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UK earnings growth accelerates

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"Wage growth unlikely to carry on rising from here," says Samuel Tombs, chief UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.

He goes on: "The recent upturn in wage growth also has been flattered by the recent rebound in average hours. With growth in productivity still weak, inflation set to fall back and firms becoming more cautious about hiring, we doubt that wage growth will sustainably exceed 3% over the next six months.

And he thinks that should prompt the Bank of England to keep interest rates on hold:

"The MPC [Monetary Policy Committee], therefore, should be willing to keep Bank Rate on hold until the March 2019 Brexit deadline has passed without calamity."

keep the rates low!!!

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Well I am certainly seeing this especially in the last 6 months 60k used to be the preserve of software architects and top level here in Cambridge now even senior engineers are getting that money. I think we are starting to see inflation rise again, of course BoE will look through it but we didn't expect any action from them do we.

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2.75% rise again for us (SME Precision Engineering)  and notably it was a straight offer, on a backdrop of reduced sales, and not the usual strings of giving up particular benefits in return.

 

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2 hours ago, cashinmattress said:

If the report is coming from the UK.gov you can guarantee that any figures are fudged by roughly a factor of four.

Probably more like 12-16% unemployment and 0.8-1.5% wage growth

 but when they house house prices are falling you trust them then llol 

It makes me laugh that when people see a govt report that supports what they think they hold on to it and say ift confirms that they know but when it says the opposite its is all a lie LOL 

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9 minutes ago, Andy T said:

2.75% rise again for us (SME Precision Engineering)  and notably it was a straight offer, on a backdrop of reduced sales, and not the usual strings of giving up particular benefits in return.

 

Sorry for taking this off topic but haven't SME just acquired the Garrard name?

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This indicator is the big kahuna amongst indicators.  This figure is big news.

BoE has been resisting tracking US interest rates up even though for 100+ years BoE rates have religiously followed Fed rates

BoE has been quick and keen to use Brexit uncertainties to reinforce near ZIRP and the threat fo additional QE.

BoE 'looks through' any uptick in inflation.

BoE main agenda is to prevent any slide in house prices becoming a rout if mortgage rates have to rise

However BoE is utterly powerless to resist moving rates if wage inflation settles at anything above 2% for more than 2 or 3 quarters.

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Could be just what the doctor ordered but not for the cash rich. 

I remember being bashed by Venger (and trying to bash back tbh) around this point that the only really politically acceptable way of resolving the housing affordability crisis was to have wage inflation and price inflation and flat house prices in the medium term. 

Engineering a crash would cost the govt (any govt) power and maintaining the status quo is obviously building up bigger problems. 

I do think that the BoE would allow inflation to overshoot for a time in the scenario we get a good Brexit result, and by good I mean for the GBP. 

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The BoE are only interested in keeping money tied up in assets. Which is why, up to now, with all the QE around the place, there hasn't been a whiff of inflation in anything other than assets. It's a rentiers paradise. Any surplus goes into housing cost, directly, or indirectly into share buy backs and off shore investments. Daylight robbery. The looting continues.

I bet the MPC are scratching their heads over this.

 

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23 hours ago, dougless said:

Sorry for taking this off topic but haven't SME just acquired the Garrard name?

sorry by SME I meant small and medium enterprises, not a company called SME.

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Let me borrow from David Cameron...

Let me be clear... employment for statistical purposes qualifies as somebody who carries out at least 1 hour per week of paid work.

Or something like that.

So the numbers from UK.gov are totally fudged.

Next it will be 1 hour per month, or once in a lifetime.

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On 16/10/2018 at 12:26, Pebbles said:

Well I am certainly seeing this especially in the last 6 months 60k used to be the preserve of software architects and top level here in Cambridge now even senior engineers are getting that money. I think we are starting to see inflation rise again, of course BoE will look through it but we didn't expect any action from them do we.

Needs to happen. I knew senior Comms Systems Design Engineers earning £60k  in the 1990s.

For what is is worth, I have also just had a new job offer and have upped my base by 50% and OTE by almost 70%. But that is moving into a more senior role as well. But I am seeing clear evidence that employers are having to put their hands deeper into their pockets now than ever before.

People need to stop being afraid of employers and either demand a rise or change jobs.

This would solved the British Productivity Paradox overnight - let rubbish firms with poor products and attendance cultures go to the wall.

 

 

 

 

Edited by Mikhail Liebenstein

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The National Living Wage went up by 4.7% this April. The City crims have been gorging themselves all year on Trump's (unfunded) tax cut for billionaires.

That's really the extent of it. There is no domestic inflation to speak of.

Quote

UK inflation came in much weaker than expected in September, lowering the pound sharply.

Consumer prices rose 2.4 per cent year-on-year, down from the 2.7 per cent rate in August and below the expectations of City analysts of 2.6 per cent.

The Office for National Statistics said on Wednesday that food prices were the main downward pull on prices.

There was also downward pressure from clothing and transport.

Core inflation, which strips out volatile food and fuel prices, declined to 1.9 per cent from 2.1 per cent in August.

The Bank of England raised interest rates to 0.75 per cent in August to curb what it saw as building inflationary pressure in the UK economy.

Sterling fell to $1.3140 against the dollar in the wake of the data on Wednesday, down 0.33 per cent on the day, as traders adjusted bets on the timing of the next rate rise from the Bank.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/uk-inflation-september-pound-sterling-bank-of-england-ons-a8587806.html

 

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Certain sectors are seeing massive wage growth. The building sector is one, site manager total package is over 70k now! Running at over 10% increase per year

The building sector has maintained margins by revenue growth, now that has stalled but with their cost base still rising their margins and share price will come under pressure

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Yeah...it must be all those middle management positions getting 10% + a year lol......BS

What percentage are they of employed ranks?

Some listed the links to how its all fudged....cant believe this keeps cropping up.

10.Unemployment

Things you need to know about unemployment

Unemployment measures people without a job who have been actively seeking work within the last four weeks and are available to start work within the next two weeks.

 

http://www.oecd.org/migration/mig/keepdoorsopentomigrantworkerstomeetlong-termlabourneedssaysoecd.htm

Looking on teh OECD page....some fascinating charts  

on average of every 3 people in the UK...1 is FT employed, 1 PT and 1 not working.....

So 3.1% of £10/hr....is.....not 70k/year LOL

 

 

Edited by Maximus Skepticus

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If the BOE had any decency, they would start moving interest rates in a gradual, signalled way up towards 2 percent. However, as already mentioned, they will just "look through" any inflation to keep vested interests happy. 

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On 16/10/2018 at 12:26, Pebbles said:

Well I am certainly seeing this especially in the last 6 months 60k used to be the preserve of software architects and top level here in Cambridge now even senior engineers are getting that money. I think we are starting to see inflation rise again, of course BoE will look through it but we didn't expect any action from them do we.

No question for advertised roles this is increasingly the case. Let’s see how quickly this new ‘market rate’ is applied to people currently in jobs.... 😉

Still I know plenty of people languishing on 36-48k around here with way over a decade plus experience, and plenty of recruiters still coming to me at 45-50k (laughable for the area and 20 years of very varied experience).

for those with good, valuable skills and talent, they should be looking for and asking for 70-80k+ now. A lot has changed in a short time. As I’ve mentioned before, the Silicon Valley salaries make 70k sterling look like chump change anyway. We are very very cheap now for American firms.

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i remember high wages in the late 90`s then  a decade or two of stagnation yet houses have quadrupled in the same time.  any rises now still less than they should be. 

i had a short term contract as a support monkey in 2000 earning £28/ph  what`s that £50k or more ?

in truth shelf stackers should be earning 30k a year 

 

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4 hours ago, Mikhail Liebenstein said:

Needs to happen. I knew senior Comms Systems Design Engineers earning £60k  in the 1990s.

For what is is worth, I have also just had a new job offer and have upped my base by 50% and OTE by almost 70%. But that is moving into a more senior role as well. But I am seeing clear evidence that employers are having to put their hands deeper into their pockets now than ever before.

People need to stop being afraid of employers and either demand a rise or change jobs.

This would solved the British Productivity Paradox overnight - let rubbish firms with poor products and attendance cultures go to the wall.

 

 

 

 

Agree we need to be more aggressive in chasing the money that is where most of my pay rises have come from.

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On 16/10/2018 at 12:26, Pebbles said:

Well I am certainly seeing this especially in the last 6 months 60k used to be the preserve of software architects and top level here in Cambridge now even senior engineers are getting that money. I think we are starting to see inflation rise again, of course BoE will look through it but we didn't expect any action from them do we.

The only problem is if wages of skilled workers rise the government will be lobbied to open the immigration to keep these under control especially in a post Brexit environment.

Richard Dyson is already very publicly asking for this. 

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  • 140 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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