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House prices to plunge 35 per cent in no-deal Brexit

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2 hours ago, rantnrave said:

Comment from an estate agent on Property Industry eye getting positive support:

https://www.propertyindustryeye.com/

Robert May

It is wrong to blame a likely fall in house prices on Brexit, to do so is masking Mr Carney’s failure to increase interest rates in 2014.

The government  and the bank of England have a bit of a quandry, our economy is reliant on the  artificially high value of our property stock but the high value of property is causing a generational disparity between those who own property and those that want to own property.

Interest rates used to be an effective way of controlling the economy but because that control  has been effectively disabled because of the reliance on property values, there is no real control over the economy.  Blame it on Brexit seems to be emerging as a very convenient way of  disguising the fact that our economy has not properly recovered from the crash in 2008.

This.

It is also hypocritical for Carney to blame brexit etc etc

51.9% leave 48.1 remain

Circa 60% households homeowners 40% not

houseprice crash.co.uk exisits so its logical to assume people would like to own.

Ergo no stupid housing bubble = more happy people with status quo = remain vote 

35% seems a bit of a logical figure as this would be about right for the property crash we should have had.

Edited by Fromage Frais

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17 hours ago, Tempus said:

So says Mark Carney. 

"House prices would fall by 35 per cent over three years following a chaotic no-deal Brexit, according to a briefing given by Mark Carney to the cabinet today." https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/house-prices-would-plummet-in-no-deal-brexit-says-carney-csgr9j0hj

Do we believe him on that one? 😏

 

 

Did you believe this guy (50% drops)?

zoopla_static_cms_content_cms_document_a

Brexit is & will be temporary aberration to the market... because of uncertainty etc.. ie: a blip.

As much as you may dislike them.... the folk in parliament will sort things out.

Besides.. nobody should be cheering for a big dive.

You folk will be outbid by cash-rich folk, funds & institutions and they will gobble up massive swathes of property in the UK.

Carney is just grandstanding like the guy above. Further, these figures are for modelling exercises at the BOE.

 

 

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13 hours ago, Bruce Banner said:

Sky News paper reviewer says that a 35% crash in house prices would be seismic, a calamity. LOL

The quadrupling over 10 years was a calamity for many.

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4 minutes ago, darkmarket said:

Apart from the 35% drop in house prices, the model also assumed a base rate increase to 4%. I'm not sure if it then incorporated the impact of that increase into further house price decreases, seems not.

I can't see how base rate would ever reach 4% any time soon.....if it did house price values would be the last of anyone's concerns.;)

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12 hours ago, Kosmin said:

Did anyone in the government call people racist? Maybe you're confusing them with Labour or Lib Dem MPs.

 

Cameron called UKIP closest racists.

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5 minutes ago, hurlerontheditch said:

indeed however not everyone can work from home full time  5 days a week

There are jobs around cheaper gardens.;)

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2 minutes ago, winkie said:

I can't see how base rate would ever reach 4% any time soon.....if it did house price values would be the last of anyone's concerns.;)

You might underestimate how badly the Pound could do in the event of a no-deal exit. Not that one's to be expected, but a weak Pound over the next few years is probably a safe bet, and letting consumers soak it all up can't last forever.

In some senses, Carney and Erdogan are really quite similar.

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Just now, darkmarket said:

You might underestimate how badly the Pound could do in the event of a no-deal exit. Not that one's to be expected, but a weak Pound over the next few years is probably a safe bet, and letting consumers soak it all up can't last forever.

In some senses, Carney and Erdogan are really quite similar.

... interest rates can't really rise... for many reasons. Energy is one of the biggies.

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2 hours ago, hurlerontheditch said:

Love this one....😜

Bluelady Fri 14-Sep-18 12:42:50

We're currently on the market and it's completely dead. Our agent says he's never seen a worse market. There's no confidence and people just aren't moving. There are no FTBs to fuel it. We're resigned to staying put for the foreseeable future.

https://www.mumsnet.com/Talk/property/3365146-Mark-Carney-Brexit-house-price-warning?pg=4

 

 

Edited by eric pebble

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1 minute ago, cashinmattress said:

... interest rates can't really rise... for many reasons. Energy is one of the biggies.

They can't hover around 0 forever either.

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5 minutes ago, darkmarket said:

You might underestimate how badly the Pound could do in the event of a no-deal exit. Not that one's to be expected, but a weak Pound over the next few years is probably a safe bet, and letting consumers soak it all up can't last forever.

In some senses, Carney and Erdogan are really quite similar.

The pound is already weak.....that is why we will have to import from cheaper places (not always better), that is why we will have to start exporting more or as much as we have been importing......that is why the general cost of living has been rising and could well rise further......we will be not be spending as much as we once did on now growing in price imported goods.....that is why we will have to start, learn, or be forced to do things differently.;)

 

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23 minutes ago, cashinmattress said:

Says you.

It's not just me. The economy depends on inflows of foreign capital. Rates are rising internationally, adding to the pressure on the capital that's currently in the country. At some point, the central bank decides to create unemployment.

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39 minutes ago, eric pebble said:

Love this one....😜

Bluelady Fri 14-Sep-18 12:42:50

We're currently on the market and it's completely dead. Our agent says he's never seen a worse market. There's no confidence and people just aren't moving. There are no FTBs to fuel it. We're resigned to staying put for the foreseeable future.

She's probably right about the general economy in this case....but once again people's response to "why isn't my house selling?" is always "X Y Z reason outside my control" and never "my asking price is too high"

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4 hours ago, Bruce Banner said:

BBC News are featuring the 35% crash prediction again this morning.

They just read out a few viewers texts, all said it would be a good thing.

Not that it really means anything as they can pick and chose what they read out but, on the surface, it indicates a change in sentiment.

 

I set off at 5.30am this morning mostly listening to bbc 5 live on the radio.. definate change in tone by the time it got to 07.30 am covering the house prices will drop 35% story where they suddenly over emphasised that it was a very outside chance that this could happen and the had an estate agent calming the listeners down... Carney is a master at this, he tries to convince two groups with to differing scenarios, he will give a "grave warning" that prices could fall while at the same time trying to reassure another group not to worry, he is the classic every thing to every person 

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1 hour ago, cashinmattress said:

You folk will be outbid by cash-rich folk, funds & institutions and they will gobble up massive swathes of property in the UK.

Carney is just grandstanding like the guy above. Further, these figures are for modelling exercises at the BOE.

Because the past will have been a proof that you can't lose with b&m? 

Why would cash rich people/institutions gobble more after a crash than now? 

Cash rich doesn't exist, people are equity/asset rich. When you reach the 100k of financial worth outside of your main home, you are at risk de facto of asset prices correction. So those "cash rich" people will take a beating when the everything bubble collapse. It will allow income earners to beat wealth rich when it comes to acquiring new assets.

Edited by Freki

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3 minutes ago, Freki said:

 

Cash rich doesn't exists, people are equity rich. When you reach the 100k of financial worth outside of your main home, you are at risk de facto of asset prices correction. So those "cash rich" people will take a beating when the everything bubble collapse. It will allow income earners to beat wealth rich when it comes to acquiring new assets.

+1, if they are even that equity rich in the first place. My friend ‘owns’ a £500k house on the face of it, well, about £100k of it as the rest is debt.

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21 minutes ago, Freki said:

Because the past will have been a proof that you can't lose with b&m? 

Why would cash rich people/institutions gobble more after a crash than now? 

Cash rich doesn't exist, people are equity/asset rich. When you reach the 100k of financial worth outside of your main home, you are at risk de facto of asset prices correction. So those "cash rich" people will take a beating when the everything bubble collapse. It will allow income earners to beat wealth rich when it comes to acquiring new assets.

That is how the younger generations with rising incomes should be able to overtake the older asset rich but falling income/cash poor with the rising costs of extra services/help required and costs the of long-term heath care.....life is full of its ups and downs.;)

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6 hours ago, winkie said:

I can't see how base rate would ever reach 4% any time soon.....if it did house price values would be the last of anyone's concerns.;)

 

6 hours ago, darkmarket said:

You might underestimate how badly the Pound could do in the event of a no-deal exit. Not that one's to be expected, but a weak Pound over the next few years is probably a safe bet, and letting consumers soak it all up can't last forever.

In some senses, Carney and Erdogan are really quite similar.

 

6 hours ago, cashinmattress said:

... interest rates can't really rise... for many reasons. Energy is one of the biggies.

Interestingly the Independent are running with this headline:

Quote

Mark Carney, the governor of the Bank of England, has suggested that interest rates may need to rise, rather than fall, in the event of a no-deal Brexit.

..and further:

Quote

The governor had previously seemed to suggest that a no-deal Brexit could result in a rate cut to support the economy by making borrowing cheaper, as occurred after the Brexit referendum in 2016.

But according to reports of a briefing that Mr Carney gave to the cabinet on Thursday, he fears that such a rupture with the EU could represent a severe “contraction of supply” capacity in the UK economy. This could mean that inflation would be in danger of getting out of hand without early rate rises, particularly if sterling plummeted again, pushing up domestic import prices.

So, is the perpetual slasher of IR's just talking up a policy of rate rises that he never plans to take (as he has many times in the past) or is he finally acknowledging / softening us up for the choice having to be made between perpetuating the housing bubble / maintaining ridiculous prices or reigning in rampant inflation?

I don't think significant rate rises are at all out of the question, given the vulnerability of our currency, weak export market, reliance on imports and the general global backdrop of rate rises - in the US especially.

 

6 hours ago, eric pebble said:

Love this one....😜

Bluelady Fri 14-Sep-18 12:42:50

We're currently on the market and it's completely dead. Our agent says he's never seen a worse market. There's no confidence and people just aren't moving. There are no FTBs to fuel it. We're resigned to staying put for the foreseeable future.

https://www.mumsnet.com/Talk/property/3365146-Mark-Carney-Brexit-house-price-warning?pg=4

 

 

Excellent stuff :D
 

6 hours ago, winkie said:

The pound is already weak.....that is why we will have to import from cheaper places (not always better), that is why we will have to start exporting more or as much as we have been importing......that is why the general cost of living has been rising and could well rise further......we will be not be spending as much as we once did on now growing in price imported goods.....that is why we will have to start, learn, or be forced to do things differently.;)

 

Indeed.. the problem is of course that our increasingly consumptive and disposible economy has come to rely on cheap imported goods. In order to make domestically produced goods viable we're going to have to accept a price hike and probably wage cuts.

Either that or we'll have to put up with importing cheaper, more inferior products, again probably at elevated cost.

Edited by ftb_fml

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Sentiment is getting trashed now. Yes the financials and all the other variables are important BUT the market has turned end of. The crash is on. It would take something like HTB on all property now to boost it. Can’t see that happening. It would not create any new council tax income? Would not create jobs? No homes would have guarantees? It would not line the pockets of party donors? or house builders? tamp duty contribution? Done that not going to help. Interest rate lowered? 0.25% not going to change a thing?

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2 hours ago, iamnumerate said:

Cameron called UKIP closest racists.

Cameron isn't in the government and the majority of Brexit voters weren't UKIP voters.

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11 minutes ago, Kosmin said:

Cameron isn't in the government and the majority of Brexit voters weren't UKIP voters.

He was in it 2.5 years ago but I take your point about the majority of Brexit votes not being UKIP voters.

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Nothing is going to turn this market now other than a good old crash. Some will fold, some will be stuck for 5-10 years but there will be plenty of moving up, downsizing, new buyers....

Good times ahead! 

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7 minutes ago, ftb_fml said:

 

Indeed.. the problem is of course that our increasingly consumptive and disposible economy has come to rely on cheap imported goods. In order to make domestically produced goods viable we're going to have to accept a price hike and probably wage cuts.

Either that or we'll have to put up with importing cheaper, more inferior products, again probably at elevated cost.

How will that work?.......people will not accept wage cuts,  we will need to make more and grow more ourselves to use and to export because a large proportion of our population will may not afford goods of quality made locally......they will only be able to buy the cheap quite probably inferior imports made and grown the other side of the world ( I thought we were trying to reduce air miles carbon emissions, save the planet) .......the wealthy will be able to pick and choose the best of all worlds......perhaps they are only wealthy because they pay too little?.....pricing out their own hard workers, looking to other places of growing wealth to sell to where consumption and waste is growing.;)

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