Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
dom

One-in-three chance of London house price crash, says expert poll

Recommended Posts

Can we start a sort of Brexit bingo where the number of sentences (in this case, one) before it's mentioned is the lucky number

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Brexit bingo: sounds fun ... but too easy to win you just have to get one of the low numbers.

BTW: what on earth is a "quantum of buyers" and - within that - what does it mean that such "is falling" ...?

From this google I get to at least one possibly relevant definition - but only for a "required amount". If the "required amount [to maintain price stability]" is falling then surely prices would rise?

Estate Agent double speak of the highest (most obfuscated) order.

It would be just as meaningful for me to ask a philosophical question like:

"When I jump in the air and try to throw myself upside down in a forest and there is no one there to see me will I fall?"

Edited by Aidan Ap Word
I looked up alternative definitions for 'quantum'

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest

"Could DRIVE prices down "1.6%"  

It is so laughable, in their little world  where prices only ever go up they see 1.6% over a year as prices being driven down, what strong emotive word. They used nothing as emotive when prices in some places rose 300% in some places and all but the privileged and elite were able to afford to buy.

These are the same type of Guardian and Observer do-gooders who pretend to care about the well off and shed so many crocodile tears, the Emma Thompson and Joan Bakewells of this world, but threaten their housing wealth and watch them turn

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Just seen that on the Independent - who perhaps surprisingly are running with a much more extreme "interpretation":
 

Quote

“We see little upward or downward pressure on house prices at current near-zero interest rates. However, risks lie substantially to the downside,” said Andrew Brigden at Fathom Consulting.

“Were interest rates to return to pre-crisis levels or higher, which may prove necessary if there were a sharp fall in sterling after a General Election, for example, then house prices could fall by around 40 percent.”

 

tbh it's all just as nebulous and speculative as most other stuff in the MSM pertaining to both Brexit and the housing market; although it's another beautifully stark example to add to the growing bearish sentiment in the MSM regarding prices. 

Maybe it's project fear working as intended but I'm increasingly of the opinion that this rotten island won't be worth living on in 10yrs time anyway - certainly seems to be going downhill fast..

Edited by ftb_fml

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
30 minutes ago, inbruges said:

"Could DRIVE prices down "1.6%"  

It is so laughable, in their little world  where prices only ever go up they see 1.6% over a year as prices being driven down, what strong emotive word. They used nothing as emotive when prices in some places rose 300% in some places and all but the privileged and elite were able to afford to buy.

These are the same type of Guardian and Observer do-gooders who pretend to care about the well off and shed so many crocodile tears, the Emma Thompson and Joan Bakewells of this world, but threaten their housing wealth and watch them turn

 

My 'favourite' property writer in the Times (favourite as in the one I most enjoyed  bitching about) used to write about prices 'improving'.  Unknown to me, 'improving' had apparently become synonymous with 'increasing'.  Not sure anyone ever told the OED. 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
32 minutes ago, inbruges said:

"Could DRIVE prices down "1.6%"  

It is so laughable, in their little world  where prices only ever go up they see 1.6% over a year as prices being driven down, what strong emotive word. They used nothing as emotive when prices in some places rose 300% in some places and all but the privileged and elite were able to afford to buy.

These are the same type of Guardian and Observer do-gooders who pretend to care about the well off and shed so many crocodile tears, the Emma Thompson and Joan Bakewells of this world, but threaten their housing wealth and watch them turn

 

Im with you. And fuming. I wonder what the headlines and concern will be like when prices actually do fall.

More anti-HTB from the mail: http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-6107805/Are-developers-inflating-prices-homes-sold-Help-Buy.html

Im thinking the press will publish anything thrown at them by the agencies, good or bad news. When the drops actually start coming through big time, I wonder how much press will be editorial and opinion, and how much straighforward facts/information.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
12 minutes ago, Trump Invective said:

Im with you. And fuming. I wonder what the headlines and concern will be like when prices actually do fall.

More anti-HTB from the mail: http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-6107805/Are-developers-inflating-prices-homes-sold-Help-Buy.html

Im thinking the press will publish anything thrown at them by the agencies, good or bad news. When the drops actually start coming through big time, I wonder how much press will be editorial and opinion, and how much straighforward facts/information.

Can anyone remember that horrible woman Kirstie Alsopp frothing at the mouth red faced  and raging at a certain website that suggested house prices could fall.

Just another thing, you can be sure if 1/3 of "experts" think there will be a crash it is more than likely to be 50% plus

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, inbruges said:

Can anyone remember that horrible woman Kirstie Alsopp frothing at the mouth red faced  and raging at a certain website that suggested house prices could fall.

Just another thing, you can be sure if 1/3 of "experts" think there will be a crash it is more than likely to be 50% plus

The worst thing to me was/is they political acquiescence to this POV. Kirsty was made a housing advisor to David Cameron. Gordon Brown admonished bankers to let off people who didn't pay their mortgages, whilst bailing said banks out with public funds. Theresa May still speaks about the housing ladder like it's a moral concept or something. The collective upper middle class sharp elbowed brainwashing is evil.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, inbruges said:

"Could DRIVE prices down "1.6%"  

It is so laughable, in their little world  where prices only ever go up they see 1.6% over a year as prices being driven down, what strong emotive word. They used nothing as emotive when prices in some places rose 300% in some places and all but the privileged and elite were able to afford to buy.

I'm not sure that's what they mean or what this shows.

There are a lot of factors which affect property prices. Maybe next year prices fall 1.6% due to Brexit, 10% due to landlord sell-off, 2% if interest rates go above 1%, etc. and this is what the people surveyed envisaged by a crash.

This certainly seems like a more sensible view. I wouldn't pay too much attention to estimates of the impact of various factors as there tends to be spurious accuracy. But the list of factors is quite worthwhile.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, ftb_fml said:

“Were interest rates to return to pre-crisis levels or higher, which may prove necessary if there were a sharp fall in sterling after a General Election, for example, then house prices could fall by around 40 percent.”

Here we go. I'm surprised the Guardian haven't included this in their daily Corbyn bashing. The centre of politics, that the MSM represents, is clearly rooted in neoliberal theory. We have seen that the establishment will do whatever it takes to protect capital returns, and have done since the late 70s.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Are these the same experts that predicted the financial crisis??  What were the experts saying in 2007?  A meaningful correction will catch the MSM totally unaware...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, inbruges said:

"Could DRIVE prices down "1.6%"  

It is so laughable, in their little world  where prices only ever go up they see 1.6% over a year as prices being driven down, what strong emotive word. They used nothing as emotive when prices in some places rose 300% in some places and all but the privileged and elite were able to afford to buy.

These are the same type of Guardian and Observer do-gooders who pretend to care about the well off and shed so many crocodile tears, the Emma Thompson and Joan Bakewells of this world, but threaten their housing wealth and watch them turn

 

+1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, Mrs Bear said:

My 'favourite' property writer in the Times (favourite as in the one I most enjoyed  bitching about) used to write about prices 'improving'.  Unknown to me, 'improving' had apparently become synonymous with 'increasing'.  Not sure anyone ever told the OED. 

 

It doesn't surprise me at all, I picked up a copy of the Times earlier in the year and was shocked at how shallow it had become; almost like a 'posh' Sun.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, cashinmattress said:

Two-in-three chance of London boom then?

The absence of a crash isn't a boom. The probability of a crash is debatable, but the ultra-bullish case is that property just about keeps up with inflation. If there's a one in three chance of a crash, there's a roughly two in three chance of prices hardly changing.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • 153 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.