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Land Registry in July +1.2%


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4 hours ago, lostinessex said:

OK a big monthly leap but note the YoY is slightly down even so - from 3.2 to 3.1

As long as that figure keeps edging down I'm happy - and I live in the South East so the regional YoY is actually 1.8%. It's getting to the stage where my savings are growing faster than house prices.

I can only see things getting tougher for the housing market in the coming months - keep the faith!

I'm in South East... Transactions down 25% yoy!

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Within a three-mile radius of where I used to live, reductions are currently running at nearly 41% which is the highest level for the three years that I've been gathering data for. Also the number of houses for sale is the highest for three years.

on the 20th Sept 2016 there were 438 houses for sale in this area with 34% reduced.

On the 23rd Sept 2017 (I don't look EVERY day!) there were 446 houses for sale with 30% reduced.

On the 20th Sep 2018 there are 530 houses for sale with 40.75% reduced.

Of course that just proves that the asking prices were too high and Righmove data will be accordingly bullish.

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The Rightmove data, Halifax data, Land Registry data here and today's retail data have combined to convince me this is another debt surge, which is slowing down the falls in house prices and holding GDP >0. I don't think it'll affect the outcome except to make it a more extreme correction, but it seems to be affecting timing already.

God know what'll happen to the debt being extended at this point, far beyond even the Church of England.

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11 minutes ago, darkmarket said:

The Rightmove data, Halifax data, Land Registry data here and today's retail data have combined to convince me this is another debt surge, which is slowing down the falls in house prices and holding GDP >0. I don't think it'll affect the outcome except to make it a more extreme correction, but it seems to be affecting timing already.

God know what'll happen to the debt being extended at this point, far beyond even the Church of England.

the powers that be will keep spinning the debt plates as long as they can, probably longer than most of us want

Edited by hurlerontheditch
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18 minutes ago, darkmarket said:

The Rightmove data, Halifax data, Land Registry data here and today's retail data have combined to convince me this is another debt surge, which is slowing down the falls in house prices and holding GDP >0. I don't think it'll affect the outcome except to make it a more extreme correction, but it seems to be affecting timing already.

God know what'll happen to the debt being extended at this point, far beyond even the Church of England.

What is the source of this additional debt surge, beyond what's already in place?

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Just now, hurlerontheditch said:

the powers that be will keep spinning the debt plates as long as they can, probably longer than most of us want

It's really not possible to extend indefinitely, this must be horrific junk debt at this point. Since that kind of end-of-cycle behaviour never lasts long, the cost-benefit, even in terms of time, is fairly easy.

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Just now, darkmarket said:

It's really not possible to extend indefinitely, this must be horrific junk debt at this point. Since that kind of end-of-cycle behaviour never lasts long, the cost-benefit, even in terms of time, is fairly easy.

agreed but a lot have been saying for a few years now that they cant continue to print money etc. however they will if they have to.

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Just now, rantnrave said:

What is the source of this additional debt surge, beyond what's already in place?

FIs still have access to funds and rates secured under the post-Brexit stimulus, I don't see any need to search for more sources of capital. The Prudential Regulatory Authority is no doubt on top of the risk management.

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1 minute ago, hurlerontheditch said:

agreed but a lot have been saying for a few years now that they cant continue to print money etc. however they will if they have to.

They can and they will, anyone who denies that is having trouble accepting reality. The only question is how and when it stops working, or when some force majeure brings it to an end.

Given the latter is happening thanks to the Fed, the former isn't really important unless you're considering an immediate purchase.

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6 minutes ago, rantnrave said:

What is the source of this additional debt surge, beyond what's already in place?

Mansion house speech was a clear signal to banks that the BoE has got their backs covered if they lend. £1.2bn already that can go up to £5bn leveraged 150x to £750bn. That leverage ratio is worse than Northern Rock and it's the BoE lending money that isn't their own and bypasses the Treasury.  £750bn that can be recycled as loans are paid then new ones taken out. HPC needs a credit crunch, where does it come from now?

Quote

 

The Bank of England has been handed vast new powers to pump money into Britain’s banks without sign-off from the Treasury.

Philip Hammond, the Chancellor, is giving the Bank an extra £1.2bn in a capital injection which officials can then leverage up to give out loans totalling more than £750bn.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2018/06/21/chancellor-unveils-new-powers-bank-england/

 

 

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8 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

HPC needs a credit crunch, where does it come from now?

Every time a credit crunch occurs, it starts with banks lending according to stricter standards and always in an environment of rising rates. The standards can come from within or from regulators, the rates from central banks obviously. A subsequent fall in asset prices leads to a vicious circle.

In this instance, it comes from the US via emerging markets.

 

 

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On ‎19‎/‎09‎/‎2018 at 18:35, Ghostly said:

Volumes continue to shit the bed.

Very apt for the housing crisis. Nobody in power wants to clean up the mess!

 

 

On ‎19‎/‎09‎/‎2018 at 13:03, doomed said:

As a Muppet that just exchanged today I can see only one way that houses fall significantly and that is the credit taps get turned off. I  just can't see that happening in the world of QE. Also where else would you put the money that is not equally as likely to suffer losses.

 

I think it's a reasonable point of view. I'd probably just suggest you view it probabilistically. Never believe the future level of asset prices is obvious.

Also I think equities will perform better than residential property. In the long run this is pretty much guaranteed. In the short run, two big advantage are liquidity and very low transaction costs.

If you own property but also have a fair chunk in other asset classes you probably have a fairly balanced portfolio. Most people have this through a pension even if they have no other savings.

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Yesterday's Sunday Times Money reported most banks have reduced mortgage rates since the last base rate increase:

  • Barclays 2yr fix from 1.66% to 1.59%
  • HSBC 2yr fix from 1.89% to 1.79%
  • Coventry, TSB cuts
  • Average 2yr fix from 2.53% to 2.51%
  • Average 5yr fix from 2.93% to 2.92%

Pretty clear there's no shortage of cheap money.

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3 hours ago, darkmarket said:

Yesterday's Sunday Times Money reported most banks have reduced mortgage rates since the last base rate increase:

  • Barclays 2yr fix from 1.66% to 1.59%
  • HSBC 2yr fix from 1.89% to 1.79%
  • Coventry, TSB cuts
  • Average 2yr fix from 2.53% to 2.51%
  • Average 5yr fix from 2.93% to 2.92%

Pretty clear there's no shortage of cheap money.

But what about the arrangement fees?

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On 20/09/2018 at 16:57, the_duke_of_hazzard said:

Jesus, London transaction numbers in London are a holocaust. And that was in May - I think it's got worse since then.

To buy, people have to be ready, willing and able.....the willing are not able, the able don't like the thought that their speculative investment might not keep up with inflation or currency value, the ready are waiting to see how uncertain future changes will pan out......those that don't have to buy are not at the moment buying......no rush, other opportunities out there.;)

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  • 433 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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