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Pebbles

Halifax October release up 0.7% but HPI slows to 1.5%

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Here is the report nothing exceptional plus come with multitude of warnings about data taken from it own mortgages only and as a national figure no accounting of local markets.

https://static.halifax.co.uk/assets/pdf/mortgages/pdf/October-2018-House-Price-Index.pdf

Forecast was +0.9 for month which considering its only 0.2 out and these monthly figures can be so erratic (although nowhere near Rightmoves) is pretty much on forecast.

Overall rate is now 1.5% annual so a real terms fall.

My own thoughts: if this is what the powers that be want inflation to eat the debt then they may well be able to pull this off. Wages and inflation are well ahead of HPI now yet transactions are still occuring. I'm not seeing a 89 style collapse yet however affordability is slowly coming back. Mortgage rates are still low and the BoE is very happy to provide cheap money if it goes pete tong again.

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That is a relief.......a downside is lower or falling prices belts will tighten, less will be spent, find other sources of entertainment that are better but very often cost little or free.....take a walk in the park, make a cake, feed the birds.

Very often when people feel they are getting richer they spend more.....the house will buy it, until it ends up buying you, costing in both time and money.ūüėČ

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1 hour ago, Pebbles said:

My own thoughts: if this is what the powers that be want inflation to eat the debt then they may well be able to pull this off.ÔĽŅ

Agreed. Insofar as they have any "plan" to get out of this mess, this is what they'd like to see happen, and if they can continue the current trajectory for 10 years or so they might just pull it off.

Not a very popular opinion on here I know, but I still can't see any sort of major crash happening without forced sales, and I can't see anything on the horizon that is going to increase those. Low interest rates, low unemployment (lots of crappy jobs, but..), banks also seem to be much less ruthless about repossession than they were in the early 90's. At the moment there is little need and no incentive to sell for most. Market grinding to a halt maybe, which we are seeing to some extent, but unless or until we get a dramatic rise in interest rates its hard to see this stalemate ending.

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A five years of 4% inflation (both wage and retail prices) against a largely stagnant market would be in real terms a HPC of 20% (1.04^5 = 1.21) everyone would get away with it except savers. Affordability would return and no-one would have Negative equity. As a saver i would be hacked off but would still celebrate affordability returning for my younger sister and this would be a HPC if this inflation raised to 5% and house prices remained static.

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12 minutes ago, Freezer? Best place for it said:

A massive V.I. is hardly going to shout about going negative. ¬†Up, down, or sideways, the ‚Äúdisclosed‚ÄĚ numbers are in the same league as RM.

So who's figures do we trust then? For me its land registry but the government is the biggest VI out there. We are also VI's too albit cheering for the other side.

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1 hour ago, Pebbles said:

So who's figures do we trust then? For me its land registry but the government is the biggest VI out there. We are also VI's too albit cheering for the other side.

The land registry's numbers are probably the closest to actual fact that we've got.

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2 hours ago, Pebbles said:

So who's figures do we trust then? 

I agree about the Land Registry.  It is so difficult to trust any huge V.I. who produces their OWN numbers, from their OWN data. It would be a poor troop  not to be a little artistic - to what degree is interesting.  What is needed is an actual organ to rubber stamp the numbers, may be only a months worth.  Until this happens, any numbers are in the same team as Santa.

 

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4 hours ago, Pebbles said:

five years of 4% inflation (both wage and retail prices) against a largely stagnant market would be in real terms a HPC of 20% (1.04^5 = 1.21) everyone would get away with it except savers. Affordability would return and no-one would have Negative equity. As a saver i would be hacked off but would still celebrate affordability returning for my younger sister and this would be a HPC if this inflation raised to 5% and house prices remained static.

If you believe that is the likely future, the logical thing to do is buy now and lock in todays mortgage rates with a 5 or 10 year fix.

That is what I did 5yrs ago, I didn't believe the market was going to crash and needed to move (almost everything on my road had gone to BTL, and the character of the area was going downhill rapidly - the first time buyer I sold to, turned out to be a BTLr who promptly turned our nice average sized terrace into a 6 room unlicensed HMO).

Anyway my logic (for which I was called out as a troll on here) was that by locking in the very low interest rates for 5yrs I was effectively getting a 15%ish subsidy to buy which would provide a good degree of insulation against any likely price crash.   

I wouldn't do it today, the 30% rise in prices since I bought has raised the risk to a level I wouldn't want to take on. However, others could come to a different conclusion and mortgage rates are now even cheaper than in 2013..  

 

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Guardian article: https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/nov/07/house-price-growth-at-its-slowest-for-five-years-halifax-says

Quote

Howard Archer, chief economic adviser at EY Item Club, said the 0.7% month-on-month house price increase in October, was likely to be a correction after a particularly sharp 1.3% dip in September. 

Quote

Jeremy Leaf, a north London estate agent and a former residential chairman of the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (Rics), said: ‚ÄúOn the ground, realism is hitting home to many sellers who are starting to appreciate that the first offer they receive could very well be their only one, however unpalatable it may be.‚ÄĚ

Off topic but I don't think I've read a mainstream UK housing article in the last 10 years that hasn't included a comment from one or both of these geezers. They must be on speed dial. 

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5 hours ago, mattyboy1973 said:

I still can't see any sort of major crash happening without forced sales, and I can't see anything on the horizon that is going to increase those.

S24?

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1 hour ago, GregBowman said:

Generally flats though wouldn't you say not family houses 

I rent a family house in St Albans, my landlord has told me he is affected by S24.

Edited by Dorkins

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16 hours ago, Dorkins said:

I rent a family house in St Albans, my landlord has told me he is affected by S24.

Generally...Of course houses are rented out I have rented 3 in between owning over the last 10 years. Wasn't easy finding them in a similar area Barnet, Brookmans Park and Hertford - of course people rent family houses but detached houses in mature areas aren't exactly easy to find. Rightmove the whole of Herts 4 bed around 2-2.5k a month 130 properties that won't change dramatically with S24

But of course there will be landlords living off perhaps an inheritance house or their partners who will be affected

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  • 285 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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