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iNews Commentary on Brexit HPC

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Should we be concerned about a drop?


George Osborne warned of a possible 18 per cent fall in the two years following Brexit  (Photo: PA) House prices were a big feature of the EU referendum campaigns.


On the Remain side, former Chancellor George Osborne warned of a possible 18 per cent fall in the two years following Brexit due to an economic shock and declining overseas demand. On the Leave side, a potential dip was hailed as an opportunity for the millions of (mostly young) priced out renters in this country who are currently giving landlords over half of their take-home pay in some UK cities. Property expert and analyst Henry Pryor tells i all of this is “a bit like New Year’s Eve 1999 when we were all worried about the millennium bug…were aeroplanes going to fall out of the sky?” Of course, that didn’t happen. “The same will probably be true of Brexit”. What Brexit does mean for the housing market? However, Mr Pryor says there is no doubt that what Brexit means for the housing market is “uncertainty”.


As with general elections and 2016’s referendum, Brexit is causing “buyers to park their plans and put off making decisions about making what for most of them will be the single biggest purchase they ever make.” More from iviews Party conference season has ended British politics’ phoney war. Now it’s time for real action How being single costs me an extra £3,600 a year Women like me loved Doctor Who long before it got a female lead This is why some Tory MPs are hoping for another recession Still no Brexit details at Tory conference The death of this Italian lothario left me wistful for a simpler time Next Ultimately, deal or no deal, “supply will still be driven by the three Ds – people will die, want to get divorced and need to pay their debts, so they will have to sell.


The question is how many people will be buying? We may see fewer transactions or deals done at discounted levels in Q1 next year in order to persuade buyers to take the plunge”. This, he says, “will show up in the housing statistics and what we will see is that house prices will look lower, so it may be that the Brexit shadow is cast much further into 2019 next year.” If he had to estimate how much lower, Henry says he expects “prices to be off by around five per cent, but not the doomsday scenario of 35 per cent.” How will different areas be affected? The average house price in the UK was £226,367 in September (Photo: Getty) It’s important to be very, very, very clear: the likelihood of a “crash” is low. Very low, but the market has, arguably, already been slowing down. According to the ONS, house prices in London have recorded their first annual fall in nearly a decade, with the average price of a home in London falling by almost £5,000 in 2017. The thing with the housing prices is that we so often talk about them in broad brush strokes and sweeping statements but, the truth is that it really depends where in the country you live. According to the most recent ONS data, while prices may have fallen by one per cent in London, they rose by more than six per cent in Scotland and the Midlands.

Read more at: https://inews.co.uk/opinion/comment/will-house-prices-crash-after-brexit-the-experts-answer-your-questions/

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1 hour ago, macca13 said:

They still don’t get it! High house prices and rents are destroying the economy, They are destroying the future of the next generation.. 

Why work hard to give all your money to a parasitic Landlord scumbag! It’s not worth it! 

That's an interesting perspective.  I wonder if, as we move towards a less equal society, people will consciously or unconsciously adopt that view.

Pre-revolutionary Russia was a pretty moribund society and was not making the progress, socially or economically, that other parts of Europe were at the time.  The inequality and lack of progress were drivers for revolution and a century before a similar thing happened in France.  I think the UK needs to be a bit careful regarding its growth in the numbers of disenfranchised citizens  - traditionally Britain rolled back injustices just in time to avert disaster; I wonder if we will again.  Having said that, we are living in interesting times.

Edited by dougless
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