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Look at places like Didsbury in Manchester, ridiculous rises and no sign of slowing down either. In fact, same applies to alot of south Manchester. Other neighbourhoods I look at in the north - prices not changed since 2008.

Edited by Drummer

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In london the props have been stretched as far as they will go. With ultra low interests rates, there are enough people in the more desirable areas of the north(despite lower average wages)  with either a decent deposit, existing equity or help to buy who can still play the game (for now) at very high prices, rather than outrageously high prices in London.  

 

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11 hours ago, Trump Invective said:

Northern England house prices to rise at faster rate than London

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/nov/02/northern-england-house-prices-to-rise-at-faster-rate-than-london?

Some wild predictions in this crystal ball gazing organisation. Does anyone seriously believe stuff like this any more? 

Made up sh1t based on a mix of wishful thinking, past performance and decades of indoctrination. And maybe even correct, for a time at least.

Would rising faster than London currently amount to more than a row of beans anyway?

Straight after the '87 crash the EA mouthpieces were shouting about how the stock market was done for and everyone would switch to property.

Savills should try going to two decimal places to make it look as if they spent more than 5 minutes on those numbers.

 

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If:
1) there is a long-run-roughly-constant-ratio of house prices in London to house prices in Manchester, and,
2) in one period,  London house prices have been rising faster than Manchester, then
we should not be surprised if in the subsequent period, house prices rise faster in Manchester than London.

Clearly, to the extent that in the long-run there are structural factors affecting the economies of Manchester and London differently, we wold not expect the ratio of house prices in the two cities to stay constant, but arguably, London prices have got out of line relative to the rest of the country and some catching up of prices relative to London is to be expected.

(Of course, many of us would argue that prices overall are completely out of line with earnings/affordability and that either earnings will eventually g up relative to house prices - and we can discuss whether that long run equilibrium should be to 3:1 or 5:1.)

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I don't think this is unreasonable for nominal prices to rise slowly or stay stationary. I see no HPC nominally but the debt inflated away so a 20% rise over 5 years may well be optimistic a 10% rise over the same timescale and with 20% inflation over that period would be a real terms fall.

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Yes completely delusional as far as I am concerned. Maybe they will go up in Burnley and the like but how can further huge rises occur in places like Edinburgh, York, Manchester and the like? More likely they will fall less than London over the next few years.

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Prices havent risen that much in burnley and i doubt they will by much. Just walked passed an estate agent in a north west town, half an hour by train into manchester.  Looked in window out of curiousity. Repo two  bed terrace in a less desirable part of the town, not bad condition by the photos, newish kitchen, 65 grand. Exact same type of price as when i looked at similar properties on same road at height of credit crunch in 2008. You might not want to live there ( although i nearly did) , but there is nowhere half an hour commutable into london, even a  bedsit in the worst hole, for 65 grand. 

The desirable places in manchester, didsbury, chorlton, sale, have shot up because their are just enough proffessional middle class, who with ultra low rates can pay a premium to live in those desirable areas. It is still seen as a sure bet investment.  Only thing that will change that is a horrible shock. 

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17 minutes ago, nothernsoul said:

The desirable places in manchester, didsbury, chorlton, sale, have shot up because their are just enough proffessional middle class, who with ultra low rates can pay a premium to live in those desirable areas. It is still seen as a sure bet investment.  Only thing that will change that is a horrible shock. 

Or rather, when that does change it will come as a horrible shock.

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15 hours ago, nothernsoul said:

Prices havent risen that much in burnley and i doubt they will by much. Just walked passed an estate agent in a north west town, half an hour by train into manchester.  Looked in window out of curiousity. Repo two  bed terrace in a less desirable part of the town, not bad condition by the photos, newish kitchen, 65 grand. Exact same type of price as when i looked at similar properties on same road at height of credit crunch in 2008. You might not want to live there ( although i nearly did) , but there is nowhere half an hour commutable into london, even a  bedsit in the worst hole, for 65 grand. 

The desirable places in manchester, didsbury, chorlton, sale, have shot up because their are just enough proffessional middle class, who with ultra low rates can pay a premium to live in those desirable areas. It is still seen as a sure bet investment.  Only thing that will change that is a horrible shock. 

It’s an interesting comparison you make that 30 mins from Manchester (proper jobs, proper money) can be bought for £65k.....but nothing like that price differential in London.

Whilst Mayfair, Kensington & Co are unique and command daft prices (I know these places have gone mad and are falling....but we all know they will always be pricey).....30 minutes away from London Centre are definitely not unique. But they are daft pricey  

My brother was in North London (into Liverpool st in 30 mins) and it looks like any low end northern town. Launderette, betting shop, hardware shop, curry house, Tesco local, locals scraping to get by, charity shop and bank. Only main difference seemed to be there was more real crime and people in jobs might be paid a bit more for a ‘London allowance’.  So my brother sold his modest 3 bed semi for £600k, left work 10 years earlier and moved back North.

Mayfair v’s central Manchester/Leeds or Birmingham probably too different to try compare.

I know Burnley and North London are different but not sure NL is 10x better.

i think one post summarised the true position well. London vs North gap will close....but only because the falls in London will be more than the falls in. North. Not quite the same bullish message.😉

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Although manchester is the city with second largest economy, it is still dwarfed by london. What manchester council is good at is attracting public investment, that led to expansion of their universities( largest student population in europe) BBC in Salford, commonwealth games leading to rich arabs buying man city, and the growth in public sector jobs under new labour. However, the money from well paid jobs doesnt run deep, manchester is also the 4th most deprived area in the uk. In my opinion it is very much a rent seeking economy, lacking creative or entrepreneurial dynamism (except asians in the retail sector)  compared to London or other world cities,  so you are unlikely to bump into somebody launching their own tech company or the like.

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35 minutes ago, nothernsoul said:

Although manchester is the city with second largest economy, it is still dwarfed by london. What manchester council is good at is attracting public investment, that led to expansion of their universities( largest student population in europe) BBC in Salford, commonwealth games leading to rich arabs buying man city, and the growth in public sector jobs under new labour. However, the money from well paid jobs doesnt run deep, manchester is also the 4th most deprived area in the uk. In my opinion it is very much a rent seeking economy, lacking creative or entrepreneurial dynamism (except asians in the retail sector)  compared to London or other world cities,  so you are unlikely to bump into somebody launching their own tech company or the like.

I agree there is no competition between which is best between London v’s northern cities. And someone launching their tech company will be drawn to world cities. 

It is the 90% of employees where the similiarity starts. Tesco’s, banks, DIY shops, coffee shops, public services.....they are not earning 10x as much, to justify the 10x house prices. 

Many need to be near their families but it’s the graduates getting pulled into London for professional jobs who are being duped  

Definitely more opportunities for careers in London but I work for a national financal firm. The city guys are rewarded handsomely for their commutes and expensive housing but only 25/30% on top of my wage. I do the same job remotely, I guess I need to work more to maintain profile....but not having a commute helps do that. 

End of the day it’s horses for courses...and if the house prices were the same then London wins. It’s the daft disproportionate prices where it loses. 

I’m near Leeds and declare a very Northern bias. It’s just from my experience there is no one up here in the firm tempted to move even for the 30% allowance.

But as before...both overvalued at the moment but it feels London more so. 

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On 02/11/2018 at 23:57, Trump Invective said:

Some wild predictions in this crystal ball gazing organisation. Does anyone seriously believe stuff like this any more? 

But if they had said prices will fall by 90% you would have believed that :) :) :)

On 03/11/2018 at 01:18, Drummer said:

ook at places like Didsbury in Manchester, ridiculous rises and no sign of slowing down either. In fact, same applies to alot of south Mancheste

True albeit from a much lower base which is exactly what savills suggest 

On 03/11/2018 at 14:15, bearishonhouses said:

2) in one period,  London house prices have been rising faster than Manchester, then
we should not be surprised if in the subsequent period, house prices rise faster in Manchester than London

Agree 100% 

On 03/11/2018 at 14:15, bearishonhouses said:

Clearly, to the extent that in the long-run there are structural factors affecting the economies of Manchester and London differently, we wold not expect the ratio of house prices in the two cities to stay constant, but arguably, London prices have got out of line relative to the rest of the country and some catching up of prices relative to London is to be expected.

 

Again agree 100% 

 

 

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  • 259 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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