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dougless

North-South house price divide 'to narrow'

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I'd love to agree it's nonsense, but it certainly doesn't feel like nonsense from what I'm seeing in the parts of the north I'm most familiar with (NW England and N Wales)

 

Ever since the start of the London/SE correction prices and confidence in my areas seem to heading up, up and away.

 

 

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Visited Edinburgh for the first time, very impressed, parts of it like London was 30 plus years ago......how it is so much more affordable when it is so much nicer is hard to fathom......surly it can't be the weather, the weather was great.😉

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Clearly a marketing piece that's more about what they want to happen rather than based on anything credible.

But... I really could see this happening.  I'm in the south, looking to move north and I suspect I'm not alone.  As more people become freelance with fewer geographic restrictions then people will naturally gravitate to the better value and possibly more pleasant areas.

Perhaps the industrial revolution's pull of people from the countryside to the towns and cities is about to go into reverse too - not only will people stop heading south but will also sprawl outwards in all directions from the cities.

It may be that the reality is that the crash is less pronounced in the north but, by whatever means, I really can see that the north-south divide will fade over time, just due to physical location being less important due to technology.

A call centre is a good example of the sort of business that is going virtual.  Instead of driving to an office block every day you just get sent a VOIP phone that you plug into your home broadband.  The company saves a load of money, staff can be based anywhere, no need to drive to work so less pollution... good all round really.

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6 minutes ago, Tes Tickle said:

A call centre is a good example of the sort of business that is going virtual.  Instead of driving to an office block every day you just get sent a VOIP phone that you plug into your home broadband.  The company saves a load of money, staff can be based anywhere, no need to drive to work so less pollution... good all round really.

Out of interest have you ever worked in a call centre? Not having a go, the theory of what you say works and should be how things go ideally. Sadly where I feel it fails is the reality of call centres workers being micro managed to within an inch of their life, and the constant stream of little team meetings, ad-hoc direction from supervisors and the mini sales celebration culture to incentivise employees cheaply that comes from being co-located. There is also the issue of data protection which can be controlled in a call centre building, but at home their really is nothing to stop rogue employees photographing personal information as it flashes up on their screen.

In short, I think our luddite management culture will prevent home working call centre agents on a large scale taking off for professional outfits.

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42 minutes ago, winkie said:

Visited Edinburgh for the first time, very impressed, parts of it like London was 30 plus years ago......how it is so much more affordable when it is so much nicer is hard to fathom......surly it can't be the weather, the weather was great.😉

400 miles Winkie and I know you know London - it’s a town compared to London 

I am a massive fan of building up our provinces to ease the strain on the South but for many the opportunities just aren’t there 

you got lucky with the weather average 5-10 colder than the south 

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To add, as for the North South divide... I often think it is families fleeing the south east that are supporting high prices in the north. I know BoMoD is a factor, but there are so many houses over £250,000 that that sell there has to be more in my mind. I've seen some great old houses, lots of space, lovely garden, but in need of completely gutting inside sell for £350,000+ and there's probably another £50,000 needed on top when you include fees and even modest renovation, bigger like loft conversion and extention lets guess at £80,000

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I can see this although this isn't good news even for homeowners, personally those rises are so small and will be below wage inflation (especially in the South East) although currently parts of the north west are selling very quickly still and nottingham area. For medium term reports like this and house prices will be xxxx by 2030 unless you look at real not nominal prices then the stats are meaningless. a 4.5% increase in london is still a fall in real terms. Wages here in cambridge tech sector have picked up a bit (especially for new jobs by around 4-5% i have seen since last year) where as assuming cambridge performs like the housing market in east anglia (and i suspect it will look more london like) then that 9.3% rise doesn't seem much when inflation could be 15%+ in that time.

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In my view the gap will be mostly driven by falling South prices.

From what I can see (your own mileage may vary) is that some London Z2 is suffering, esp below the river. Areas such as N1 also seem quite bubbly and prone to falls.

The effect surely will then ripple further out, why commute on the mainline when you can take a tube? Even at the average London salary those costs are significant.

If supply/demand drops to what it was 5 years ago, at a constant cost of borrowing, then prices might drop to what they were 5 years ago? We can only hope. That would simply reverse the period of mad gains, anything worth £250k in London then worth £400k+ today.

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7 minutes ago, GregBowman said:

400 miles Winkie and I know you know London - it’s a town compared to London 

I am a massive fan of building up our provinces to ease the strain on the South but for many the opportunities just aren’t there 

you got lucky with the weather average 5-10 colder than the south 

What makes a place a good place to live? .....many things, we make our own opportunities in life, why would  a colder place be better or necessarily have fewer opportunities?.....things are warming up so they say.....Canada is cold, so are the Scandinavian countries, family members live in Denmark, quality of life there is good.....not saying London is all bad just different.....we all are different, we all evolve, we all want different things.....when it no longer fits, time to look elsewhere.......price has never been a judge of what is better or worse...nice we still have the opportunity of being able to move, to try new places or live in new places.😉

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1 hour ago, nome said:

I'd love to agree it's nonsense, but it certainly doesn't feel like nonsense from what I'm seeing in the parts of the north I'm most familiar with (NW England and N Wales)

 

Ever since the start of the London/SE correction prices and confidence in my areas seem to heading up, up and away.

 

 

Have a look a tth transaction number.

In my popular area of the North - at least for home buyers, the average price piad has been stuck around 150k for ~3 years.

The numbers are showing a sign of a dip as MMR kicks in.

For the South, both MMR, the loss of large nubmer of high paying financial sector jobs and the high cost of commuting means the credit avaialbe to Mr n Mrs Southern is about 50% of the sum from 2005ish.

I both places, you are seeing the effect mostyly in the very low transaction numbers - low IR giving the housing a market a bit of a pass. However, when IR go up slihgly and as the number of probate pile up and the IO BTL willingly or unwillingly sell up ...

 

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1 hour ago, winkie said:

Visited Edinburgh for the first time, very impressed, parts of it like London was 30 plus years ago......how it is so much more affordable when it is so much nicer is hard to fathom......surly it can't be the weather, the weather was great.😉

White and gainfully employed ....... ???

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38 minutes ago, Tes Tickle said:

Clearly a marketing piece that's more about what they want to happen rather than based on anything credible.

But... I really could see this happening.  I'm in the south, looking to move north and I suspect I'm not alone.  As more people become freelance with fewer geographic restrictions then people will naturally gravitate to the better value and possibly more pleasant areas.

Perhaps the industrial revolution's pull of people from the countryside to the towns and cities is about to go into reverse too - not only will people stop heading south but will also sprawl outwards in all directions from the cities.

It may be that the reality is that the crash is less pronounced in the north but, by whatever means, I really can see that the north-south divide will fade over time, just due to physical location being less important due to technology.

A call centre is a good example of the sort of business that is going virtual.  Instead of driving to an office block every day you just get sent a VOIP phone that you plug into your home broadband.  The company saves a load of money, staff can be based anywhere, no need to drive to work so less pollution... good all round really.

Not even than.

A feeble make-work scheme, giving the employees something to do.

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1 minute ago, spyguy said:

White and gainfully employed ....... ???

No not at all, lots of black Carribbean, Ugandan Asians, Europeans.....London has always been a cosmopolitan place to live, that is not a bad thing, what we have now is an unbalanced society of all people, wealthy rich all sorts and the poor mixed......once a gainfully employed person could live from their local earnings.....now they require top-up help,benefits, credits and are there to work to provide rents and make profits for others......😉

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22 minutes ago, Save me from the madness! said:

Out of interest have you ever worked in a call centre? Not having a go, the theory of what you say works and should be how things go ideally. Sadly where I feel it fails is the reality of call centres workers being micro managed to within an inch of their life, and the constant stream of little team meetings, ad-hoc direction from supervisors and the mini sales celebration culture to incentivise employees cheaply that comes from being co-located. There is also the issue of data protection which can be controlled in a call centre building, but at home their really is nothing to stop rogue employees photographing personal information as it flashes up on their screen.

In short, I think our luddite management culture will prevent home working call centre agents on a large scale taking off for professional outfits.

I know what you mean, it was just meant as an illustration really.

But lots of monitoring would still be entirely possible with remote workers - the number of calls taken, call duration, minutes without calls, sales targets etc etc.  It would all be every bit as controlled as in a single building.  I'm pretty sure many companies are already doing this, or at least experimenting with it.  If one company does it (e.g. a utility company) then it will give a huge cost-saving advantage, meaning others would be obliged to follow to compete.

I know that in many offices "Working from home" has the inverted commas around it when spoken, as everyone knows it's basically having a day off while pretending to do stuff.  But, with more advanced tech, being at home could be little different from being there.

It feels like we're just on the edge of the tech and internet connections being up to doing this.  My OH has a laptop that she connects to our home wifi, from which she has full access to all the company's internal network, intranet etc just as though she's there, via a secure VPN connection.  She's basically as good as there.  The only thing they can't (yet) do is divert her desk phone extension to her mobile, I'd assume this is possible though.

For visiting space aliens, the overall concept of everyone getting into cars and trains to go to a building where they stare at a screen and talk into a phone must all seem very weird.  In the old days we needed the office for the phone line, meetings, typists and internal mail.  As everything is now electronic it all seems quite odd that we're all still behaving like it's the 1950s.

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I do understand the comments about the North, West and East (in fact anywhere other than London and the Home counties) looking more attractive price wise but there are a few things to consider.  So much of our economy is based on consumption and many of the arguments about why the regions will go up whilst London declines still need that consumption to prosper.  For example the Midlands have benefited from a growth in low wage distribution centres like amazon's in Rugely. If we consume less and travel less it will impact on employment and further depress our extremely weak economy.  I have to agree with spyguy's comment that it looks like a work creation piece and is based on much wishful thinking.

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25 minutes ago, Tes Tickle said:

I know what you mean, it was just meant as an illustration really.

But lots of monitoring would still be entirely possible with remote workers - the number of calls taken, call duration, minutes without calls, sales targets etc etc.  It would all be every bit as controlled as in a single building.  I'm pretty sure many companies are already doing this, or at least experimenting with it.  If one company does it (e.g. a utility company) then it will give a huge cost-saving advantage, meaning others would be obliged to follow to compete.

I know that in many offices "Working from home" has the inverted commas around it when spoken, as everyone knows it's basically having a day off while pretending to do stuff.  But, with more advanced tech, being at home could be little different from being there.

It feels like we're just on the edge of the tech and internet connections being up to doing this.  My OH has a laptop that she connects to our home wifi, from which she has full access to all the company's internal network, intranet etc just as though she's there, via a secure VPN connection.  She's basically as good as there.  The only thing they can't (yet) do is divert her desk phone extension to her mobile, I'd assume this is possible though.

For visiting space aliens, the overall concept of everyone getting into cars and trains to go to a building where they stare at a screen and talk into a phone must all seem very weird.  In the old days we needed the office for the phone line, meetings, typists and internal mail.  As everything is now electronic it all seems quite odd that we're all still behaving like it's the 1950s.

And even more, when someone works with others across multiple time zones being "in the office" becomes even less critical.

Some of us work in the office because - on balance - a large proportion of our team mates are in the same time zone. But as the teams and the projects morph and change the teams go international quite quickly. And this is happening faster and faster as more and more of use get used to video-conferenced meetings, IM, flowdock and the significantly improved work-management systems.

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The price falls will ripple out in time.

HTB and locally affordable properties still sell.  So my guess is that up North HTB and local wages can still drive up prices when a few London emigrants are added to the mix.  

Prices are still high in London obv so even cashing in at a 20% discount will allow you to move to the North and drive prices up there....until it does not.

Usually my area (Norfolk) is the last to fall but this time i think it may before the Manchesters/liverpool's/Leeds etc as they have average wages of 25k whilst ours is lesser yet our house prices are much more expensive.  This is the beauty of HTB as it does little in London but is nitro in the regions where cheaper land can be turned into government subsidised gold.

 

 

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1 hour ago, Tes Tickle said:

I know what you mean, it was just meant as an illustration really.

But lots of monitoring would still be entirely possible with remote workers - the number of calls taken, call duration, minutes without calls, sales targets etc etc.  It would all be every bit as controlled as in a single building.  I'm pretty sure many companies are already doing this, or at least experimenting with it.  If one company does it (e.g. a utility company) then it will give a huge cost-saving advantage, meaning others would be obliged to follow to compete.

I know that in many offices "Working from home" has the inverted commas around it when spoken, as everyone knows it's basically having a day off while pretending to do stuff.  But, with more advanced tech, being at home could be little different from being there.

It feels like we're just on the edge of the tech and internet connections being up to doing this.  My OH has a laptop that she connects to our home wifi, from which she has full access to all the company's internal network, intranet etc just as though she's there, via a secure VPN connection.  She's basically as good as there.  The only thing they can't (yet) do is divert her desk phone extension to her mobile, I'd assume this is possible though.

For visiting space aliens, the overall concept of everyone getting into cars and trains to go to a building where they stare at a screen and talk into a phone must all seem very weird.  In the old days we needed the office for the phone line, meetings, typists and internal mail.  As everything is now electronic it all seems quite odd that we're all still behaving like it's the 1950s.

i could do this 20+ years ago. the technology is even older. years ago the quickest way was to remote desktop to a machine in the physical office and just get remote screen updates as the data used was very small a 56k connection was good enough.  now with broadband there is no reason to go to a work place if all you do is sit at a desk anyway.  i did most tech support without having to even get up. 

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1 hour ago, Save me from the madness! said:

Out of interest have you ever worked in a call centre? Not having a go, the theory of what you say works and should be how things go ideally. Sadly where I feel it fails is the reality of call centres workers being micro managed to within an inch of their life, and the constant stream of little team meetings, ad-hoc direction from supervisors and the mini sales celebration culture to incentivise employees cheaply that comes from being co-located. There is also the issue of data protection which can be controlled in a call centre building, but at home their really is nothing to stop rogue employees photographing personal information as it flashes up on their screen.

In short, I think our luddite management culture will prevent home working call centre agents on a large scale taking off for professional outfits.

 

Yep. I work in I.T. infrastructure design. We spend a lot of time writing high level designs etc., all of which can be done from home via Secure VPN on whole disk encrypted laptops. However, management frown upon it. Their reasoning? They want to encourage an "innovative culture of collaboration", which of course requires us all to be co-located.

Obviously, this is a crock, just to cover up their micro management tendencies. If I'm writing a detailed design document, the last thing I want is people rocking up at my desk wanting be "innovative". As a result, people are leaving and we are finding hard to recruit and retain staff.

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I look forward to seeing Saville's modelling methodology published on a peer reviewed economics journal, with due respect to appropriate separation of calibration and validation data, naturally.

Not holding my breath.

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1 hour ago, winkie said:

No not at all, lots of black Carribbean, Ugandan Asians, Europeans.....London has always been a cosmopolitan place to live, that is not a bad thing, what we have now is an unbalanced society of all people, wealthy rich all sorts and the poor mixed......once a gainfully employed person could live from their local earnings.....now they require top-up help,benefits, credits and are there to work to provide rents and make profits for others......😉

It has not always been as cosmopolitan as now (not saying it is bad nor good for that matter) look at photos of the Blitz, it is 99% white.

 

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8 minutes ago, iamnumerate said:

It has not always been as cosmopolitan as now (not saying it is bad nor good for that matter) look at photos of the Blitz, it is 99% white.

 

I am talking since the 1950s 1960s and 1970s......different and better times imo, great to be a child, children were valued and invested in then.;)

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  • 261 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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