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rantnrave

Halifax Aug 18 out Fri Sep 7th

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4 minutes ago, rantnrave said:

Another fall to match the Nationwide August figure?

Yup.

Sent as a warning signal to Spreadsheet Phil ahead of the Autumn budget. :ph34r:

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The figures whatever the source are MADE UP to support a narrative IMHO.  They are produced by huge Vested Interests with loads of skin in the game, and huge money for the top man.  They would be fools otherwise.

Until a clinical auduit is carried out there will be the usual reading of the bones, and this madness will continue.

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11 hours ago, rantnrave said:

Another fall to match the Nationwide August figure?

“While the pace of employment growth has recently slowed, a low unemployment rate and a gradual pickup in wage growth are helping to support household finances. This has been accompanied by interest rates still remaining at a historically low rate and a stable, yet constrained, supply of new homes onto the market further supporting house prices"

..........

 

These are the reason they give for why the property market is so insanely high.

They never mentioned a slow and controlled deliberate shortage of house building, mass unwanted immigration, rigged government policies with the sole purpose of keeping prices high as they disingenuosly pretend it is "to help and assist the poor struggling young buyers".

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15 minutes ago, inbruges said:

They never mentioned a slow and controlled deliberate shortage of house building

To be fair, I found "a stable, yet constrained, supply of new homes" surprisingly honest.

Curious about the regional breakdown behind the 1.9% quarterly rise, I can't find a single market that's behaving like that. Even the last remaining inflation areas seem to have passed their peaks now.

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The Tory boys' Socialism for the Rich continues to shower its blessings on the over 65s.

https://www.landlordtoday.co.uk/breaking-news/2018/9/over-65s-have-gained-45-7bn-of-property-wealth-in-a-year

Quote

Retired homeowners have gained £9,744 each on average in property wealth over the past 12 month despite uncertainty in the property market, analysis from over-55s financial specialist Key Retirement reveals.

New data from the independent equity release advisor shows that the average retired homeowner gained £812 a month as pensioner property wealth remained above £1 trillion.

Over-65s in the East Midlands have seen the greatest gains, with their property wealth increasing by almost £1,170 a month.

Pensioners in West Midlands (£1,002), Scotland (£989) and East Anglia (£973) have also seen significant gains. No areas have recorded price falls.

Dean Mirfin, chief product officer at Key Retirement said: “Retired homeowners continue to see the benefits of property investment with average gains of £9,741 in the past year. Whatever the short-term changes in house prices, many over-65s have considerable property wealth which can make a huge contribution not only to their standard of living in retirement but also the financial wellbeing of family members.

“We are seeing an increasing number of customers choosing to gift some or all of the proceeds of equity release to help loved ones in a variety of ways, for some this is helping children or grandchildren take their first step on the housing ladder, for others to pay for expenses such as weddings.

 

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Key Retirement have a clear vested interest in what they're stating, that article is just marketing.  They also have a chunk of my future inheritance after my gullible mother handed them a quarter of her house for a derisory amount.

There should be a requirement for consulting an IFA before signing up to these schemes - they have nice happy telly ads, friendly agents in nice suits - all the sort of thing that persuades the gullible that they're respectable.  It's a massive scam.

They're also indirectly taking money from us all, as their share of the house becomes untouchable for care costs.  So they pay the pensioner, the pensioner spends the money then, if care is needed, the equity in the house can't be touched as the pensioner no longer owns it so the state pays the care costs while the property wealth remains untouched.  It would be much fairer if, as part of these deals, the state's claim on the house took priority so they were forced to take the risk that they could lose the house - that would wipe out this seedy operation.

Sorry... back on topic - those Halifax figures are completely meaningless without a regional breakdown, as nobody knows whether the house they're buying or selling is rising or falling in value.  They're definitely not all rising.

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1 hour ago, zugzwang said:

The Tory boys' Socialism for the Rich continues to shower its blessings on the over 65s.

https://www.landlordtoday.co.uk/breaking-news/2018/9/over-65s-have-gained-45-7bn-of-property-wealth-in-a-year

 

Lol, breaking news , desperate ramping of a dispicable scam more like.

As for over 65s wealth increasing through property, I suspect the vast majority don't give a shit, as they can't do anything with the money except pay for a nursing home.

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13 minutes ago, Oliver Sutton said:

Last month's rise revised down by 0.2%.

How convenient.

Would have been a small fall otherwise.

Indeed, the scam needs a total change of attitude, it's full of immoral spivs 

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3 minutes ago, shatner's bassoon said:

Exhibit A:

There is a massive opportunity for a proper journalist to do an investigation into the various indexes, rather like MP’s expenses, but much bigger numbers and Joe Public likes being thick until their grown children have to move back.  I believe nothing, other than the indexes seem to bear little relevance to what is happening on the ground.

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1 hour ago, hurlerontheditch said:

The market will stay as it is unless the government need to do something to stop it to keep their jobs. 

Absolutely and demographics are a way off yet we can see two generations permanently damaged before we see it being in the governments electoral interest to allow a HPC. Also I don't share the same optimism as some on here i see little sign of transactions (actual completed land registry) here in cambridgeshire reducing in price. Yes plenty of fantasy rightmove listings have been reduced but a rightmove listing doesn't set a house price. I also see little sign of this changing soon Mark carney is to stay on it seems interest rates will remain nailed to the floor and now he can just apply QE whenever he wants as the chancellor has given him permission. New retirement interest only mortgages are appearing and the bank still seem happy ( i have spoken to Nationwide about what they will lend me) to lend me enough to buy a 350k home (absolutely bonkers)

House prices are still according to the Land registry going up (sadly) and we need to accept this and blaming the BBC for reporting a rise seems daft as if they reported a fall they would obviously be lying

Anyway not surprised to see this still going up although the brexit deal and maybe a wider global recession are our best bets for a HPC any time soon anything that takes control from our government and banks hands.

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5 minutes ago, Pebbles said:

Absolutely and demographics are a way off yet we can see two generations permanently damaged before we see it being in the governments electoral interest to allow a HPC. Also I don't share the same optimism as some on here i see little sign of transactions (actual completed land registry) here in cambridgeshire reducing in price. Yes plenty of fantasy rightmove listings have been reduced but a rightmove listing doesn't set a house price. I also see little sign of this changing soon Mark carney is to stay on it seems interest rates will remain nailed to the floor and now he can just apply QE whenever he wants as the chancellor has given him permission. New retirement interest only mortgages are appearing and the bank still seem happy ( i have spoken to Nationwide about what they will lend me) to lend me enough to buy a 350k home (absolutely bonkers)

House prices are still according to the Land registry going up (sadly) and we need to accept this and blaming the BBC for reporting a rise seems daft as if they reported a fall they would obviously be lying

Anyway not surprised to see this still going up although the brexit deal and maybe a wider global recession are our best bets for a HPC any time soon anything that takes control from our government and banks hands.

Totally agree. 

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Lenders, big builder, and HMG have a massive, and sometimes personal, interest in keeping prices high.  The ‘Fuzzy Felt’ BBC is key in stomping this into the brain and supporting the Establishment.

These and nothing but facts.

We should question the accuracy of the data, produced by the V.I.’s, that creates this drum beat to hell.

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53 minutes ago, Freezer? Best place for it said:

Lenders, big builder, and HMG have a massive, and sometimes personal, interest in keeping prices high.  The ‘Fuzzy Felt’ BBC is key in stomping this into the brain and supporting the Establishment. 

These and nothing but facts.

We should question the accuracy of the data, produced by the V.I.’s, that creates this drum beat to hell. 

First sentence agree entirely. Second sentence is probably right but it does seem a bit tin foil hatty.

On the question of the accuracy of the data Are we now questioning the Land registry sold data? Because that isn't showing a fall (3.0 % for June as compared to 3.7% for halifax). I think the Halifax and nationwide data seems broadly accurate given it's limitations (i.e. mortgaged sales only). Rightmove is no better than astrology. Land registry figure (now in the ONS monthly release) is gold standard since all its data points are released too. Although it doesn't take into account house extensions (very few houses reduce their floor space in between sales most increase).

What I am saying is we can question the data certainly, but it isn't far off. Houses are not falling in price yet (nationally) and to say we don't believe the data because it doesn't show what we want it to seems wrong to me.

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8 hours ago, Oliver Sutton said:

Last month's rise revised down by 0.2%.

How convenient.

Would have been a small fall otherwise.

My word, so they get to pump hpi headlines two months in a row for just one basic piece of data. Very dodgy.

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  • 150 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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