, SW up +0.3%)
  2. Transaction levels continued to fall (my area, SW, down 17% yoy)

Could this be the tanker showing signs of turning? Here's hoping so.

3.2 Average price by country and government office region

Price, monthly change and annual change by country and government office region

Country and government office region Price Monthly change Annual change
England £249,408 0.0% 3.0%
Northern Ireland (Quarter 3 - 2018) £135,060 2.3% 4.8%
Scotland £152,961 -0.1% 5.8%
Wales £162,089 0.5% 5.8%
East Midlands £194,803 1.1% 6.0%
East of England £294,027 -0.1% 2.0%
London £482,241 -0.4% -0.3%
North East £132,049 0.8% 3.5%
North West £162,915 -0.8% 3.3%
South East £328,059 -0.2% 1.7%
South West £260,142 0.3% 4.3%
West Midlands Region £199,763 1.1% 6.1%
Yorkshire and The Humber £162,009 -1.1% 2.6%

 

4.1 Sales volumes

Number of sales volumes by country

Country July 2018 July 2017 Difference
England 63,774 76,993 -17.2%
Northern Ireland (Quarter 3 - 2018) 5,722 6,533 -12.4%
Scotland 8,770 8,943 -1.9%
Wales 3,702 4,143 -10.6%

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It's worth noting HPI actually increased this month an a YoY basis. And i give up keep repeating my health warnings about the sales difference (i.e. section 4.1) which is even repeated in the report about many September sales not making it in yet. it happens every month and that section should just be removed.

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Yay, second biggest monthly fall in my area (well, depending on how tightly you define it, still looks positive at the more local scale :( )

Those sales volume numbers...

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London now y-o-y negative, SE not far behind. Time to stock up on tins of beans, the banks are going to go pop again in the next year or two.

Edited by Dorkins

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The FT has published an opinion piece that must have been inspired by the latest LR figures.

Will UK house prices ever rise again?

 

Quote

You might think you know where you are with bricks and mortar. But the truth is that you probably don’t — unless you have a complete grasp of how population trends, interest rates and political priorities have shifted over the past century and how they might shift again over the next. Just because the period in which most of us have become adults has been one of almost nonstop property price growth does not mean that it makes sense to extrapolate that growth indefinitely.

 

 

 

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Flats and maisonettes leading the way down. Wonder why that may be?

Property type September 2018 September 2017 Difference
Detached £356,912 £339,294 5.2%
Semi-detached £219,776 £210,278 4.5%
Terraced £188,629 £181,686 3.8%
Flat or maisonette £203,374 £203,910 -0.3%
All £232,554 £224,729 3.5%

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3 minutes ago, rantnrave said:

Flats and maisonettes leading the way down. Wonder why that may be?

Property type September 2018 September 2017 Difference
Detached £356,912 £339,294 5.2%
Semi-detached £219,776 £210,278 4.5%
Terraced £188,629 £181,686 3.8%
Flat or maisonette £203,374 £203,910 -0.3%
All £232,554 £224,729 3.5%

Even more noticeable for England:

Average price change by property type for England

Property type September 2018 September 2017 Difference
Detached £382,714 £365,228 4.8%
Semi-detached £233,050 £223,502 4.3%
Terraced £201,818 £195,140 3.4%
Flat or maisonette £225,757 £228,595 -1.2%
All £249,408 £242,041 3.0%

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2 hours ago, rantnrave said:

Flats and maisonettes leading the way down. Wonder why that may be?

Property type September 2018 September 2017 Difference
Detached £356,912 £339,294 5.2%
Semi-detached £219,776 £210,278 4.5%
Terraced £188,629 £181,686 3.8%
Flat or maisonette £203,374 £203,910 -0.3%
All £232,554 £224,729 3.5%

Because they are cheaper so as prices rise they go up more because the demand for cheaper property grows faster. 

When they are falling the reverse happens.

I would imagine if rents were to double or half a similar thing would happen with cheaper rents rising/falling more.

 

This is sort of related but about food

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Giffen_good

Edited by iamnumerate

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17 hours ago, mat109 said:

Down it goes...Wow.

This site can be amazing only here can we see this quote with this as the headline of the report:

Average house prices in England have increased by 3.0% in the year to September 2018 (up from 2.8% in August 2018)

And for the avoidance of cherry picking the UK report

"Average house prices in the UK increased by 3.5% in the year to September 2018, up from 3.1% in August 2018 (Figure 1)"

In that case I think we have very different interpretations of what down means.

Likewise falling sales figures (conveniently chopped out by the poster who posted the table without the context of the report. Which says (as it does every month):

"Note: The annual % change in the ‘Difference’ column will be influenced primarily by level of completeness of the latest month’s data reported and does not necessarily reflect the genuine trends.

The estimate for July 2018 is calculated based on around 85% of the final registered transactions. The number of property transactions for July 2018 will increase as more transactions are incorporated into the index.

Comparing the provisional volume estimate for July 2017 to the provisional estimate for July 2018, volume transactions fell by 1.3% in England and increased by 0.5% in Scotland, 2.9% in Wales and 4.9% in Northern Ireland."

We moan about VI twisting the figures perhaps kettle pot black springs to mind.

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6 minutes ago, Pebbles said:

This site can be amazing only here can we see this quote with this as the headline of the report:

Average house prices in England have increased by 3.0% in the year to September 2018 (up from 2.8% in August 2018)

And for the avoidance of cherry picking the UK report

"Average house prices in the UK increased by 3.5% in the year to September 2018, up from 3.1% in August 2018 (Figure 1)"

That would be much more misleading as a headline - the annual increase is dependent upon numbers we already know (it would've had to be a very big monthly drop indeed to move the annual number negative). Annual figures are less prone to noise (due to it averaging out) and to seasonal variations (don't require any seasonal fudging) but with non-noise ups and downs within a year you need to be careful about drawing conclusions about the direction things are heading at this moment.

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Not really going anywhere in terms of price change. Been annual change of around 3% for months and monthly change between -0.5 and +0.5 for a year. Need forced sellers to move it down significantly. No deal Brexit could do that.

 

 

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23 hours ago, Pebbles said:

This site can be amazing....

The figures (whichever direction) are only numbers told to the Market's by organs with a huge V.I.  They have NEVER been rubber stamped by a critical third party, whoever the source organ.  What would you say, if you knew you had such a free hand?  I know what I would do with my skin in the game.

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On 16/11/2018 at 18:14, Freezer? Best place for it said:

What is HPD please? House Price Deflation?

 

 

Yes.

 

Is the article saying house prices are deflating?

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  • 259 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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