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Horseradish

UBS real estate bubble index

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UBS' real estate bubble index 2018 edition has been posted. On the plus side it's good to have another reputable source calling a spade a spade with which property speculators have been diligently digging their own graves, which you can refer others to. But to be honest there's nothing greatly novel, and the UK aspect is limited to London. They do observe that:

Quote

Historically, investors have had to be alert to rising interest rates, which have served as the main trigger of corrections. Most such downdrafts in the past 40 years have been preceded by an increase in rates.

And also references "Easy financing conditions" having "boosted demand almost everywhere". But that's not really news; not round these parts at least. There is a section showing that prices are unaffordable to local (skilled, even) workers on average salaries. Again, not groundbreaking, but good to have a report to point at. They note that "Politics may cause an overcorrection"; here's hoping, eh!

The key phrasing from the London section:

Quote

Overall, inflation-adjusted prices are more than 10% higher than in 2007, when the last bubble burst, while rents have stayed roughly stable and real incomes have gone down by 10%.

"than in 2007" being the operative phrase there. Especially since the prices didn't really correct then; the government just double-bubbled it.

Regarding the source data and methods:

Their index score is a combination of five indices:

  1. price-to-income
  2. price-to-rent
  3. change in mortgage-to-GDP ratio
  4. change in construction-to-GDP ratio
  5. relative price-city-to-country indicator

Their data sources are: Nationwide, Lloyd's, the ONS, the UBS Prices & Earnings survey, BoE data, EUKLEMS, Macrobond, and Bloomberg.

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21 minutes ago, Horseradish said:

UBS' real estate bubble index 2018 edition has been posted. On the plus side it's good to have another reputable source calling a spade a spade with which property speculators have been diligently digging their own graves, which you can refer others to. But to be honest there's nothing greatly novel, and the UK aspect is limited to London. They do observe that:

And also references "Easy financing conditions" having "boosted demand almost everywhere". But that's not really news; not round these parts at least. There is a section showing that prices are unaffordable to local (skilled, even) workers on average salaries. Again, not groundbreaking, but good to have a report to point at. They note that "Politics may cause an overcorrection"; here's hoping, eh!

The key phrasing from the London section:

"than in 2007" being the operative phrase there. Especially since the prices didn't really correct then; the government just double-bubbled it.

Regarding the source data and methods:

Their index score is a combination of five indices:

  1. price-to-income
  2. price-to-rent
  3. change in mortgage-to-GDP ratio
  4. change in construction-to-GDP ratio
  5. relative price-city-to-country indicator

Their data sources are: Nationwide, Lloyd's, the ONS, the UBS Prices & Earnings survey, BoE data, EUKLEMS, Macrobond, and Bloomberg.

Like someone else mentioned in another thread

"It's going to be biblical"

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1 hour ago, Horseradish said:

Overall, inflation-adjusted prices are more than 10% higher than in 2007, when the last bubble burst, while rents have stayed roughly stable and real incomes have gone down by 10%.

UBS research must be wrong because brexiters promise that it is Eastern European immigrants driving up prices, and yet, rents have remained stable? 

And UBS keep mentioning how sensitive prices are to interest rates and they don't even mention Piotr, Pawel and Tomasz who are the real culprits behind the global real estate bubble. 

Amateurs. They need to subscribe to the "brexit what happens next thread" where they can learn all about this.

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30 minutes ago, dugsbody said:

UBS research must be wrong because brexiters promise that it is Eastern European immigrants driving up prices, and yet, rents have remained stable? 

And UBS keep mentioning how sensitive prices are to interest rates and they don't even mention Piotr, Pawel and Tomasz who are the real culprits behind the global real estate bubble. 

Amateurs. They need to subscribe to the "brexit what happens next thread" where they can learn all about this.

No.

Despite ~8-10m EE arriving in the UK, in mainly rented accommodation, prices have not gone up because the supply of rentals has gone up even more.

~5-% of house sales since 2002ish have been to IO BTL loons.

Youve almost a n entire generation of under 25s still livjgn at their parents.

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, dugsbody said:

UBS research must be wrong because brexiters promise that it is Eastern European immigrants driving up prices, and yet, rents have remained stable? 

A lot of lettings agents and landlords have been saying that rents have gone down and void periods have increased due to the eat euros not being as prevalent

I do a lot of work in Hounslow and Hayes and Ilford that is certainly a feature of the market there

they do not drive up sale price as very few buy they rent and send all their money home and sit indoors drinking lager and not going to the local bars restaurants etc 

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39 minutes ago, spyguy said:

Despite ~8-10m EE arriving in the UK, in mainly rented accommodation, prices have not gone up because the supply of rentals has gone up even more.

agreed the increase in population who are transient and have no desire to buy or not enough income to buy working in cafe nero has brought investors in who have bought up flats in huge numbers 

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And the EE -and other people around the world - will find their right to remain in the UK goes as they are dependent on tax credits/benefits as the rules on people not paying their own way will, at last, tighten.

 

 

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1 hour ago, happyguy said:

they do not drive up sale price as very few buy they rent and send all their money home and sit indoors drinking lager and not going to the local bars restaurants etc 

 

They have not yet lost their marbles when it comes to money and phoney social status.

I know a few EE. One told me he can build his own home for £30k back in his country. Forgetting the politics for a second it is completely rational what they are doing. Maxing income, minimising outgoings. No need for pretentious nonsense like £3 coffees, or £60 restaurant bills for two at mediocre establishments trying to stay afloat in a saturated market.

But on the politics, I do not know what they are doing to rents, but they are certainly suppressing wages. This is simply fact and it amazes me how the phoney left try to dodge this charge with the lie that British people do not want to do the work.

Also, I have seen the finances of a number of EE. A huge number are on in work benefits - HB, working tax credits, child tax credits/benefit. I do not buy the argument that they are a net gain for the economy. That is another lie, but it is a lie that is very easy to make given the economic illiteracy that is about, particularly among the phoney left.

It is a sad situation because in my experience EE are no different to us, many very nice, a few not so much. Just like any society there are different personality types. And they are just trying to make their way. But the EU has screwed over the working class British, of that there is absolutely no doubt. Dugsbody is a POS frankly. The phoney left are the worst of the worst. Pretentious virtue signallers with the most toxic combination of self overestimated intelligence along with hateful envy and social climbing, keeping up with the Joneses mentality. They are at least as vile as hardcore Conservatives.

It is an absolute betrayal. The phoney left see less fortunate Brits as an underclass. They sneer down their noses at them. They call them uneducated if they didnt get into massive debt and go to university (particularly in the US). They see them as useless eaters, like inherited pets, that need to be sheltered and fed and kept in a managed existence.

 

 

Edited by AdamoMucci

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26 minutes ago, AdamoMucci said:

Dugsbody is a POS frankly.

Thank you.

The meme "they took er jerbs" exists for a reason. Humans are tribal and like to blame outsiders for any problems. This hasn't changed in centuries. You think blaming the Eastern Europeans for our domestic issues is smart, you've got it all figured out? 

Nope. You're just doing what every single generation of humans has always done and the political class love it, because it means they don't get the blame. The immigrants do.

"I'm not blaming immigrants, I'm blaming immigration" is just a sleight of hand. It's the same thing.

The ideal of the UK is to allow citizens of the UK to live good lives by seeking work where the work is to be had. We don't box people in their place of birth even though there are vast differences economically and northerners are free to undercut Londoners wages by moving to London. Europe seeks this same ideal. The people of Europe can move freely to seek work where there is work to be had. This is an ideal to be supported, not loathed.

The only reason you'd argue it is fine in the four nations of the UK but not fine in the 28 nations of the EU is because of nationalism, coupled with some post-fact rationalisation of this nationalism (ie. contrived stretched arguments based on some cobbled together anecdotes and personal opinion). 

Freedom of movement can and does work in Europe. Pity brexiters loathe it so much they are intent on destroying our economy to end it.

 

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5 hours ago, spyguy said:

And the EE -and other people around the world - will find their right to remain in the UK goes as they are dependent on tax credits/benefits as the rules on people not paying their own way will, at last, tighten.

 

 

What is the offical position on tax credit/benefits  for EE after brexit

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2 minutes ago, prozac said:

What is the offical position on tax credit/benefits  for EE after brexit

Afaik theres no official position.

It look like theyll be able to stay.

It looks likely there will be no right to tax credits and hb.

Its very likely theyll have to get health insurance, which they should have had already.

Its very possibke theyll be billed cost for each kid at school.

 

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4 hours ago, dugsbody said:

Thank you.

The meme "they took er jerbs" exists for a reason. Humans are tribal and like to blame outsiders for any problems. This hasn't changed in centuries. You think blaming the Eastern Europeans for our domestic issues is smart, you've got it all figured out? 

Nope. You're just doing what every single generation of humans has always done and the political class love it, because it means they don't get the blame. The immigrants do.

"I'm not blaming immigrants, I'm blaming immigration" is just a sleight of hand. It's the same thing.

The ideal of the UK is to allow citizens of the UK to live good lives by seeking work where the work is to be had. We don't box people in their place of birth even though there are vast differences economically and northerners are free to undercut Londoners wages by moving to London. Europe seeks this same ideal. The people of Europe can move freely to seek work where there is work to be had. This is an ideal to be supported, not loathed.

The only reason you'd argue it is fine in the four nations of the UK but not fine in the 28 nations of the EU is because of nationalism, coupled with some post-fact rationalisation of this nationalism (ie. contrived stretched arguments based on some cobbled together anecdotes and personal opinion). 

Freedom of movement can and does work in Europe. Pity brexiters loathe it so much they are intent on destroying our economy to end it.

 

No.

Other EU countries have contribution based welfare.

Uk has needs based. 

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2 minutes ago, spyguy said:

Afaik theres no official position.

It look like theyll be able to stay.

It looks likely there will be no right to tax credits and hb.

Its very likely theyll have to get health insurance, which they should have had already.

Its very possibke theyll be billed cost for each kid at school.

 

The whole system could come crashing down

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12 minutes ago, spyguy said:

Afaik theres no official position.

It look like theyll be able to stay.

It looks likely there will be no right to tax credits and hb.

Its very likely theyll have to get health insurance, which they should have had already.

Its very possibke theyll be billed cost for each kid at school.

 

Outside of this website, I haven't seen a sniff of those things being mentioned?

 

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3 minutes ago, mrtickle said:

Outside of this website, I haven't seen a sniff of those things being mentioned?

 

Ukgov needs every penny.

EUers dont vote.

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1 minute ago, spyguy said:

Ukgov needs every penny.

EUers dont vote.

Yes indeed, but is there any other indication, other than sound logic and reason?

Any public articles from any source suggesting it as a future policy?

There are lots of UK voters (who do vote) who would be violently against it; the "won't someone please think of the children" bridate.

 

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8 hours ago, mrtickle said:

Yes indeed, but is there any other indication, other than sound logic and reason?

Any public articles from any source suggesting it as a future policy?

There are lots of UK voters (who do vote) who would be violently against it; the "won't someone please think of the children" bridate.

 

You need to listen to want Teresa May says.

If EU   not had the EE FOM in 2004 and Brown and not gone all out with tax credits at roughly the same time then Brexit would never have happened.

Everything Ive heard so far points to FOM being kept but people have to be self supporting.

Whether that self supporting also incudes paying for no working spouses and kids use of public services is yet to be seen.

 

 

 

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  • 150 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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