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AdamoMucci

Lib Dems will be king makers

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30 minutes ago, Drummer said:

Long way to go and campaigning has not got going.

Many a result could happen. Corbyn could get a majority Gov if he plays his cards right.

 

OMFG just ruin it why dont you!

 

*IF* that were the result..............................

 

........................................ who they gunna choose.

 

Its an interesting question given their experiences previously! Clearly they will not go into coalition with anybody, and they have a problem supporting the Cons due to the Brexit contingent, but can they support a Corbyn/SNP government?

We are looking at mayhem on these sorts of numbers!

 

Edited by AdamoMucci

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52 minutes ago, Byron said:

There is not going to be a GE until 2022

Hmmmm Ladbrokes thinks its almost the same probability in 2019 as 2022. Given conservative politicians cannot consider country above party I would say 2022 is unlikely.

 

edit : I should have said wallet, not party. If you think this fiasco is about anything other than that then you are mistaken.

Edited by Chunketh

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The conservative party would most likely change leader before risking an election as their overriding logic is to  remain in power no matter what chaos is ongoing. 

Their best election tactic is to hang in there and hope labour mess up.

I wouldn't be surprised if the next parliament in hung again. In the last 8 years we've had only 2 years of a (slender) majority government. Post march 2019 might made the judgement easier.

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1 hour ago, Trump Invective said:

Hopefully the cons do stay in, just keep ruining everything. Then the blame cant be placed anywhere else. As you were, cons.

Forty years of hurt. It's impossible to believe the British will vote for another five!

Mind you, I said the same thing in 2017.  :rolleyes:

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4 hours ago, nightowl said:

I wouldn't be surprised if the next parliament in hung again. In the last 8 years we've had only 2 years of a (slender) majority government. Post march 2019 might made the judgement easier.

I wouldn't be surprised if EVERY parliament is hung until such time as Scotland (inevitably) leaves the UK.

However, I also can't see the Conservatives CHOOSING to hold an election in 2019 - it will only happen if forced upon them, or if Labour make a massive slip-up.

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48 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

If SNP choose Cons who gives a toss about Lib Dems?

Seems unlikely as Cons are the most unionist party in GB. Maybe if Cons agreed to have another independence referendum.

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14 hours ago, AdamoMucci said:

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

Current estimate is Cons 300 seats, Lab 267 seats, SNP 44 seats, Lib Dems 17 seats.

323 is the target in practice.

Who they going to choose?????????????????

 

Um, Con + LibDem is still a minority govt.  SNP isn't going in with anybody so looks like no viable coalition possible on these results.

2nd election required on this result.

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I think the odds of a premature GE depend on whether Back Bench Tories can successfully rouse the Party into declaring May to be unsuitable as Party Leader. If that occurs I can see another GE with Reese-Mogg running as the Tory Leader and winning the GE. I think the Media have severely underestimated the loss of followers on the Labour side due to the Anti-Semitism claims as well as various other public blunders. Most people I know don't like the Tories but they are really growing to despise Labour due to the claims I mentioned and the move farther Left. Growing up in the North East everyone I knew was Labour, now I'd say it's about half which is a huge change given this area has been a stronghold for decades. They are losing their core base and will continue to do so unless they change course.

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43 minutes ago, Renewed Investor said:

 They are losing their core base and will continue to do so unless they change course. 

But is that core base sufficiently big enough to win them a majority or even a minority government at all?   I suspect that core base dwindled and fragmented in the 1970s and despite Nu Labour being flawed at least recognized this and did re-expand their voter base.  The Conservatives will no doubt find there core voter base of the non-metropolitan SE no longer dependable as demographics kicks in.

Two split parties becoming 4, or two diminished parties with a new 3rd with all sorts of weird coalitions with minors maybe the future?

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4 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

If SNP choose Cons who gives a toss about Lib Dems?

 

Not sure if serious

 

 

3 hours ago, ElPapasito said:

Um, Con + LibDem is still a minority govt.  SNP isn't going in with anybody so looks like no viable coalition possible on these results.

2nd election required on this result.

 

Unless I have missed some recent development, the SNP will surely enter a C&S relationship with Labour. Which, on these numbers,  will mean if Lib Dems choose a side, they will decide weather it is Con or Lab that enters Downing Street. Also, I will be really impressed/amazed if TM survives as PM until 2022. She is extremely vulnerable after March next year.

On the numbers in the OP the Lib Dems would hold a lot of power. They might be too scared to exercise it though. But I think the most likely would be they also agree to support Labour with a rather limited C&S.

It is going to be popcorn time if the numbers in the OP come about. Would cause a very unstable situation!

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There isn't going to be an election, not a chance, the Dup are being blamed for the Irish border issue, but in reality no one is ever going to separate northern Ireland.

At the end of the day its the eus  issue, they have to accept reality.

So to the op, I don't think the lib dems are ever going to be in a position to have influence again, they blew it and their core significant vote source now hates them.

In reality the British people do not take kindly to a lack of integrity.

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3 hours ago, frederico said:

 

In reality the British people do not take kindly to a lack of integrity.

Appears to me they have surprising  tolerance for leaders with a lack of integrity...

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3 minutes ago, Freezer? Best place for it said:

I was pleased to see Nicky go today.

To defend the big money interests of a corporate behemoth against the strictures of the EU's General Data Protection Regulation. :rolleyes:

Blair-scale greed and hypocrisy.

 

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On 19/10/2018 at 00:21, AdamoMucci said:

 

Not sure if serious

Of course. Anyone who thinks otherwise hasn't read the Fixed Term Parliaments Act - and this includes betting shops (and sadly, many posters above!). The sequence of events required to get an early election is incredibly tenuous and unlikely, next, the chances of those exact events happening without all parties wanting an election at the same time are zero.

The fact that it's happened once (in 2017) was a fluke and that only got the required 2/3rds majority because the Labour MPs hated Corbyn and thought he'd lose badly and needed a GE to be out of the way so that they could get to their next Leadership Election. So they voted with the tories to trigger the election. That's not going to work twice.

The other mechanism is the government calling a motion of No Confidence in itself! Not Going To Happen.

 

Edited by mrtickle

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9 hours ago, Renewed Investor said:

I think the odds of a premature GE depend on whether Back Bench Tories can successfully rouse the Party into declaring May to be unsuitable as Party Leader. If that occurs I can see another GE with Reese-Mogg running as the Tory Leader and winning the GE. I think the Media have severely underestimated the loss of followers on the Labour side due to the Anti-Semitism claims as well as various other public blunders. Most people I know don't like the Tories but they are really growing to despise Labour due to the claims I mentioned and the move farther Left. Growing up in the North East everyone I knew was Labour, now I'd say it's about half which is a huge change given this area has been a stronghold for decades. They are losing their core base and will continue to do so unless they change course.

But how could you vote for the CON’s!

They are financial terrorists, theives.. 

Jeremy Hunt reminds me of Tony Blair.. greedy, slimy, corrupt.. I would rather vote Monster Raving Loony than this lot! 

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17 hours ago, Renewed Investor said:

Growing up in the North East everyone I knew was Labour, now I'd say it's about half which is a huge change given this area has been a stronghold for decades. They are losing their core base and will continue to do so unless they change course.

If Labour are doing so badly in NE England, how do you explain the fact that they increased their vote share in every single constituency there between 2015 and 2017? Is "losing their core base" code for "old people don't want to vote for Labour"? Newsflash, pensioners aren't the only ones with the vote. If anything it makes sense for the Labour Party to appeal to working age voters, clue's in the name.

Edited by Dorkins

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