Ireland Redux

[darkmarket]

Earlier this year, house prices in Ireland were rising at annual rates >10%. Now they've flatlined:

New data shows house prices nationwide flatline - with a semi-D now beyond reach for ordinary families

• House prices are flatlining in Dublin and Ireland's other cities
• In postcoded Dublin, the price of average three-bed semi showed almost no increase (0.1pc) in the past three months
• Data released today shows average home in Cork city has also stopped increasing in price

..."There is no doubt that the Central Bank [mortgage lending] rules are having an effect in the market, and are achieving what they set out to do in terms of keeping a lid on prices," said REA spokesperson Barry McDonald."

https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/new-data-shows-house-prices-nationwide-flatline-with-a-semid-now-beyond-reach-for-ordinary-families-37346952.html

Making this thread for things related to Part II of the Irish Crash.

[darkmarket]

Irish house prices are heading for ‘soft landing’ - S&P

But ‘strong growth’ is still predicted until supply catches up with demand around 2021 ratings agency says

...It was famously promised more than 10 years ago, as politicians, economists, and even the then Governor of the Central Bank asserted that growth in the then bubbly housing market would ease off rather than decline. Of course it eventually fell off a cliff.

Now S&P has come out and forecast another soft landing for the Irish market

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/irish-house-prices-are-heading-for-soft-landing-s-p-1.3616705

[spyguy]

3 hours ago, darkmarket said:

Irish house prices are heading for ‘soft landing’ - S&P

But ‘strong growth’ is still predicted until supply catches up with demand around 2021 ratings agency says

...It was famously promised more than 10 years ago, as politicians, economists, and even the then Governor of the Central Bank asserted that growth in the then bubbly housing market would ease off rather than decline. Of course it eventually fell off a cliff.

Now S&P has come out and forecast another soft landing for the Irish market

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/irish-house-prices-are-heading-for-soft-landing-s-p-1.3616705

No.

Ireland faces theECB cathcing up with the FED.

Theres' no QE/low IR cover from ECB.

[darkmarket]

2 minutes ago, spyguy said:

No.

Ireland faces theECB cathcing up with the FED.

Theres' no QE/low IR cover from ECB.

I linked to the S&P forecast because it's a familiar moment in the transition from bubble to crash, as they're forced to acknowledge. It seems the financial institutions and media follow the same gradual escalation, trying to anchor expectations as high as possible, even as the cracks become more visible.

Quite agree Ireland's central bank is powerless to react, and the ECB is almost as impotent.

[Locke]

4 hours ago, darkmarket said:

Irish house prices are heading for ‘soft landing’ - S&P

Wishful thinking.

[Ah-so]

8 hours ago, darkmarket said:

I linked to the S&P forecast because it's a familiar moment in the transition from bubble to crash, as they're forced to acknowledge. It seems the financial institutions and media follow the same gradual escalation, trying to anchor expectations as high as possible, even as the cracks become more visible.

Quite agree Ireland's central bank is powerless to react, and the ECB is almost as impotent.

The language is familiar but is Dublin back in bubble territory? Stasis may be the correct value.

[dugsbody]

Ireland came out of recession after a period of austerity, came off the back of a proper house price crash, the ECB base rate was low, and they re-introduced mortgage deductions from rental income for landlords. It was always going to result in a massive HPI. 

[cashinmattress]

Ireland is full of 'property developers'. I can smell tem at 1000 yards and they get my hackles up immediately... fyi i have family in the republic.

[hurlerontheditch]

2 minutes ago, cashinmattress said:

Ireland is full of 'property developers'. I can smell tem at 1000 yards and they get my hackles up immediately... fyi i have family in the republic.

exactly...

[darkmarket]

17 minutes ago, cashinmattress said:

Ireland is full of 'property developers'. I can smell tem at 1000 yards and they get my hackles up immediately

These are the ones that think they've seen it before and can get out before it's too late. We'll see how they get on soon enough.

[cashinmattress]

1 hour ago, darkmarket said:

These are the ones that think they've seen it before and can get out before it's too late. We'll see how they get on soon enough.

The 'smart' ones never use their own money.

[darkmarket]

2 hours ago, cashinmattress said:

The 'smart' ones never use their own money.

That much debt can also be a risky strategy though. Actually much of Ireland's house price inflation since 2008 has come from cash buyers and real estate investment trusts, there's quite a bit of real capital underlying the lending.

[darkmarket]

From 10-15% increases a year ago, Ireland has now had two months of drops:

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-rppi/residentialpropertypriceindexdecember2018/residentialpropertypriceindexdecember2018/

The eurozone is crashing hard, and yet again Ireland is the biggest bubble.

[jimmy2x3]

ireland has never recovered fully from the crash yet. not even close. most of the country is still less than half the bubble price. i have family all over ireland and none are close to getting back to where it was. 

 

just as an example an uncle moved to avan, bought a house for 110k in a small town (bailliborough) 9 years ago  it was valued at 27k 3 years later today hes selling it for 38k. 

this is not uncommon. dublin may have recovered but most of the rest of the country has not. they overbuilt there and there is property everywhere empty and abandoned. 

Edited February 15, 2019 by jimmy2x3

[hurlerontheditch]

2 hours ago, jimmy2x3 said:

ireland has never recovered fully from the crash yet. not even close. most of the country is still less than half the bubble price. i have family all over ireland and none are close to getting back to where it was. 

 

just as an example an uncle moved to avan, bought a house for 110k in a small town (bailliborough) 9 years ago  it was valued at 27k 3 years later today hes selling it for 38k. 

this is not uncommon. dublin may have recovered but most of the rest of the country has not. they overbuilt there and there is property everywhere empty and abandoned. 

Dublin has gone crazy. Queues outside house viewings. All these social media companies creating jobs only in Dublin. Not sure where the workers will live 

[darkmarket]

3 hours ago, jimmy2x3 said:

ireland has never recovered fully from the crash yet. not even close. most of the country is still less than half the bubble price. i have family all over ireland and none are close to getting back to where it was. 

 

just as an example an uncle moved to avan, bought a house for 110k in a small town (bailliborough) 9 years ago  it was valued at 27k 3 years later today hes selling it for 38k. 

this is not uncommon. dublin may have recovered but most of the rest of the country has not. they overbuilt there and there is property everywhere empty and abandoned. 

Your uncle paid a crazy price, it's no wonder he can't find a greater fool, but since wages haven't gone up by ~40% in that time he's still getting off lightly.

I don't understand the argument that it's not a bubble unless prices are at 2007 levels. There's still a huge amount of bad debt on the books from that time, plus billions added since.

[jimmy2x3]

12 hours ago, darkmarket said:

Your uncle paid a crazy price, it's no wonder he can't find a greater fool, but since wages haven't gone up by ~40% in that time he's still getting off lightly.

I don't understand the argument that it's not a bubble unless prices are at 2007 levels. There's still a huge amount of bad debt on the books from that time, plus billions added since.

my uncle paid what was the going rate at the time. im making the point that though prices may have recovered somewhat they are no where near what they were at the bust. one look on daft.ie shows that most of the country is still in the crash zone. ireland had a proper crash the uk hasint had that yet we kept kicking the can. ireland had the situation that we dont of over building, no way to internally tweak intrest rates to suit, though eu did that for them anyway and the fact the irish took to poperty as a get rich scheme they way you see many chinese and pakistanis do. 

i prefer irelands boom and bust to the uks one, here they have destroyed a whole generations chance of getting a home. 

[bear.getting.old]

On 15/02/2019 at 18:32, jimmy2x3 said:

this is not uncommon. dublin may have recovered but most of the rest of the country has not. they overbuilt there and there is property everywhere empty and abandoned. 

Have you read the reports? Even in Donegal prices are way up on the bottom. Though not at bubble levels.

"The region outside of Dublin that saw the largest rise in property prices was the Mid-West at 18.7%" It's catching up.

"Overall, the national index is 18.0% lower than its highest level in 2007. Dublin residential property prices are 21.4% lower than their February 2007 peak, while residential property prices in the Rest of Ireland are 22.0% lower than their May 2007 peak."

Only in Ireland would they have overbuilt, creating ghost estates and then bulldozed them. Then complain about a shortage of housing.

The danger for Ireland is its ratio of debt to GDP. That debt hasn't gone away but everyone seems to be acting like it has. Austerity is out of the window and nurses are out on strike for higher pay. Even Tesco workers have been striking.

Edited February 16, 2019 by bear.getting.old

[jimmy2x3]

17 hours ago, bear.getting.old said:

Have you read the reports? Even in Donegal prices are way up on the bottom. Though not at bubble levels.

"The region outside of Dublin that saw the largest rise in property prices was the Mid-West at 18.7%" It's catching up.

"Overall, the national index is 18.0% lower than its highest level in 2007. Dublin residential property prices are 21.4% lower than their February 2007 peak, while residential property prices in the Rest of Ireland are 22.0% lower than their May 2007 peak."

Only in Ireland would they have overbuilt, creating ghost estates and then bulldozed them. Then complain about a shortage of housing.

The danger for Ireland is its ratio of debt to GDP. That debt hasn't gone away but everyone seems to be acting like it has. Austerity is out of the window and nurses are out on strike for higher pay. Even Tesco workers have been striking.

yes i read it, and pretty much says what i posted. prices are up but nowhere near what they were before. the prices i posted about my uncles house are pretty much spot on,  id say prices in ureland outside dublin and a few choice places are sitting about half what the reached in the boom times. going by that i just see a market that swung far to high then swung far to low. just now is about the level ie i can buy  2/3 bed house all over ireland for between 60-100k just now. ( ech side of that obviously has its few exceptions like some homes in roscommon or others in swords)  but these are half if even less than the bubble. and there are still many ghost estates lying half build or half empty that are run through the auctions still not finding any buyers. that national average level is veing distorted by dublin as it allways is. dublin rises far quicker and far sooner than the rest of the country, once dublim prices start to become unrealistic the bubble start stretching out, but as of this point prices have just lifted a bit off a very low bottom. 18% up in donegal dont make up for 180% down. i also dont like the averages of 22% off the peak in the article, i guarrantee they figures are completely false most likely skewed by the fact on choice properties are selling while half the country is boarded up and empty. irelands population would need to increase by about 2 million people to put the same kind of pressure on its market as we have in mainland uk. 

 

edit. as for donegal. i like donegal one of the best places to holiday in ireland, though  understand its employment there that keeps the prices low. 

Edited February 17, 2019 by jimmy2x3

[bear.getting.old]

4 hours ago, jimmy2x3 said:

.... properties are selling while half the country is boarded up and empty. irelands population would need to increase by about 2 million people to put the same kind of pressure on its market as we have in mainland uk. 

edit. as for donegal. i like donegal one of the best places to holiday in ireland, though  understand its employment there that keeps the prices low. 

That is a bit misleading. In bigger towns and cities all those empty houses that were hanging around are now occupied. Rural Ireland still has plenty of houses though. There is housing pressure in places where there are rent controls for the reasons of over population due to work there. Spot on about Donegal

[MARTINX9]

On 15/02/2019 at 18:32, jimmy2x3 said:

ireland has never recovered fully from the crash yet. not even close. most of the country is still less than half the bubble price. i have family all over ireland and none are close to getting back to where it was. 

 

just as an example an uncle moved to avan, bought a house for 110k in a small town (bailliborough) 9 years ago  it was valued at 27k 3 years later today hes selling it for 38k. 

this is not uncommon. dublin may have recovered but most of the rest of the country has not. they overbuilt there and there is property everywhere empty and abandoned. 

Totally agree. I have recently inherited a share of a house from a relative in rural south west Ireland and it is valued at barely half what it was worth 10 years ago. But if anyone wants to buy a 3 bed detached house for 70,000 euro do let me know - it looks over green fields and the nearest house is over half a mile away. And a mere 30 mins drive from an airport with daily flights to Luton, Frankfurt, Stansted and Dublin!!

Property buying processes in Ireland are very slow with probate taking up to 5 months and more for inheritances let alone some of the legal requirements - the local authority search doesn't operate in the same way as here as you have to approach the local council for various bits of paperwork separately re water, roads, sewage, septic tanks etc etc.

Edited February 17, 2019 by MARTINX9

[dryrot]

irish hpc site.... https://thepropertypin.com/ 

[2buyornot2buy]

On 15/02/2019 at 22:04, darkmarket said:

Your uncle paid a crazy price, it's no wonder he can't find a greater fool, but since wages haven't gone up by ~40% in that time he's still getting off lightly.

I don't understand the argument that it's not a bubble unless prices are at 2007 levels. There's still a huge amount of bad debt on the books from that time, plus billions added since.

This. It's the same attitude in the North. Massive increases relative to earnings since the cash, but commenters says it's still not bubbling prices. Well guess what. The bubble was insane now the prices rises now are mental. 

[bear.getting.old]

North where? NI or Rep of Ireland.?

[hurlerontheditch]

was in ireland at the weekend visiting friends. drove by these two new estates being built and the showhouses were open.

 

popped in to have a look. all sold except 2 that came back on the market. the sales guys were treating it like shooting fish in a barrel and there was a steady flow of panicked looking people coming in to look. the prices have gone up by 25k in a month!

the boom time is back ?