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Mikhail Liebenstein

Where is your bottom? (Stock Market indexes that is)

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Here are my predictions for 2019/20:

^FTSE 100 at 4970 by February 2020

^DJIA at 16,996 by January 2020

^IXIC - NASDAQ Composite at 4969 by Sept 2019

 

On the flip side, here are some things that may rise:

Currency: GBP/USD at $1.42 by April 2019  (post customs deal)

Metals: Gold at 1697 an Ounce by July 2019

Crypto: $BTC at $8,670 by Feb 2019, $XRP at $1.45 by Feb 2019 and $XBI at $1.02 by March 2019

 

 

 

 

 

Edited by Mikhail Liebenstein

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4 minutes ago, Si1 said:

I have none. I have a diversified spread instead to cushion any impacts.

Fair enough, that is the safe, low risk method. Won’t result in the biggest gains, but should be steady gains over time. 

I’ve just gone for the Hail Mary approach as in American Football! Was 100% stocks, now just cash or safe bonds.As long as the market falls, and I can eventually buy back, then i’m Cool.

 

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2 hours ago, Mikhail Liebenstein said:

Here are my predictions for 2019/20:

^FTSE 100 at 4970 by February 2020

^DJIA at 16,996 by January 2020

^IXIC - NASDAQ Composite at 4969 by Sept 2019

 

On the flip side, here are some things that may rise:

Currency: GBP/USD at $1.42 by April 2019  (post customs deal)

Metals: Gold at 1697 an Ounce by July 2019

Crypto: $BTC at $8,670 by Feb 2019, $XRP at $1.45 by Feb 2019 and $XBI at $1.02 by March 2019

 

 

 

 

 

This is the sort of thread that's been needed , if this happened then would house prices crash as much?What would those in charge do ?

Would there be Civil unrest like Mad Max. I have just looked at my Hargreaves Lansdown account and am down about 7K since spring.I have cash to invest in something but what? A new car or house improvements or Gold? I might get a new pushbike fancy a Cannondale System 6 or Cervelo S5 about 8k should get one. 

I was out on my pushbike at the weekend and in Anstey near Leicester they are advertising 3 bed detached for £325k that to me isludicrous and shouts out peak. I am tempted to go and do a viewing some time soon and am sure id be told how they are selling like hotcakes.

 

 

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1 hour ago, hughjass said:

 

This is the sort of thread that's been needed , if this happened then would house prices crash as much?What would those in charge do ?

Would there be Civil unrest like Mad Max. I have just looked at my Hargreaves Lansdown account and am down about 7K since spring.I have cash to invest in something but what? A new car or house improvements or Gold? I might get a new pushbike fancy a Cannondale System 6 or Cervelo S5 about 8k should get one. 

I was out on my pushbike at the weekend and in Anstey near Leicester they are advertising 3 bed detached for £325k that to me isludicrous and shouts out peak. I am tempted to go and do a viewing some time soon and am sure id be told how they are selling like hotcakes.

 

 

9

Good question!

My gut feeling is that we are seeing the potential for a proper inflationary uptick. And that isn't  a bad thing btw as I think it reflects wage depression and consumption depression ending.

We seem to have reached certain limits in terms of how much workers will be exploited (so wages rising more now), and part of the policy response to this and indeed booming stocks has been to push up Interest Rates.

The impact of higher rates could of course push down house prices as well as stocks. But I do get the feeling once stocks and house prices start to fall and vested interests start squealing that that will be the queue to lower interest rates again.

Edited by Mikhail Liebenstein

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I get the point about inflation, when the Brexit result came in I noted on a spreadsheet the price of fuel and certain food staples etc. Petrol was £1.10 a litre its now around £1.30 Council tax has gone up by about 11% gas and electric rise twice a year , Virgin , Bt and sky increase twice a year yet the public sector has had 2 % rises since the Brexit vote. If Corbyn gets in hed allow a £10 living wage which would be stupid in my book. Are Carney and co happy to see this debasement of our currency. I was a teenager in the 70s and cant remember how we coped with the inflation, perhaps I am one of the few that are bothered even though I own my home have reserves and a few other assets.

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On 23/10/2018 at 15:44, Mikhail Liebenstein said:

^FTSE 100 at 4970 by February 2020

Not a chance

22 hours ago, hughjass said:

This is the sort of thread that's been needed , if this happened then would house prices crash as much?What would those in charge do ?

Why is this thread needed it is pure wishful thinking and speculation

22 hours ago, hughjass said:

Would there be Civil unrest like Mad Max. I have just looked at my Hargreaves Lansdown account and am down about 7K since spring.I have cash to invest in something but what? A new car or house improvements or Gold? I might get a new pushbike fancy a Cannondale System 6 or Cervelo S5 about 8k should get one. 

No there would not be civil unrest there have historically been many times when shares crashed with no civil unrest - people get up- go to work- carry on as normal 

You own account has gone down are you rioting on the streets - of course not :) 

Vintage cars are a good investment if you know what you are doing as they have no tax levied when you sell on at a profit

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Markets down again today.

I do think we are going to get a tug of war between the bulls and bears, but with the bears gradually gaining the upper hand.

It is a bit like a slowed down version of the Bitcoin crash or indeed any past market crash. Moments that look like recovery, interspersed with larger falls. The process will take at least 12 months.

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4 hours ago, happyguy said:

Not a chance

Why is this thread needed it is pure wishful thinking and speculation

No there would not be civil unrest there have historically been many times when shares crashed with no civil unrest - people get up- go to work- carry on as normal 

You own account has gone down are you rioting on the streets - of course not :)

Vintage cars are a good investment if you know what you are doing as they have no tax levied when you sell on at a profit

Its an opinion not wishful thinking, I like to think of myself as a realist theres too many people living beyond their means and a downturn would  leave them in  negative equity or repossession.   Could a situation similar to Greece when they had to have a bailout a few years ago happen? A n deal Brexit leads to the IMF stepping in and an emergency budget with say massive increases in Taxes and also huge cuts in spending?

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On ‎23‎/‎10‎/‎2018 at 15:44, Mikhail Liebenstein said:

Here are my predictions for 2019/20:

^FTSE 100 at 4970 by February 2020

I agree that's "about time for a recession" after a long bull market since 2009. 

However, at today dividend yield on the FTSE All Share is 4.13%. That to me looks like a good time to buy - if you look back to 2007 it was 2.75% and back to 1999 it was 2.12%.  That suggests to me that even if UK markets take a temporary fall it won't be far and in the long term they are still a good investment at their current prices.

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11 hours ago, scottbeard said:

I agree that's "about time for a recession" after a long bull market since 2009. 

However, at today dividend yield on the FTSE All Share is 4.13%. That to me looks like a good time to buy - if you look back to 2007 it was 2.75% and back to 1999 it was 2.12%.  That suggests to me that even if UK markets take a temporary fall it won't be far and in the long term they are still a good investment at their current prices.

I don't disagree that the FTSE looks ok, but the rest of the Global Markets are crazy. And when Wall Street sneezes etc....

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On 24/10/2018 at 17:03, happyguy said:

Not a chance

Why is this thread needed it is pure wishful thinking and speculation

No there would not be civil unrest there have historically been many times when shares crashed with no civil unrest - people get up- go to work- carry on as normal 

You own account has gone down are you rioting on the streets - of course not :)

Vintage cars are a good investment if you know what you are doing as they have no tax levied when you sell on at a profit

If the authorities weren't worried about riots , interest rates wouldn't still be < 1.5% and their shills wouldn't be in the press every week telling us all what a disaster it would be for the country if they go above 2%..............

Edited by Agentimmo

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21 hours ago, scottbeard said:

I agree that's "about time for a recession" after a long bull market since 2009. 

However, at today dividend yield on the FTSE All Share is 4.13%. That to me looks like a good time to buy - if you look back to 2007 it was 2.75% and back to 1999 it was 2.12%.  That suggests to me that even if UK markets take a temporary fall it won't be far and in the long term they are still a good investment at their current prices.

Yes. UK equities seem a good contrarian position at the moment. I think the interesting question is the relative performance of FTSE 100 and 250.

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I'm no expert, but we're due something, 10 years is a long time.

The question is has everything been propped up for too long and does that make a correction a much bigger shock.

Personally I think it depends on what central banks do or are forced to do. The latter will be a crunch.

The only option they have is more qe, but they seem reluctant to do this and are winding off existing spend.

In summary nothing much will change.

No gains, but overall no significant losses. 

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23 hours ago, scottbeard said:

I agree that's "about time for a recession" after a long bull market since 2009. 

However, at today dividend yield on the FTSE All Share is 4.13%. That to me looks like a good time to buy - if you look back to 2007 it was 2.75% and back to 1999 it was 2.12%.  That suggests to me that even if UK markets take a temporary fall it won't be far and in the long term they are still a good investment at their current prices.

 

11 hours ago, Mikhail Liebenstein said:

I don't disagree that the FTSE looks ok, but the rest of the Global Markets are crazy. And when Wall Street sneezes etc....

But the UK economy isn't OK! Unless Hammond unveils a substantial stimulus program in his Halloween budget the UK economy will be in recession next year with domestic earnings + divdends depressed across the board. That might not impact the outward facing FTSE 100 so much but the ongoing hpc's in China, Canada, Oz and emerging markets will do, and profoundly. Add to that the prospect of a credit-led US slowdown and even an oil/energy crisis in 2019 and I don't see any reason for getting back into the market.

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21 minutes ago, zugzwang said:

But the UK economy isn't OK! Unless Hammond unveils a substantial stimulus program in his Halloween budget the UK economy will be in recession next year with domestic earnings + divdends depressed across the board. That might not impact the outward facing FTSE 100 so much but the ongoing hpc's in China, Canada, Oz and emerging markets will do, and profoundly. Add to that the prospect of a credit-led US slowdown and even an oil/energy crisis in 2019 and I don't see any reason for getting back into the market.

Absolutely - the entire global economy is not OK.  A global recession is coming.  And doubtless the dividends will get cut back (a bit) and the  FTSE will fall (a bit) as per the "wall street sneezes" above.  But I guess my point is more that as we head into this recession the FTSE is actually around fair value or even somewhat undervalued, VERY different to 1999 or 2007, whereas the US indices for example look way overvalued (very similar to 1999 or 2007).  In other words, US stocks I'd expect to fall a LOT in this recession, FTSE not so much.

Now this doesn't mean it's a good time to buy into the FTSE - personally it's something i'll be more looking to do next year - but equally I'm not selling either, because i'm holding equities mainly for retirement, and from this current pricing level the 20 year outlook seems fine, and I'm not sure selling everything and re-buying next year would gain anything, especially when you consider the transaction costs and that market timing is a bit of a fool's game anyway.

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5 hours ago, scottbeard said:

Now this doesn't mean it's a good time to buy into the FTSE - personally it's something i'll be more looking to do next year - but equally I'm not selling either, because i'm holding equities mainly for retirement, and from this current pricing level the 20 year outlook seems fine, and I'm not sure selling everything and re-buying next year would gain anything, especially when you consider the transaction costs and that market timing is a bit of a fool's game anyway.

I’d agree. 

We have had a bit of a rebound on BARC.L, but yes I can see a drift down overall, but as suggested less than for the US.

In the US the real big issue is the NASDAQ.

It is insane!

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The one thing about this market is getting out near the top and trying to second guess the market bottom (hence the title).

As mentioned I ditched all of my equity funds just before the crash - some got hit a bit on delayed sells, others cleared in time, some gained on the subsequent rebound. But bottom line, I escaped with just 6% off peak.

The key thing is timing re-entry. Avoiding Bull traps and ultimately the Bear traps when they happen.

The one good thing is that with £500k in cash, and 12 years before I can touch it, I can take one more big punt on equities (at the bottom) and probably undo most of the damage Hammond is planning to retirement funds by taxing contributions.

 

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2 hours ago, Mikhail Liebenstein said:

The one thing about this market is getting out near the top and trying to second guess the market bottom (hence the title).

As mentioned I ditched all of my equity funds just before the crash - some got hit a bit on delayed sells, others cleared in time, some gained on the subsequent rebound. But bottom line, I escaped with just 6% off peak.

The key thing is timing re-entry. Avoiding Bull traps and ultimately the Bear traps when they happen.

The one good thing is that with £500k in cash, and 12 years before I can touch it, I can take one more big punt on equities (at the bottom) and probably undo most of the damage Hammond is planning to retirement funds by taxing contributions.

 

I have had the week from hell at work, compounded by tonights rail journey home from Manchester to near Preston, which went like this:

16:04 - 2 carriages instead of 4; too full to get on

16:34 - Cancelled

17:-04 - turned up at 17:30, got me back to my destination train station at 18:15. Total of 2h 15 minutes (got to the station at 4pm) to go ~30 miles, all due to chronic underinvestment in road and rail infrastructure (driving into Manchester is pointless - it takes about an hour to get in or out of the centre, due to congestion)

Point is, the merest whiff of anything in the budget that screws me over tax-wise or pension-wise and I'll be quitting work, cutting all non-essential expenditure to the bone and kicking back for a few years living off my savings. Life is too short for this s**t.

Edited by dpg50000

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19 hours ago, dpg50000 said:

Point is, the merest whiff of anything in the budget that screws me over tax-wise or pension-wise and I'll be quitting work, cutting all non-essential expenditure to the bone and kicking back for a few years living off my savings. Life is too short for this s**t.

I did this 12 years ago and had nearly 8 years living off savings before my state pension kicked in.  I just couldn't stand the aggro of work and that was without a terrible commute.  I live very simply and much prefer life without all that stress.  It seems you can either have time or money and I much prefer time.  It's surprising how much you can save when you don't work too............no work clothes/fares etc and time to cook from scratch.  I think my health benefitted enormously and I no longer feel depressed.  If you have a job you love that's different but I never achieved that luxury.

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2 hours ago, janch said:

  If you have a job you love that's different but I never achieved that luxury.

That the thing that does work for me, and means I can bring a big difference in my attitude to work. I have always managed to position myself in interesting and in demand parts of the market, and have thus always been paid very well which is an additional benefit to enjoying the job. I would suggest that does makes working and the overall rat race much easier. 

But there is a downside - expenses grow to fill the cash available. Yes, I do save, but have also accumulated expensive trappings /costs like Private School Fees, a relatively big mortgage and a nanny to pickup the kids on top of luxury holidays. Indeed my 7 year old has taken to emotionally blackmailing my wife over the subject of holidays, which then gets pushed into me

I’d happily cut back on that, but I think there is pressure from school with kids whose parents have private helicopters, Sunseeker Yachts and large Mansions etc

It is quite seriously disturbing in my opinion, but is considered normal by my wife. But I did go to a state school, whilst she was privately educated.

 

 

 

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  • 261 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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