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ItalianV6

Land Registry in July +1.2%

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25 minutes ago, ItalianV6 said:

Have not got time to read.. but quite simply FU**

Please someone tell me this comes from a very low turn over of houses.

Would you really be paying more for a home today than in any time in history with the possible major problems heading our way 

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Just now, inbruges said:

Have not got time to read.. but quite simply FU**

Please someone tell me this comes from a very low turn over of houses.

Would you really be paying more for a home today than in any time in history with the possible major problems heading our way 

I know someone who is an economist at a university and he has just bought! 6 figure sum. I would say people cant be thinking about what they are doing, the economic and political climate etc, but an economist? The world's gone mad, or a small minority have, Im hoping its the latter. 

Numbers: Drop of 10+% compared with last year by the way. It's creaking to a standstill. only the muppets (and economists) left in the game

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6 minutes ago, Trump Invective said:

I know someone who is an economist at a university and he has just bought! 6 figure sum. I would say people cant be thinking about what they are doing, the economic and political climate etc, but an economist? The world's gone mad, or a small minority have, Im hoping its the latter. 

Numbers: Drop of 10+% compared with last year by the way. It's creaking to a standstill. only the muppets (and economists) left in the game

Ha sounds your economist friend is a true believer in ever continuing expansion and growth forever........ not sure I'd like to be in his delusional economics class and paying 9 grand a year to listen to his made up BS. 

The whole thing now is so ridiculous it's truly staggering, who the hell is buying into this market? It's quite an interesting narrative in the media taking shape now on housing in the UK. Vested interests are just hoping things will go away if they keep putting out the message through the media that house prices going up is good for everyone. It's got to be an equivalent with the Soviets 5 year plans of ever increasing harvests when the people are standing in line for bread all day in empty supermarkets.  

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8 minutes ago, Philby1 said:

 It's got to be an equivalent with the Soviets 5 year plans of ever increasing harvests when the people are standing in line for bread all day in empty supermarkets.  

I love your analogy; absolutely spot-on.

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OK a big monthly leap but note the YoY is slightly down even so - from 3.2 to 3.1

As long as that figure keeps edging down I'm happy - and I live in the South East so the regional YoY is actually 1.8%. It's getting to the stage where my savings are growing faster than house prices.

I can only see things getting tougher for the housing market in the coming months - keep the faith!

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36 minutes ago, Philby1 said:

Ha sounds your economist friend is a true believer in ever continuing expansion and growth forever........ not sure I'd like to be in his delusional economics class and paying 9 grand a year to listen to his made up BS. 

The whole thing now is so ridiculous it's truly staggering, who the hell is buying into this market? It's quite an interesting narrative in the media taking shape now on housing in the UK. Vested interests are just hoping things will go away if they keep putting out the message through the media that house prices going up is good for everyone. It's got to be an equivalent with the Soviets 5 year plans of ever increasing harvests when the people are standing in line for bread all day in empty supermarkets.  

I know nothing about his work, but expect he is a centrist Blairite third way "to the moon" type. I expect he approves of the props that have enabled him to buy at such a ridiculously high price.

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Not really a surprise to see the annual level fall whilst the overall price ticks up. I've said i for a while long term houses aren't going to go up much more although the powers that be will throw the kitchen sink at it to avoid a crash on their watch. For this reason combined with all the props on the proptastic thread it is no surprise we aren't seeing falls yet. If a recession comes and they don't go printy printy this time then maybe we will see falls but i am not that optomistic. Despite @spyguy insistance that the BoE cannot keep interest rates low for long few i speak to expect them to rise and to be fair the FED has been raising rates for 2 years now and have barely moved perhaps they could be right.

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1 minute ago, Pebbles said:

Not really a surprise to see the annual level fall whilst the overall price ticks up. I've said i for a while long term houses aren't going to go up much more although the powers that be will throw the kitchen sink at it to avoid a crash on their watch. For this reason combined with all the props on the proptastic thread it is no surprise we aren't seeing falls yet. If a recession comes and they don't go printy printy this time then maybe we will see falls but i am not that optomistic. Despite @spyguy insistance that the BoE cannot keep interest rates low for long few i speak to expect them to rise and to be fair the FED has been raising rates for 2 years now and have barely moved perhaps they could be right.

Youre fighting the last war.

united-kingdom-mortgage-approvals.png?s=

 

 

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England's regional breakdown: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/uk-house-price-index-england-july-2018/uk-house-price-index-england-july-2018

Some London outskirts are falling.

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1 hour ago, Trump Invective said:

I know someone who is an economist at a university and he has just bought! 6 figure sum. I would say people cant be thinking about what they are doing, the economic and political climate etc, but an economist? The world's gone mad, or a small minority have, Im hoping its the latter. 

Numbers: Drop of 10+% compared with last year by the way. It's creaking to a standstill. only the muppets (and economists) left in the game

As a Muppet that just exchanged today I can see only one way that houses fall significantly and that is the credit taps get turned off. I  just can't see that happening in the world of QE. Also where else would you put the money that is not equally as likely to suffer losses.

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1 hour ago, spyguy said:

Youre fighting the last war.

united-kingdom-mortgage-approvals.png?s=

 

 

image.thumb.png.3eaefaa981860bcdfb5aad2ba79404a4.png

Anybody see any correlation here?

Should tell anyone what they want to know about the main causes behind the predicament we're in now. What amazes me is that even with QE+++ and £B's thrown at the British public, mortgage approvals since GFC are pretty much half what they were previous 10 years.

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Would obviously prefer to see the use of the negative sign but the figure is not totally unexpected given the other indices e.g  Nationwide and Halifax. 

I suspect indices to be volatile with an overall trend downwards until we have a some trigger when falls will be meaty.

At that point we will say: "Asset prices. Meet reality." And asset prices will say:"Reality! Haven't seen you in AGES."

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1 hour ago, spyguy said:

Youre fighting the last war.

united-kingdom-mortgage-approvals.png?s=

 

 

Maybe it's because the air is stuffy, but I am not getting your meaning. Would you kindly explain?

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6 minutes ago, Locke said:

Maybe it's because the air is stuffy, but I am not getting your meaning. Would you kindly explain?

Poster was looking for price falls.

The yare unlikely to see them whilst IRs remain low.

However ..... trasnaction have fallen off a cliff. In my northern area house trasnactions are ~30% of what oud expect, goig b ythe last 40 odd years data.

And these are mainly idiots buying holiday lets.

The nationwide figures - see above - are going to be about about 30% BTL idiots (still) and 30% HTB.

The number of people buying OO property is going to be tiny.

Whys that matter?

MMR sets the exit price very low - well, 4x household income minus regular spend.

Going by the low transaction figures, ther must be about 5-10 years of transaction that ought to have happened but didnt - people not selling up as 'IR are low' people renting the old place and buying a new place, idiots doing IO BTL. etc etc.

As mortgage costs rise these positions will no longer be viable, so theyll have to sell. Adn the buyets? a couple under 45, with student debt and only earning sod all.

 

 

 

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4 minutes ago, spyguy said:

Poster was looking for price falls.

The yare unlikely to see them whilst IRs remain low.

However ..... trasnaction have fallen off a cliff. In my northern area house trasnactions are ~30% of what oud expect, goig b ythe last 40 odd years data.

And these are mainly idiots buying holiday lets.

The nationwide figures - see above - are going to be about about 30% BTL idiots (still) and 30% HTB.

The number of people buying OO property is going to be tiny.

Whys that matter?

MMR sets the exit price very low - well, 4x household income minus regular spend.

Going by the low transaction figures, ther must be about 5-10 years of transaction that ought to have happened but didnt - people not selling up as 'IR are low' people renting the old place and buying a new place, idiots doing IO BTL. etc etc.

As mortgage costs rise these positions will no longer be viable, so theyll have to sell. Adn the buyets? a couple under 45, with student debt and only earning sod all.

 

 

 

Thanks for taking the time!

What relevance did the number of mortgages approved have to that?

Also, based on the Fed Funds Rate posted by Smiley George, we're what, 2-3 years away? Pretty astounding that it looks like that is the one thing which crystallised the 07 crisis!

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Up 0.6% or whatever doesn't mean up in quality of life, health, education or prosperity.....can we have those statistics please....the stuff that matters. ;)

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In my part of the world it feels like the boom times are only just starting... record high asking prices being met in record quick time for the most part.

 

 Also huge amounts of building going on, especially noticeable is the number part finished developments that had been mothballed (for several years in most cases) have all sprung back to life this summer.

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26 minutes ago, Locke said:

Thanks for taking the time!

What relevance did the number of mortgages approved have to that?

Also, based on the Fed Funds Rate posted by Smiley George, we're what, 2-3 years away? Pretty astounding that it looks like that is the one thing which crystallised the 07 crisis!

People die, people go bust, people get divorced - the three Ds that drive the housing market, as well as kids being born.

Mr + Mrs YoungKid need a house.

Mrs Dead's son needs to shift the probate. A chain forms small house->medium house->big house.

Its the cycle of life!

And it needs mortgage finance to trasnact.

MMR sets very hard limits on 85% of mortgages.

The recived wisom was the housing market needed ~100k mortgages to stoo price falling. Lower IRs, so lower number. But its run into the probate number now.

 

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1 minute ago, nome said:

In my part of the world it feels like the boom times are only just starting... record high asking prices being met in record quick time for the most part.

 

 Also huge amounts of building going on, especially noticeable is the number part finished developments that had been mothballed (for several years in most cases) have all sprung back to life this summer.

Not in mine.

Rightmove market ifo shows transaction prices have not gone anywhere over 10 years.

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40 minutes ago, nome said:

In my part of the world it feels like the boom times are only just starting... record high asking prices being met in record quick time for the most part.

 

 Also huge amounts of building going on, especially noticeable is the number part finished developments that had been mothballed (for several years in most cases) have all sprung back to life this summer.

Where do you live?  Its not like that in the Home Counties where its all getting a bit sticky.

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  • 245 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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