The House Price Crash has started ?

[TheCountOfNowhere]

Just popping in to say hello.

 

Been watching things from afar two things....

 

1) Seems to me the collapse has started

2) One of two muppets keep saying the BoE wont raise interest rates, despite them reluctantly having to raise them twice this year. A little birdie in London ( bearing in mind I've called the last two IR rises ) tells me rates will have to go up in January.

Anyway, enjoy the poll.

Im still watching.

 

[BoredByTorque]

I think it's started but there will be still lots out there who were prepared to stretch themselves ridiculously who'll think the decline is a dip and will jump in, keeping the illusion going a little longer.

Just had to give my head a big wobble as we nearly bought in the Aus market that is teetering like the UK. We have until Monday 5 pm with the cooling off period, emails and phone calls were started today to withdraw.

I personally think we're in for a financial readjustment worldwide and me and the other half agreed today to see what 6 months down the line looks like.

[winkie]

 

[Fromage Frais]

17 minutes ago, BoredByTorque said:

I think it's started but there will be still lots out there who were prepared to stretch themselves ridiculously who'll think the decline is a dip and will jump in, keeping the illusion going a little longer.

Just had to give my head a big wobble as we nearly bought in the Aus market that is teetering like the UK. We have until Monday 5 pm with the cooling off period, emails and phone calls were started today to withdraw.

I personally think we're in for a financial readjustment worldwide and me and the other half agreed today to see what 6 months down the line looks like.

Agreed,

A few still buying I felt a little put out as the falls resulted in a few properties i had my eyes on going for discounts but not bargains.

Yet today 3 good houses (same estate in Thorpe end/top of dussindale drive) have gone up same time so same actual model (ish).  So pretty much the same in most aspects.

Last  asking 520 "not desperate to sell" yet listing in November and before brexit...which does not compute.

3 houses + the same exactly + worst time of year + brexit incoming + prices falling

Should be interesting and the folks who bought one for 520 earlier in the year should be worried.

 

[Bear Hug]

It does look like it's happening.  

I am in the South East, where prices have almost doubled in the last 10 years or so:

- everyone I know who could stretch and buy a house even at ridiculously inflated prices over the last couple of years, went ahead and bought one

- almost everyone I know who bought 7-9 years ago and enjoyed massive paper gains did not cash them out.  They doubled down instead: sold up and got  biggest house they could afford with the biggest mortgage they could afford

[localhero1983]

50 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Just popping in to say hello.

 

Been watching things from afar two things....

 

1) Seems to me the collapse has started

2) One of two muppets keep saying the BoE wont raise interest rates, despite them reluctantly having to raise them twice this year. A little birdie in London ( bearing in mind I've called the last two IR rises ) tells me rates will have to go up in January.

Anyway, enjoy the poll.

Im still watching.

 

I would say yes.

BUT!

I think the foundations for a property crash along with other things, which are worse but irrelevant to this board, started probably just short off pre 2005. Your question would have been far more interesting had it included the word "imminent", had it done so I would not be have been able to give you an honest yes or no answer, I have seen too many false dawns and am now too long in the tooth to celebrate a property crash until I see it actually happening.

And another thing, we basically went All In, to use a poker analogy, that means people will do desperate things in order to keep the plates spinning. A safe recession yet painful recession should have happened 2005, it is now too late

[simon2]

Sentiment has swung to negative. Although the media at large seem to be scared of scaremongering. 

Where I am, prices have come down a tad (up to 10%). Some houses I see get sold. Most seem to be sticking around and are only sold after reductions. Some aren't sold at all and are pulled, only to reappear after a few months (usually at the same price or more).

I think for a full-blown crash, we need fear to set in - the fear that your biggest asset might be worth a lot less in the future. I don't think that day will ever come due to other agendas. A benign decline over a decade would be more palatable.

[Doner Kebab]

57 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Just popping in to say hello.

 

Been watching things from afar two things....

 

1) Seems to me the collapse has started

2) One of two muppets keep saying the BoE wont raise interest rates, despite them reluctantly having to raise them twice this year. A little birdie in London ( bearing in mind I've called the last two IR rises ) tells me rates will have to go up in January.

Anyway, enjoy the poll.

Im still watching.

 

Nice to hear from you Count. Hope you are well. I hope you are right about the rate rise - I suppose it will be pinned on any Bregzit deal or lack of one.

It certainly seems to have started in the South and East especially. I've noticed quite a few 'unexpectedly' return to the market recently after the buyer pulled out. 

Still waiting to see proof of it in Scotland though as we are thinking of relocating there.

[Si1]

Started 2007, but yeah, next leg cometh

[btd1981]

Bought for the first time in 2007, crash started weeks later and we were goatse'd for the next decade. Lost house 2011. Finally gave in at the start of the year and bought again, so yeah, it's inevitable.

[Nick_wacker]

Yep there is definitely something afoot. (south west)

Number of houses within my RM search criteria is double the average of the last 4 years. (And potentially could be higher as we have several new build developments and they only list one of each type on RM)

Major reductions in asking price over I would say 40% on the results, (100K reduction on a 475 house in a nice village, for example).  Where there are no reduction reasonably nice houses are hanging around.

whether or not this wobble turns into a crash is yet to be seen....

 

[macca13]

2nd half of the Keiser report has a segment about collapsing house prices..

https://www.rt.com/shows/keiser-report/443605-uk-austerity-economic-disaster/

[nome]

Not in my areas (NW England and N Wales) or my price range (£100k-£180k)

 

Record low stock levels and falling.

Record high prices.

Plenty of idiots still seemingly willing and able to pile in and buy anything other than the completely batshit crazy overpriced stuff.

[darkmarket]

1 hour ago, btd1981 said:

Bought for the first time in 2007, crash started weeks later and we were goatse'd for the next decade. Lost house 2011. Finally gave in at the start of the year and bought again, so yeah, it's inevitable.

Thank you for your service.

[Switch625]

Nice to see you Count.

In my area, Cornwall, they just announced that a record number of transactions for the last financial year were buy to let or second homes, this was from an incredibly small pool of sales however. My take on this would be that it was the last of the greater fools rushing in to bag a "bargain".

For sale signs are going up and staying up for longer, building sites are springing up all over the place, but sales volumes are continuing to fall.

Prices have dropped a bit, maybe 5% over the last 8 months I have been watching, so in my opinion it has started, but as the indebted don't yet feel the pressure to sell, currently it's slowly as she goes. If rates rise even a percent or two, then fear will set in and it will be full speed ahead.

[Bear Hug]

30 minutes ago, macca13 said:

2nd half of the Keiser report has a segment about collapsing house prices..

https://www.rt.com/shows/keiser-report/443605-uk-austerity-economic-disaster/

Kaizer is a bit too hysterical for my liking normally but Ross Ashcroft interview (from 14:10) is excellent.

[ftb_fml]

Prices are definitely declining in and around Oxford.

1 hour ago, macca13 said:

2nd half of the Keiser report has a segment about collapsing house prices..

https://www.rt.com/shows/keiser-report/443605-uk-austerity-economic-disaster/

Excellent link - thanks. Nice to see them referencing Wolf Street in the first half.

29 minutes ago, Bear Hug said:

Kaizer is a bit too hysterical for my liking normally but Ross Ashcroft interview (from 14:10) is excellent.

Yeah, a hell of a lot of sense being spoken there IMO. Just like everyone else I know a few people who gauge their self-worth by the size of their mortgage and the cost of their new Laura Ashley curtains - have posted the link to Facebook in an effort to rattle a few gilded cages!

[disenfranchised]

It's wobbling, but it's not "crashing" until  month on month falls burst through into year on year, and then get steeper IMO.

Prices peaked in 1989 then slid down for a while, a deeper crash in 92, rallied & dropped again twice in 93/94 before bottoming in 1995. That's a 6 year bear market, so not sure what we should expect to see next. It doesn't follow that it has to be steep & sudden. Australia has been losing month on month for a year solid now in the main cities, but it's only down 5-6%.

[Pop321]

2 hours ago, disenfranchised said:

It's wobbling, but it's not "crashing" until  month on month falls burst through into year on year, and then get steeper IMO.

Prices peaked in 1989 then slid down for a while, a deeper crash in 92, rallied & dropped again twice in 93/94 before bottoming in 1995. That's a 6 year bear market, so not sure what we should expect to see next. It doesn't follow that it has to be steep & sudden. Australia has been losing month on month for a year solid now in the main cities, but it's only down 5-6%.

Feels like a 1989 possibility again...as you describe. 

I was around in ‘89 and enjoyed a life changing opportunity when sentiment is depressed. A year on year decline sounds like one thing on paper for but the bargain hunter it hides some superb and spectacular falls. I managed to buy in 1986, sell in 1989....rent....and buy back in during 1991. I was 23 when we rebought and had no mortgage before I was 30.

Different world now, I know....but have faith....even a ‘gentle yoy decline’ can create some great opportunities for those on the sidelines. 

I wouldn’t be surprised to hear people getting 50% reductions based on today’s prices. 

So for me....early signs of a crash in t’north. Only modest but if something is overpriced it doesn’t sell....even after 6 months. Whereas 2017 it would wait for the market to catch up and sell anyway. So a weak start of a crash....but a start. Just need to stop pesky Londoners buying in the dales.....then it will begin to properly fall back. 

[peter_2008]

I am also in SW.I would say the ones sold recently were about 10% down on peak sold price. 

Bottom of the market sell very quickly if they are below £200K. I think that is because in my local area, young couple in good jobs have a household income between £40 to £50k ish, and sadly, they always max out.

It occurred to me that most (young) buyers seem not actually care about the house price itself, they care about monthly payment first and foremost; and they think if a lender offers them a mortgage it is the indisputable evidence that the price is affordable.

Edited November 10, 2018 by peter_2008

[ftb_fml]

17 minutes ago, peter_2008 said:

It occurred to me that most (young) buyers seem not actually care about the house price itself, they care about monthly payment first and foremost; and they think if a lender offers them a mortgage it is the indisputable evidence that the price is affordable.

The result of a combination of wishful thinking and VI / establishment brainwashing and propaganda. They'll care when they're in massive negative equity and can't re-mortgage (so are saddled with an eye-watering SVR) or can no longer service their debt due to interest rate rises. This of course is when people like us step in and buy their property for 60% of what they paid for it, leaving them with just the shirt on their backs. If they're lucky.

[Steppenpig]

5 hours ago, macca13 said:

2nd half of the Keiser report...

Was Max Keiser really anti brexit? I thought it was exactly his sort of thing.

[Bear Hug]

29 minutes ago, Steppenpig said:

Was Max Keiser really anti brexit? I thought it was exactly his sort of thing.

I thought so too.  My initial reaction was that RT had their eye off the ball for a while. 

Then I remembered that our own propaganda machine pointed out that Russian propaganda machine does not necessarily take a side on a particular issue but generally trolls both sides just to cause disagreement.  And any coverage of Brexit would tick that discord box quite nicely.

Edited November 10, 2018 by Bear Hug

[reddog]

Definitely wobbling, but I think we need 6 months of chunky drops before we can say HPC is on.

[Pop321]

2 hours ago, ftb_fml said:

The result of a combination of wishful thinking and VI / establishment brainwashing and propaganda. They'll care when they're in massive negative equity and can't re-mortgage (so are saddled with an eye-watering SVR) or can no longer service their debt due to interest rate rises. This of course is when people like us step in and buy their property for 60% of what they paid for it, leaving them with just the shirt on their backs. If they're lucky.

Indeed. Although I never left anyone with the shirt in their back. 

There may be some who have never seen a real drop....rest assured prices become very attainable. It’s not that I have left people without a shirt rather I gouge out their eyes and p155 in their eye sockets.

There comes a point when buying ‘today’ is not an option because tomorrow the price will drop....and once that happens and people MUST sell today then they leave themselves to the mercy of ‘old investors’. Owner occupiers even bury themselves away in fear of further falls but what they miss is the prices in the shop window are a lie....and trades are made off market lower than 10/15 years earlier. It’s not that the price falls it’s that the sentiment disappears and property is notoriously illiquid. 

I am not sure about the ‘when’ but I  have seen it enough times to know what to expect. I couldn’t be any more bearish on current prices. And whilst that impacts my paper profit......nothing would make me happier than a decent correction.