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Hpc Timescales Please

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Now that we are well and truely over the HPI hill and heading down, when does everyone think they will crash and by how much, and has this changed from last year etc?

This should be useful for everybody.

ps. Can we keep the personal abuse out of this thread!

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I want to point out early in this thread everyone will have different regional observations.

The Midlands will be hard hit due to unemployment being up.

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Now that we are well and truely over the HPI hill and heading down, when does everyone think they will crash and by how much, and has this changed from last year etc?

This should be useful for everybody.

ps. Can we keep the personal abuse out of this thread!

I'll abuse who I want when I want you fascist. The freedom to be rude is a cornerstone of a healthy forum.

Sorry.

I think it will be much slower than I imagined, at least at first. I've pictured a snowball effect. Say 5% down this year accelerating to 10% next year.

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Now that we are well and truely over the HPI hill and heading down, when does everyone think they will crash and by how much, and has this changed from last year etc?

This should be useful for everybody.

ps. Can we keep the personal abuse out of this thread!

Do you realise how many times this question has been asked in the past? Do you realise how many times the assumptions in the question have been shown to be wrong?

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Do you realise how many times this question has been asked in the past? Do you realise how many times the assumptions in the question have been shown to be wrong?

A crash is a journey, not a destination.. ooo..eee

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Do you realise how many times this question has been asked in the past? Do you realise how many times the assumptions in the question have been shown to be wrong?

Its not unlike the boy who kept crying wolf isn't it? The people got tired of the false calls and in the end didn't listen when the wolf was really there.

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Do you realise how many times this question has been asked in the past? Do you realise how many times the assumptions in the question have been shown to be wrong?

And

Do you have any idea how many times you spout the same crap(as above)

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They'll be up by 3% overall, but maybe a bit more also wouldn't suprise me.

I know lots of people buying houses at the moment, hence my belief there is upwards pressure.

how many of them are also selling - therefore (by your logic) suggesting that this will create downward pressure?

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They'll be up by 3% overall, but maybe a bit more also wouldn't suprise me.

I know lots of people buying houses at the moment, hence my belief there is upwards pressure.

I don't know anyone buying a house. All I see are growing numbers "for sale" signs and EA windows full of properties with many marked "new price" or "price reduced." The only sold signs have STC in very tiny letters and they stick around for months like that. No, its down time for property I am afraid. We have had a good innings with prices rising since 1996 and no market can rise for ever without a correction. Never has.

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At the bottom of the last crash average ouse prise got to just below 3 x average earnings.

If this crash really does get going, and change joe public's perception that property is a bad investment (like the stock market 2002/04), Then I believe we could see a new low of close to 2.5 x average earnings.

I currently plan to try and find the right house when they drop below the 3.5x mark. (If everyone thinks that is a bad idea at the time, then I will know it to be right.)

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My area, West Midlands was down about 5% in 2005 according to Nationwide. I think we will see another 15% off this year with the crash beginning in 2007.

Me west midlands aussi. That's how I see it and hope how it pans out. However, it's probably the best case scenario in that I can't see any more dramatic reductions than 15% . Hardcore evidence of a crash in summer 2007 may persuade me to hold off until 2008.

However, if still stagnating in 2007 then we have a soft landing on our hands.

Angry_barbarian.gif

post-67-1138814274.gif

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south west - plymouth

prices are down maybe a 2 - 4 percent since peak. All this +1.4% in a month is absolute bull from where I am standing - just steady but agonisingly slow downward movement.

my pitch is for much of the same this year - unless we get some decent intersest rate rises I cant see any significant movement. oil seems to be comming up nicely though

http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/fds/hi/...welve_month.stm

should hopefully start making some decent headlines when it goes past the last peak possibly by the end of the week ... $70+ would be nice.

Interest rates are absoloutely key in this HPC - they go up and were laughing.

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I Googled the Definitions of crash and came up with these:

fall or come down violently; "The branch crashed down on my car"; "The plane crashed in the sea"

move with, or as if with, a crashing noise; "The car crashed through the glass door"

undergo damage or destruction on impact; "the plane crashed into the ocean"; "The car crashed into the lamp post"

move violently as through a barrier; "The terrorists crashed the gate"

break violently or noisily; smash;

occupy, usually uninvited; "My son's friends crashed our house last weekend"

barge in: enter uninvited; informal; "let's crash the party!"

clang: a loud resonant repeating noise; "he could hear the clang of distant bells"

cause to crash; "The terrorists crashed the car into the gate of the palace"

hurl or thrust violently; "He dashed the plate against the wall"; "Waves were dashing against the rock"

a serious accident (usually involving one or more vehicles); "they are still investigating the crash of the TWA plane"

a sudden large decline of business or the prices of stocks (especially one that causes additional failures)

undergo a sudden and severe downturn; "the economy crashed"; "will the stock market crash again?"

the act of colliding with something; "his crash through the window"; "the fullback's smash into the defensive line"

stop operating; "My computer crashed last night"; "The system goes down at least once a week"

doss: sleep in a convenient place; "You can crash here, though it's not very comfortable"

(computer science) an event that causes a computer system to become inoperative; "the crash occurred during a thunderstorm and the system has been down ever since"

wordnet.princeton.edu/perl/webwn

The issue is that a crash is something which happens quickly, not something drawn out over many years.

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I'm looking in north west London and I have seen a lot of properties sticking on estate agents' boardds for ages, and then being reduced. Some new properties have been marketed at £10-15 higher than similar ones already on the market, and then have been reduced after a few weeks.

The figures from the baks and former building societies are clearly based on the situation in a parrallel universe. I used to get furious with smug friends and family saying that I really should get on to the ladder as quickly as possible, but I think current "rises" are nothing but an illusion.

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Now that we are well and truely over the HPI hill and heading down,

Erm, most indicators are that housing is up overall for the last year, if only by a few percent. The 'crash' hasn't even begun yet.

Judging by the increase in money supply, small 'recovery' in prices, increase in mortgage approvals and a big dose of positive media comment, there is a good chance that house prices will rise for a few months at least.

Looking back through history, these adjustments seem to take several years from when they started. Since this has been a prolonged boom I reckon there will be a prolonged bust.

Perhaps late 2006 with a slowdown in consumer spending. Perhaps 2007 with increasing IR's. Perhaps 2008 with reduced public spending and unemployment.

Either way I don't care, I'm out of the housing market for at least a few years and try not to bother with the week to week, month to month guff that comes around.

But the 'crash' hasn't started, don't kid yourself.

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I'll abuse who I want when I want you fascist. The freedom to be rude is a cornerstone of a healthy forum.

Sorry.

Grow up.

Do you realise how many times this question has been asked in the past? Do you realise how many times the assumptions in the question have been shown to be wrong?

Yeah yeah yeah, but unlike you TTRTR, lots of new people are joining everyday so I think its relevant for this sort of information to be updated as people re-adjust their view in light of economic activity. Non?

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I only think things will kick off when IRs go up, or Headline HPI goes negative or we go into recession.

The only thing keeping us out of a recession is people are taking on more debt. Once this stops (or is inline with wage inflation) the shit will hit the fan. People cannot continuously live beyond their means.

HPI is being kept positive by NI, Scotland and parts of the North. This cannot rise forever, and when it stabalises (maybe 1 year?) HPI will go negative because of falling prices in the south.

Interest Rates? Who knows.

Edited by Jason

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This has been a lengthy property boom and, in the absence of high inflation to mask real price falls, the inevitable correction will also be lengthy.

Expect to see prices coming off at around 5% per annum for a period of 4 or 5 years; factor in retail/wage inflation and the 'real' cost of property will be around 30-35% less than now. It's worth waiting that long because while house prices are always 'sticky down', rents are even more 'sticky up' and there is no shortage of rental properties to drive up rents (except perhaps London and it's immediate environs). On any metric the conditions simply do not exist for rental yields to align themselves with grossly over-bought property prices.

This prediction is 'worst case' from the bear point of view; if external shocks to the system emerge then expect to see a much more rapid collapse in house prices.

Edited by Red Baron

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minus 15-20% over 7 years against a backdrop of 3% inflation pa...........meaning a drop of a 33% in real terms

Yes I think those reductions are most definitely possible, I think minus 10% over 5 years, or around 25% real terms.

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Yes I think those reductions are most definitely possible, I think minus 10% over 5 years, or around 25% real terms.

That's what I think, so i'm buying my property at the end of this year.

I live in Milton keynes, selling a ~250k detached property to buy a ~500k detached property.

(So and boom/bust effect is dampened for me)

I think prices went down around 5% for detached properties in MK last year, and should do again this year, so I'll be seeing some benefit for waiting.

Maybe I could wait 4 more years and save 50K, but I'll make the educated choice to move now, as it suits my circumstances. This site has helped me decide when is the best time for me to buy.

I don't anticipate waiting longer unless prices in MK go up,

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That's what I think, so i'm buying my property at the end of this year.

I live in Milton keynes, selling a ~250k detached property to buy a ~500k detached property.

(So and boom/bust effect is dampened for me)

I think prices went down around 5% for detached properties in MK last year, and should do again this year, so I'll be seeing some benefit for waiting.

Maybe I could wait 4 more years and save 50K, but I'll make the educated choice to move now, as it suits my circumstances. This site has helped me decide when is the best time for me to buy.

I don't anticipate waiting longer unless prices in MK go up,

Indeed. As long as you dont get mortgaged up to the hilt in case rates rise. I think you can wait at least a year maybe two IMO.

In the South West, the earnings ratio is around 7 now. My house is worth around £220k, and I bought it for 100k in 1999. I'm staying put for at least another 4/5 years. Quite happy here, I'll be 39 then and hopefully after saving and paying a large chunk of my mortgage off, will be in a good position to move.

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ok here's what I think will happen.

....I reckon the double-dip scenario may well happen.

by that I mean.....2006-2009 we see falling(but officially stagnating) prices.

2011-2013...BIG falls as the public sector gets shredded.

take a look at the 1970's -1980's graph.....something similar is afoot.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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