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Freki

Hunkering down during the next recession

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Hi everyone,

I have recently started the process of looking for a new job and between my bearish nature and the current gradual collapse of the stock market, I am wondering if I won't be first in line when it comes down to cull the number of workers in companies.

I was working in post war zones during the last downturn and did not really follow how bad things were in developed economies and the UK in particular.

My question is: Who are the first in line ?

  • Sector
  • Contract type
  • Position in the supply chain
  • Position in the company's hierarchy

The only guess with a certain level of certainty is contractors should be the first.

Are tech jobs going to suffer (it's the future! yadda yadda)?

Edited by Freki

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Whatever the economy people still need to eat and take medication so food and medicine might be a safe bet. The oil price is creeping back up if that's of interest and public works like HS2.

I don't know if FT100 really is a good guide to recession as top level financial stuff seems to bear little resemblance to the economy on the ground to me, especially with QE and ZIRP.

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2 hours ago, Freki said:

Hi everyone,

I have recently started the process of looking for a new job and between my bearish nature and the current gradual collapse of the stock market, I am wondering if I won't be first in line when it comes down to cull the number of workers in companies.

I was working in post war zones during the last downturn and did not really follow how bad things were in developed economies and the UK in particular.

My question is: Who are the first in line ?

  • Sector
  • Contract type
  • Position in the supply chain
  • Position in the company's hierarchy

The only guess with a certain level of certainty is contractors should be the first.

Are tech jobs going to suffer (it's the future! yadda yadda)?

contractor here, yup, first up against the wall will be us

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I'm starting the NHS in November- support function, I've been wondering the same. Just walked out today a week early, always a new beginning. I'd feel with tech it depends on the company structure 

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3 hours ago, nightowl said:

Whatever the economy people still need to eat and take medication so food and medicine might be a safe bet. The oil price is creeping back up if that's of interest and public works like HS2.

I don't know if FT100 really is a good guide to recession as top level financial stuff seems to bear little resemblance to the economy on the ground to me, especially with QE and ZIRP.

Utilities too: energy, water.

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4 hours ago, Freki said:

Hi everyone,

I have recently started the process of looking for a new job and between my bearish nature and the current gradual collapse of the stock market, I am wondering if I won't be first in line when it comes down to cull the number of workers in companies.

I was working in post war zones during the last downturn and did not really follow how bad things were in developed economies and the UK in particular.

My question is: Who are the first in line ?

  • Sector
  • Contract type
  • Position in the supply chain
  • Position in the company's hierarchy

The only guess with a certain level of certainty is contractors should be the first.

Are tech jobs going to suffer (it's the future! yadda yadda)?

Been around a bit (57 years old) truth is you can't second guess it but my personal experience

Contractors not always first to go depends on business (I was the second last contractor out of an insurance company behind 400 staff)

Your personal network is your strength

UK massively behind in automation and digitisation in general, massive shortages of web, infrastructure and very senior project Directors. The latter because of the boomer boom being over, decent project Directors are like rocking horse poo, so can't see tech being overly affected.

Learn to sell as in yourself - There is a shortage of decent skilled people who's linked in stacks up make sure yours does and you look like you can do the business - basics I know but you would be surprised how many people I see who think they should be paid £800+ and have the social skills of a fruitbat

 

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I'm at a big multinational but our numbers aren't great this year. Hire freeze across the whole (huge) place. No backfilling. 

Contractors haven't been affected but last time we culled was for people missing sales targets. You live by the target, you die by the target. 

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45 minutes ago, GregBowman said:

UK massively behind in automation and digitisation in general, massive shortages of web, infrastructure and very senior project Directors. The latter because of the boomer boom being over, decent project Directors are like rocking horse poo, so can't see tech being overly affected.

Learn to sell as in yourself - There is a shortage of decent skilled people who's linked in stacks up make sure yours does and you look like you can do the business - basics I know but you would be surprised how many people I see who think they should be paid £800+ and have the social skills of a fruitbat

 

Even at krill level it's hard recruiting. Anyone with 2 braincells to rub together progresses fast. Constantly looking for second jobbers, now dipping into first jobbers. Foreign workers are staying away. 

Bang on about networking. Have a narrative that people can click into emotionally. 

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32 minutes ago, PeanutButter said:

Even at krill level it's hard recruiting. Anyone with 2 braincells to rub together progresses fast. Constantly looking for second jobbers, now dipping into first jobbers. Foreign workers are staying away. 

Bang on about networking. Have a narrative that people can click into emotionally. 

Exactly - my narrative which is a great phrase by the way  is - it will work eventually, probably with more money and more time than you expect. That can be a technology transition project, sales team or business turnaround. Very few people are good consistently at holding other people's feet to the  fire over extended periods whilst simultaneously motivating them and ensuring they feel valued. 

Noone ever says 'you know what I have had a bit too much of that leadership I know where I am going stuff !!'

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Thanks for your detailed post @GregBowman

So if I am posting this is for 2 reasons:

1) there are a few threads about navigating your financial assets through the market tides, but little about where to be (civil servants comes in mind) to shelter yourself if the country took the direction of a 20% unemployment level

2) yes personally I am interrogating my current position

One point I really like is the point about networking. This basically, you restart at zero when you change company. Little chance your boss will go out of his way to keep the new recruit that is less than 6 months old.

Second point from @nightowl about market crash and real economy. I am with you. Europe's job market did not really feel it until a year later, so the contamination process is not instant. Just cogs are slowing gradually down until they stand still.

About my situation, recruiters really seem to like my CV, and it is being sent to very different companies. PWC, consultancy companies, Sainsbury's ...

  • The consultancy company feels like one of the first one which will likely lose contracts with big players and hence make me unemployed quickly.
  • Sainsbury's it is to work with the food branch. Feels like a great opportunity to feel sheltered.
  • PWC I have no idea how quick a company like that can sack people.

Like I said, I am interested in other people's strategies on the different sector, seniority, job competence ...

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Having good social skills a massive benefit, being able to talk to and be interest in all kinds of people from different backgrounds, classes and education a great skill to have, selling to them what they didn't think they needed even better....in their shoes, on their level......nobody can be good at everything......some can add up but can't spell, some can read but can't write, some like people, some don't.;)

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1 minute ago, Freki said:

Thanks for your detailed post @GregBowman

So if I am posting this is for 2 reasons:

1) there are a few threads about navigating your financial assets through the market tides, but little about where to be (civil servants comes in mind) to shelter yourself if the country took the direction of a 20% unemployment level

2) yes personally I am interrogating my current position

One point I really like is the point about networking. This basically, you restart at zero when you change company. Little chance your boss will go out of his way to keep the new recruit that is less than 6 months old.

Second point from @nightowl about market crash and real economy. I am with you. Europe's job market did not really feel it until a year later, so the contamination process is not instant. Just cogs are slowing gradually down until they stand still.

About my situation, recruiters really seem to like my CV, and it is being sent to very different companies. PWC, consultancy companies, Sainsbury's ...

  • The consultancy company feels like one of the first one which will likely lose contracts with big players and hence make me unemployed quickly.
  • Sainsbury's it is to work with the food branch. Feels like a great opportunity to feel sheltered.
  • PWC I have no idea how quick a company like that can sack people.

Like I said, I am interested in other people's strategies on the different sector, seniority, job competence ...

Thanks. Look at another way your job is networking not doing the role your paid for. I don't quite understand the seniority piece. in tighter times tow areas prevail the very top who own things - C suite and people who can do stuff. the middle goes.

Out of the three get PWC on your CV and worry about anything else after, I am still playing the IBM card thirty years after the event !

PWC is a massive canvass to network internally in - generally those guys prosper in a down turn but try to ensure your in a client facing role

Problem with Sainsbury's it's a silo in low margin sector - where's the fun?

Small consultancy OK but ahead of PWC probably no

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How can/will there be another recession? 

An economic crash far bigger than any normal recession was already nullified by firing up the printing presses and allowing everyone to keep on spending as long as they're willing to become debt slaves (which they apparently are).

With another £750bn already locked and loaded and ready to be printed off at the slightest hint of trouble I honestly can't see how we can have any form of economic downturn again, other than the complete self destruction of the whole fiat money, debt based economic system... and I doubt any of us will be around long enough to actually see that happen.

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3 minutes ago, Bruce Banner said:

Contrary to what many people believe, the best way of keeping your job in a downturn is to run your own business.  

Very true....many couldn't do it, couldn't cope with uncertainty of not having a regular amount credited to their account each month, couldn't put the necessary work/hours in....not enough energy, commitment, persistence or motivation to make a success of it.....the thought might be there but the ability is not....;)

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5 minutes ago, winkie said:

Very true....many couldn't do it, couldn't cope with uncertainty of not having a regular amount credited to their account each month, couldn't put the necessary work/hours in....not enough energy, commitment, persistence or motivation to make a success of it.....the thought might be there but the ability is not....;)

Yes, you need to know what you're doing, but if you do and you put in the necessary effort, the last person you're likely to make redundant in a downturn is yourself. 

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I think it will be interesting what happens to tech contractors if there is a recession. As a lot more people have become contractors (re synthetic self employed), then I think its not like it used to be, where a company had 10% as contractors and they went first. Now its more like 60% of the work force. Maybe the budget on Monday might help shed some light on this. 

The Mrs works in the care sector. wages are poor, but that job is never going away. On the other hand, i would feel very uncertain if I worked in retail. Also depends on the election outcome, doesnt it. Guess there might be lots of pointless public sector jobs if Labour get in. On the other hand, you could become one of those bailiffs (maybe even on TV). Sure there will be work for you repossessing everything. Then a book deal, and own spin off blog?

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Lost my job last week, feels like 2008 pre crash to me. My contract ended the same way 2008 (I am working in the same place again lol). work trickled down from manic to 1 day every other week. This work ranges from feasibility, flooding models, to sites modelled in 3D (lots of lakes, mounds, and paths) for construction. So either its far in the future investment or on site being built. Last time the investors for new projects just vanished .... here we go again :D.

Our minimum out goings as a couple in 2008 was in the region of £1000 a month. Now the flat is paid off its just £500.

We are fully hunkered down, if this is the one.
 

Edited by pathfinder

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2 hours ago, nome said:

How can/will there be another recession? 

An economic crash far bigger than any normal recession was already nullified by firing up the printing presses and allowing everyone to keep on spending as long as they're willing to become debt slaves (which they apparently are).

I meet allot of people and debt is not always a choice.. Everyone needs somewhere to live.. What choice do you have other than to pay out.. 

choice 1) pay parasitic landlord

choice 2) live on street

we are slaves but not by choice.. unless you are talking about a revolution.. in our case that would be a Corbyn Government.. But the media are trying as hard as they can to make sure we don’t go down that path and retain the status quo 

Edited by macca13

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55 minutes ago, pathfinder said:

Lost my job last week, feels like 2008 pre crash to me. My contract ended the same way 2008 (I am working in the same place again lol). work trickled down from manic to 1 day every other week. This work ranges from feasibility, flooding models, to sites modelled in 3D (lots of lakes, mounds, and paths) for construction. So either its far in the future investment or on site being built. Last time the investors for new projects just vanished .... here we go again :D.

Our minimum out goings as a couple in 2008 was in the region of £1000 a month. Now the flat is paid off its just £500.

We are fully hunkered down, if this is the one.
 

....both good and bad, but well done, where there is a will there is a way.....should start a thread.... How much minimum needed to live on a month if no rent or mortgage to pay?....;)

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5 hours ago, kirstieb said:

I'm starting the NHS in November- support function, I've been wondering the same. Just walked out today a week early, always a new beginning. I'd feel with tech it depends on the company structure 

Admin people are never made redundant in the NHS.  IT gets outsourced though.

5 hours ago, GregBowman said:

...but you would be surprised how many people I see who think they should be paid £800+ and have the social skills of a fruitbat

The Register: Think your CV is crap? Your interview skills are worse

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20 hours ago, winkie said:

....both good and bad, but well done, where there is a will there is a way.....should start a thread.... How much minimum needed to live on a month if no rent or mortgage to pay?....;)

Actually about ... £500.

£750 to £1k and you can live comfortably (but no flash cars/holidays).

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I would say 800 quid per month ,  in a small property to live okish, with sensible but not punitive budgeting, in uk. Two hundred quid for bills and council tax, then 150 a week everything else. 

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  • 142 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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