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crazypabs

It's a buyer's market BBC breakfast

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I only caught a bit of the story but on BBC breakfast during the business section, there was a journalist quoting that it is definitely a buyer's market now.

Put a smile on my face over breakfast.

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I don’t normally intervene, but just to clarify.

A buyer’s market means by definition that it’s not a good time to buy. Essentially there is a lot of supply and not enough buyers.

It’s called buyer’s market because sellers have to attract buyers. There is no interest on the buyer’s side, mainly because they believe that they are getting a bad deal under current conditions. The main mechanism during this period is for prices to be lowered.

The journalist is saying DO NOT BUY. However, I am amazed about how many people misunderstand the terminology and get the opposite message.

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17 minutes ago, Burbujista said:

I don’t normally intervene, but just to clarify.

A buyer’s market means by definition that it’s not a good time to buy. Essentially there is a lot of supply and not enough buyers.

It’s called buyer’s market because sellers have to attract buyers. There is no interest on the buyer’s side, mainly because they believe that they are getting a bad deal under current conditions. The main mechanism during this period is for prices to be lowered.

The journalist is saying DO NOT BUY. However, I am amazed about how many people misunderstand the terminology and get the opposite message.

A buyers market is a market where there are many sellers and few buyers, giving the buyer ample choice.

 

What it means is that everyone is trying to offload onto a tiny pool.

 

What the journalist is trying to say is: haggle 

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4 hours ago, Burbujista said:

I don’t normally intervene, but just to clarify.

A buyer’s market means by definition that it’s not a good time to buy. Essentially there is a lot of supply and not enough buyers.

That's not quite correct.

It's a buyer's market, but nobody knows what the market will be like in the future.

In any case, the question isn't when to buy, but what price to buy at.

Your conclusion relies on the assumption that the market continues to be a buyer's market and a buyer isn't able to negotiate a good price.

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All I can see out there is a definite softening especially with BTL fodder and houses that appeal to investors (ie 4 bed townhouses in city centre not near schools built for sharers etc).  Stock is looking up and more interesting properties are for sale than over the last few months some even reduce their prices xxk in stages working their way down..  

But as I have posted before our beloved Mark carney has put it out there that houses are going to tank if there is no deal and the time is not that far away.  There are 2 maybe 3 auctions for those that need cash within six weeks.  Then in a few months for most chained buyers are going to be in the situation of completing (or not) during Brexit.

People love trying for the exits at the same time, from the Middle of November it's going to get stressful, certainly no reason to offer full price. 

 

 

 

Edited by Fromage Frais

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8 hours ago, GreenDevil said:

It is still a sellers market for detached houses or large semis near good schools.

This is sadly true, all over the country.  Flats, who gives a ******. 

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Number of new listings across UK towns and cities rises as autumn dawns

https://www.propertyindustryeye.com/number-of-new-listings-across-uk-towns-and-cities-rises-as-autumn-dawns/

The number of new properties being brought to the UK sales market last month was up 6.2% on September last year.

The calculation, from online agent Housesimple, is based on figures at the website Home, which show September’s new supply up 18.1% on August.

The number of new listings rose from 61,472 in August to 72,593 in September. The figure does not cover the whole of the UK, only the 100 towns and cities picked out for study by HouseSimple.

In London there was a huge 45.5% increase in new listings in September, more than twice the UK average.

This was the highest level of new supply coming to the market in the capital in any single month since before 2015.

The following table shows the ten UK towns and cities where there were the biggest rises in new sellers in September versus August:

Town/City

 

 

Region

 

 

% Increase in new listings

Sept vs Aug

London South East 45.5%
Cambridge East 36.2%
Salisbury South West 34.1%
Salford North West 33.8%
Winchester South 32.5%
Poole South 31.7%
Sale North West 27.2%
Rugby West Midlands 26.8%
Stevenage South East 26.2%
Worthing South East 26.1%

The following table shows the five UK towns and cities which saw the biggest drop off in new sellers in September versus August:

Town/City

 

 

Region

 

 

% Decrease in new listings

Sept vs Aug

Lichfield West Midlands -37.1%
Lancaster North West -31.6%
Loughborough East Midlands -29.1%
Stoke-on-Trent West Midlands -28.0%
Chester North West -26.0%

London

The following table shows the five London boroughs which saw the biggest rise in the number of new sellers in September vs August:

London Borough

 

 

% Increase in September vs August

 

 

Kensington & Chelsea 96.1%
Haringey 79.2%
Camden 77.5%
City of Westminster 70.3%
Hammersmith & Fulham 69.0%

Sam Mitchell, CEO of HouseSimple.com, said: “It was one of the hottest summers on record and buyer and seller activity inevitably dropped off in July and August.

“But come September, it was very much business as usual. We saw a healthy level of new properties being listed last month, in what is traditionally a busy period for estate agents.

“It’s interesting to note that seller numbers are rising faster in London than anywhere else in the country.

“Understandably, a lot of home owners were choosing to wait, hoping that prices would recover quickly.

“Now that doesn’t appear likely, the need to move is the priority. They don’t want to wait any longer and they know this is a good time to sell with plenty of motivated buyers.

“It’s not so much a case of beating the Brexit rush for the door, but more that life has to go on.”

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18 hours ago, Burbujista said:

I don’t normally intervene, but just to clarify.

A buyer’s market means by definition that it’s not a good time to buy. Essentially there is a lot of supply and not enough buyers.

It’s called buyer’s market because sellers have to attract buyers. There is no interest on the buyer’s side, mainly because they believe that they are getting a bad deal under current conditions. The main mechanism during this period is for prices to be lowered.

The journalist is saying DO NOT BUY. However, I am amazed about how many people misunderstand the terminology and get the opposite message.

.......sellers have a price in their mind, a figure initially on what they think their property is worth, they also have if workable a plan b of renting it out if they can't realise that figure (it can only grow in value).......only when holding onto a property becomes a liability no longer an asset will prices fall to realistic levels....the burden of holding it is intolerable.😉

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2 hours ago, winkie said:

.......sellers have a price in their mind, a figure initially on what they think their property is worth, they also have if workable a plan b of renting it out if they can't realise that figure (it can only grow in value).......only when holding onto a property becomes a liability no longer an asset will prices fall to realistic levels....the burden of holding it is intolerable.😉

Problem is compared to some other economies the cost of servicing a house without a mortgage (or small one)  is very  cheap . No local income tax, energy cheap (Denmark for instance  4- 5 times higher), temperate climate, majority of stock brick built so can get by with minimum maintenance. 

4 hours ago, stuckmojo said:

This is sadly true, all over the country.  Flats, who gives a ******. 

@GreenDevil Excatly what I have just said on the other thread

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On 03/10/2018 at 13:51, Burbujista said:

 

The journalist is saying DO NOT BUY. However, I am amazed about how many people misunderstand the terminology and get the opposite message.

VIs push hard the message that it's a good time to buy...

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On 03/10/2018 at 18:30, Kosmin said:

That's not quite correct.

It's a buyer's market, but nobody knows what the market will be like in the future.

In any case, the question isn't when to buy, but what price to buy at.

Your conclusion relies on the assumption that the market continues to be a buyer's market and a buyer isn't able to negotiate a good price.

Your comment about “nobody knows” would be true in a liquid market. In an illiquid market when there are big turns people know what the market is going to do. That is exactly the reason why RICS can claim that their surveys are a leading indicator!

However, in this country there have been several times when everybody knew what the market was ready to do and what happened is that the Bank of England and the politicians made everything they could to break the market.

In other words, the efficient market hypothesis, which would make your claim true doesn’t apply in housing because people refuse to adjust their prices to the news (in economical terms, prices are “sticky”) and the market is not free (it has been manipulated by negative real interest rates, QE, help to buy, too lax lending to BTL, etc).

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1 hour ago, Save me from the madness! said:

Given that a lot of people who are looking to buy already own, does it really make any difference whether it's a buyer or sellers market given that most people end up being both in any transaction?

The net debt is generally increasing, so they don’t cancel each other out.

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On 03/10/2018 at 13:51, Burbujista said:

I don’t normally intervene, but just to clarify.

A buyer’s market means by definition that it’s not a good time to buy. Essentially there is a lot of supply and not enough buyers.

It’s called buyer’s market because sellers have to attract buyers. There is no interest on the buyer’s side, mainly because they believe that they are getting a bad deal under current conditions. The main mechanism during this period is for prices to be lowered.

The journalist is saying DO NOT BUY. However, I am amazed about how many people misunderstand the terminology and get the opposite message.

Indeed a bad time.

I wonder though if their message is really just a re-parroting* of a press release from a VI who message is always "buy, buy buy"?

 

*Not sure if this is a real word but my spell checker approved it 😉

Edited by nightowl

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6 hours ago, Save me from the madness! said:

Given that a lot of people who are looking to buy already own, does it really make any difference whether it's a buyer or sellers market given that most people end up being both in any transaction?

If you own several properties, a buyers market destroys your capability to release equity from your properties or obtain financing to adquiere further properties. So... it does matter a lot for people who are buyers and sellers at the same time, especially when they are really leveraged.

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On ‎04‎/‎10‎/‎2018 at 21:41, Burbujista said:

Your comment about “nobody knows” would be true in a liquid market. In an illiquid market when there are big turns people know what the market is going to do. That is exactly the reason why RICS can claim that their surveys are a leading indicator!

However, in this country there have been several times when everybody knew what the market was ready to do and what happened is that the Bank of England and the politicians made everything they could to break the market.

In other words, the efficient market hypothesis, which would make your claim true doesn’t apply in housing because people refuse to adjust their prices to the news (in economical terms, prices are “sticky”) and the market is not free (it has been manipulated by negative real interest rates, QE, help to buy, too lax lending to BTL, etc).

Arguably the housing market could be predictable, but it isn't possible to earn excess returns because the transaction costs are too high. Another important factor is the time it takes to buy and sell. You might be able to determine the optimal time to sell, and agree a sale. But if the sales fall through and the market is then falling, it may be too late.

I think your point about RICS is different. Insofar as they can predict what will happen to prices, it's because they see the prices first. So they may be able to predict roughly what will happen to Land Registry figures in several months, because in several months the Land Registry figures will be based on properties completing which are currently under offer. This IS NOT seeing what the market is going to do. It is seeing what the market is doing.

When there is a sudden change (like the stamp duty cut when the slab system was removed, or the recent change for FTBs) this doesn't show up in prices for months, but the market prices (offered and accepted) change very quickly.

Estate agents and surveyors are not getting rich by timing the market, because they don't know what the market will do. They only know what the market has recently done.

 

Your second paragraph contradicts your claim. People who thought prices would crash didn't predict the response of monetary authorities or the government.

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On 04/10/2018 at 11:51, GregBowman said:

Problem is compared to some other economies the cost of servicing a house without a mortgage (or small one)  is very  cheap . No local income tax, energy cheap (Denmark for instance  4- 5 times higher), temperate climate, majority of stock brick built so can get by with minimum maintenance. 

@GreenDevil

Yes, one home live in and own or buying should not be highly taxed, want more pay more for it, more to hold it...Denmark have higher incomes, higher taxes and high quality of public services, investment in its people.......most of our housing stock if well maintained over life span is low maintenance......the property that has been abused and neglected for income purposes only will always require money spent on it......live in a road where the new owners do not live there, do not care and people come and go will not be so desirable ...... people with no or little stake in the community they live in or bought into.;)

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  • 146 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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