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rantnrave

Halifax Index September 2018

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7 minutes ago, rantnrave said:

Don't be fooled by the headlines folks

Sep 2017: £225,369

Sep 2018: £225,995

Published annual growth figure: 2.5%

Yes, 0.28% rise YoY September to September.

And -0.5% QoQ June to September. Published figure +1.8%.

 

They really are clutching at diarrhoea.

Edited by neon tetra

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Last month revised down from +0.1% to -0.2%.

Stopped this month's figures being even worse (and last month's being negative as well).

 

God only knows how they come up with the quarterly figures of +1.8%.

Edited by Oliver Sutton

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9 minutes ago, Sperm Donor said:

Excellent news. This makes a YOY drop look eminently conceivable in the next couple of months

Am not so sure, six months ago, their average price was £4k lower than it is now. Lots of scope to avoid a YoY negative for a while yet.

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3 minutes ago, rantnrave said:

Am not so sure, six months ago, their average price was £4k lower than it is now. Lots of scope to avoid a YoY negative for a while yet.

So got to lose 2% (or so) in 'the next couple of months' ... at least now mathematically possible.

These are seasonally adjusted figures? Winter could help otherwise ...

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Regional data due out on the 10th, should be interesting to see if it shows London and SE England falling as the ONS index did.

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Its all bull. Halifax love to give a little bit extra 🤣

for facts HM Land Registry Service is the only real credible source. All the rest is fictional... on what has been borrowed.

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1 hour ago, maverick73 said:

Its all bull. Halifax love to give a little bit extra 🤣

for facts HM Land Registry Service is the only real credible source. All the rest is fictional... on what has been borrowed.

Absolutely land registry figures are all that matters. There does seem to be a lack of decent properties here in Cambridgeshire available. I.e nice detached or 3 bed semis priced around last sold price. Yes there are lots of new properties on the market but they are either BTL flats and maisonettes or have no garden or parking or are unrealistically prices so in reality not on the market (i recon about a third of the properties on RM are so unrealistically priced they spend no chance of selling therefore not part of the market. Anything nice and reasonable with garden and parking and priced ok compared to last sale on street (still high) seems to go within a couple of weeks certainly not months.

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Ok this is what will happen next month according to the month on month change:

Prices up by 1% M/M, Qtr and Year keep dropping

image.png.f7180e9b4a8f31ad08c279df4d80269c.png

Prices static M/M; Q/Q goes negative:

image.png.a3d7956ce4f1ed449eaac93d99193159.png

A repeat of the M/M -1.4%; Y/Y still not yet negative:

image.png.ca5e3801f63461755c68bd5c7cf4e82f.png

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18 minutes ago, ElPapasito said:

Ok this is what will happen next month according to the month on month change:

Prices up by 1% M/M, Qtr and Year keep dropping

image.png.f7180e9b4a8f31ad08c279df4d80269c.png

Prices static M/M; Q/Q goes negative:

image.png.a3d7956ce4f1ed449eaac93d99193159.png

A repeat of the M/M -1.4%; Y/Y still not yet negative:

image.png.ca5e3801f63461755c68bd5c7cf4e82f.png

Thanks!

I have a feeling next month will reverse this month, so up 1.4% - presumably that keeps YoY at 2%?

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10 hours ago, rantnrave said:

Ya gotta luv the Beeb...

ezgif_com_gif_maker.jpg

Unbelievable isn't it. BBC couldn't bear to go with the MOM negative story as the headline and went with something of little relevance to the recent figures that comes as no news to anyone.

If anything I'm seeing more for sale than I have for at least 2 years... 

Thanks all for the analysis of the figures. 

 

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Forget the BS from the VI.

Go out and look at properties and talk to agents. Agents are getting desparte. The market is turning. I looked at one recently listed as overs over. Been in market 6 months are reduced a few times. I offered 10% under. Surprisingly i had their full attention. Vendor indicated he would sell for 5% under.

Last btl has bought. fTBs are trying up. Even the top end 4 bed plus large garden is sticking now.

Edited by GreenDevil

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  • 140 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

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