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Renters in marginal constituencies have abandoned the Tories

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https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/7366013/renters-abandon-tories-housing/

Labour leapfrogs Tories in the 60 most marginal seats to take a 2 point lead

It’s a poll commissioned by Shelter so “they would say that would’nt they” etc.  But if I remember rightly the poll that was most right at the last GE focussed on marginals. 

Brexit is a massive distraction for now, but I think we’re very close to the tipping point where housing becomes the biggest electoral issue for the main parties. 

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I'm nearing 30

Middle class, profesional job, did the uni educayshun thing

Not a snowballs chance of buying

 

Remind me again why free market capitalism is all so good? [What happened after 08 is not free market by a long shot, or else we would have banks paying out 6/7/8% per year on savings]

 

 

Edited by No One

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2 minutes ago, dougless said:

The good news keeps on coming.  We could be looking at the death of the Tory party.

I'd prefer a flushing out of the Tory party. Supposedly the conservatives are meant to be fiscally prudent.

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What have either of them done to improve things for the middle?.....or anyone apart from themselves?.....or are there many things they would like to do but there is no longer any money only more debt.....give it in one hand, take it away with the other....... don't say we don't give you anything.😉

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2 hours ago, dougless said:

The good news keeps on coming.  We could be looking at the death of the Tory party.

Well, only the death of the Tory party in its current incarnation, in the same way that New Labour has already died. There is absolutely room for a non-socialist narrative for solving the housing issue, but it involves ditching the "flexible rental market" and "house is my pension" narratives, and the current Tory leadership are not (yet) willing to do that because their over 65 voter base would baulk at any real alternatives. 

A more traditional conservative approach would consider homes to be fundamental to a good family life, and secure housing for the majority as being essential to developing and maintaining a nation of upstanding citizens. Speculation and investing in homes would be frowned upon as attacking that principle, housing ownership and tenancy models could be reformed to suit people in different sections of society. Remember, traditional conservatism doesn't seek to turn everyone into a self-sufficient aspirational social climber, it tries to ensure everyone is happy with their place in society and not getting upperty socialist ideas about overthrowing the stats quo.

The current Tory policy is a leftover from the neoliberal ideal of the property owning democracy (a noble ideal in itself it should be said), but the property owning democracy was unable to disentangle itself with the libertarian free market ideal of the speculator and rent seeker as hero entrepreneur, and here we are - an entire generation priced-out of secure housing by predatory finance and BTL spivs. Once the Tories accept that the old dream is over, and that shouting "Venezuela!" at anyone suggesting an alternative isn't going to hold back the inevitable, I'm sure a more traditional conservative approach to housing will emerge from the right.

 

Edited by Bear Goggles

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37 minutes ago, mrtickle said:

Well, there's this...

1157207811_Figure2_Generalgovernmentnetborrowing(deficit)asapercentageofGDP.png.d7bd898754a76673a404663fe6fffc9f.png

 

You can't just look at government debt.   The system doesn't operate like that and what government does is not discrete from the rest of the economy.  So the government deficit might have fallen but its bloody useless as a data point if the only reason its happened is because they've encouraged young homeowners to load up to the gills on debt.

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22 minutes ago, mrtickle said:

You can't just assume that's the only reason it's happened.

 

Yes you can if you understand economics and sectoral balances then look at the actual underlying data.

Have you done that?

Edited by Lurkerbelow

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5 hours ago, Bear Goggles said:

The current Tory policy is a leftover from the neoliberal ideal of the property owning democracy (a noble ideal in itself it should be said), but the property owning democracy was unable to disentangle itself with the libertarian free market ideal of the speculator and rent seeker as hero entrepreneur

I agree with the basic idea, but not with this bit. 

The parliamentary Conservative party more or less abandoned conservatism in favour of neoliberalism some time in the late seventies, that much is true. 

However, the homeowning democracy is a conservative idea. It is not a neoliberal idea. 

To a neoliberal, it doesn’t matter whether you own your own home, it only matters that it is decided by a market. It doesn’t matter if you might lose your home at a moments notice, as long as the market chooses then it must be the right choice. It certainly doesn’t matter if you don’t know your neighbours or if everyone around you is rootless and transient, because communities and societies don’t exist anyway.

It doesn’t even matter if the market has to be imposed by the state, so long as it is, superficially, a market.

Markets can never be wrong, and so any ‘housing crisis’ is actually the optimal state of affairs, that results from people’s individual choices not to buy homes, or not to build homes, or whatever.  If not, then the only other possible explanation is that someone has been meddling with the perfection of the market.

This is in absolute contradiction with conservative ideology, in which home ownership is a good in its own right, since it gives people a stake in society and helps to create stable families and stable communities.   If the market is interfering, negatively, with traditional society, then damn the market.  Sure, the working classes might need the beneficence of a caring landlord, but they can aspire to homeownership if they work hard enough.

Of course, conservatives are often deeply hypocritical, and real conservative politics generally means reinforcing existing wealth and power.  In particular, British conservatism is, historically, the ideology of the landlord.  The ideology followed backwards from the belief that the landed gentry were magical.

Nevertheless, there is such a thing as a conservative philosophy, divorced from the usual corruption.  It does have some valid arguments, and they are probably more widely believed amongst the electorate than neoliberalism ever was.

Homeownership really is a conservative ideal, and neoliberalism has killed it.  But this is also true of other conservative ideals such as family, community and stability in general.

Quote

Why am I supposed to be sad that the price of my house is falling? I suspect that many others feel, as I do, that the price of my house is insanely high and that it does me no good at all.

Unless I want to borrow more money – something I was brought up to dislike and mistrust – there is no gain at all for me. I can realise the money tied up in my home only if I go and live in a tent, so what use is it to me? The ridiculous cost of housing today means that I cannot work out how my children will ever be able to afford their own homes, and nor can they. This is unjust and bad for everyone involved.

Peter Hitchens, Mail on Sunday, 2008.

 

Edited by BorrowToLeech

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9 hours ago, Bear Goggles said:

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/7366013/renters-abandon-tories-housing/

Labour leapfrogs Tories in the 60 most marginal seats to take a 2 point lead

It’s a poll commissioned by Shelter so “they would say that would’nt they” etc.  But if I remember rightly the poll that was most right at the last GE focussed on marginals. 

Brexit is a massive distraction for now, but I think we’re very close to the tipping point where housing becomes the biggest electoral issue for the main parties. 

Please justify why you think you should be entitled to buy a house, when immigrant workers are happy to sleep, perhaps, six to a room?

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We will see a repeat of 1992 in next general election. Corbyn is following footsteps of Kinnock. Too late for Labour. Its just a party of feminists, anti-semite, ethnic minorities and miners. Working class white can't afford another recession. Shy tories are always a great wall which only Blair managed to breach. Most of my friends switched to tories in their mid thirties. Most of them not interested to pay more taxes under corbyn. I am still stuck with Labour in safe tory seat. Here I'm an alien as Labour are not even campaigning in local elections in my place as they have slim chances. Every 10 years, I'm seeing 25+ year labour voters gradually turning blue in their mid to late thirties. Labour has to reinvent itself. Blair is not the solution, but the way he demolished tory machinery is a lesson labour could emulate. 

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15 minutes ago, Simhadri said:

We will see a repeat of 1992 in next general election. Corbyn is following footsteps of Kinnock. Too late for Labour. Its just a party of feminists, anti-semite, ethnic minorities and miners. Working class white can't afford another recession. Shy tories are always a great wall which only Blair managed to breach. Most of my friends switched to tories in their mid thirties. Most of them not interested to pay more taxes under corbyn. I am still stuck with Labour in safe tory seat. Here I'm an alien as Labour are not even campaigning in local elections in my place as they have slim chances. Every 10 years, I'm seeing 25+ year labour voters gradually turning blue in their mid to late thirties. Labour has to reinvent itself. Blair is not the solution, but the way he demolished tory machinery is a lesson labour could emulate. 

Are most of your friends who switched to tories, homeowners?  That's whats significantly different this time around.  I doubt any tax cuts or holds will help priced out renters as things stand.

But yes I do agree, reflecting on Blair's win may help here.  

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From the OP, Labour already hold 44% = 28 of those marginals. Even if they gain ALL of the other 32, they still need another 30 on top to have a majority [and not lose any they have already].

I spent the blanket news soundbites of Corbyn will be doing this that and the other last week thinking how on earth are they going to get a majority?

Surely, unless they get a coalition with SNP it aint happenning?

This is also ignoring the likelihood that libdems will finally be forgiven for their betrayals in Cameron-1 and gain a few [only a few because they're crap too so probably not enough to hold balance of power].

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On 28/09/2018 at 14:00, dougless said:

The good news keeps on coming.  We could be looking at the death of the Tory party.

Six years ago I would have been aghast at the mere thought of the Tory party self destructing. Now, I would welcome it, albeit with the caveat that I would like to see it resurrected when the last of the "Cameroons" have left the building. 

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34 minutes ago, winkie said:

Renters in marginal constituencies have abandoned the Tories

 

What has marginal got to do with anything?;)

Agreed.  IF renters abandon the Tories across the board then many otherwise 'safe' seats will suddenly find themselves becoming 'marginal' or changing colour easily.

My only ongoing bemusement is how it has taken under 35's so long to 'do the maths' and 'wake up'/realise that everything the tories have done to supposedly aid home ownership (even if well intentioned) has merely increased prices and longer term debt burdens, etc.

Though I would also rank a close second the profound inability for so many Tory party supporters, activists, etc to see the electoral earthquake that is coming - in large part because of how they have allowed house prices to rise above earnings for so long and be so socially destructive.

Edited by anonguest

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6 hours ago, ebull said:

This is also ignoring the likelihood that libdems will finally be forgiven for their betrayals in Cameron-1 and gain a few [only a few because they're crap too so probably not enough to hold balance of power].

Most LibDem target seats are places where they are competing with Tories e.g. SW England. There aren't many Lab-LibDem contests.

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I don't hold out much hope with the Tories either but what exactly is Labour going to do to deal with the housing crisis? Labour runs housing in London - they can't get the cash out the door and developers are just carrying on as before focusing on profitability not volume.

Still I suppose a Corbyn government is more likely to cause a house price crash in the short term.

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20 hours ago, BorrowToLeech said:

I agree with the basic idea, but not with this bit. 

The parliamentary Conservative party more or less abandoned conservatism in favour of neoliberalism some time in the late seventies, that much is true. 

However, the homeowning democracy is a conservative idea. It is not a neoliberal idea. 

To a neoliberal, it doesn’t matter whether you own your own home, it only matters that it is decided by a market. It doesn’t matter if you might lose your home at a moments notice, as long as the market chooses then it must be the right choice. It certainly doesn’t matter if you don’t know your neighbours or if everyone around you is rootless and transient, because communities and societies don’t exist anyway.

It doesn’t even matter if the market has to be imposed by the state, so long as it is, superficially, a market.

Markets can never be wrong, and so any ‘housing crisis’ is actually the optimal state of affairs, that results from people’s individual choices not to buy homes, or not to build homes, or whatever.  If not, then the only other possible explanation is that someone has been meddling with the perfection of the market.

This is in absolute contradiction with conservative ideology, in which home ownership is a good in its own right, since it gives people a stake in society and helps to create stable families and stable communities.   If the market is interfering, negatively, with traditional society, then damn the market.  Sure, the working classes might need the beneficence of a caring landlord, but they can aspire to homeownership if they work hard enough.

Of course, conservatives are often deeply hypocritical, and real conservative politics generally means reinforcing existing wealth and power.  In particular, British conservatism is, historically, the ideology of the landlord.  The ideology followed backwards from the belief that the landed gentry were magical.

Nevertheless, there is such a thing as a conservative philosophy, divorced from the usual corruption.  It does have some valid arguments, and they are probably more widely believed amongst the electorate than neoliberalism ever was.

Homeownership really is a conservative ideal, and neoliberalism has killed it.  But this is also true of other conservative ideals such as family, community and stability in general.

 

Thanks for your considered response, and yes, I agree with you that homeownership certainly fits better with traditional conservatism than neoliberalism (and certainly socialism), but as you say, traditional British conservatism is closely aligned with the interests of a landowner class, so on the face of it, encouraging the masses to own their own homes runs contrary to that.

I’d say mass homeownership was a pact between conservatives and neoliberals to smash collectivist ideals and fight against socialism as a common enemy. As a voter, if you had a skin in the game in the form of your most financially and emotionally important asset, then you were more likely to embrace the idea that government should get out of the way and let the market dictate key aspects of social policy. If your neighbour lost their home, well, they were just less hardworking or successful than you, you couldn’t blame government not providing access to affordable housing for that. It was a clear break from the collectivist ideas that gave us council housing for the masses in the post war period.

I agree that mass homeownership has been killed by neoliberalism, and I think once the Conservative party accept this they'll realise they need to turn to more traditional conservative ideas on housing to fight the rise of Corbynism among the next generation of voters.

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20 hours ago, onlooker said:

Please justify why you think you should be entitled to buy a house, when immigrant workers are happy to sleep, perhaps, six to a room?

Sorry, I have no idea what you’re on about mate. Where exactly do I say I think I (or anyone) should be entitled to buy a house when immigrants are happy to sleep six to a room?

The article is about people turning to Labour precisely because they believe that they will never own their own home, and think Labour offer better policies for them as renters.

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8 hours ago, Ghostly said:

I wouldn't vote for either. I live in a solid Labour area though so I may as well just draw a giant phallus on the ballot paper for all the difference it will make.

Well, you say that but...

https://metro.co.uk/2015/05/09/voter-draws-massive-*****-on-ballot-paper-gets-counted-and-helps-elect-tory-mp-5188845/

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  • 144 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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