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fru-gal

London - terminal decline?

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Ok, this is a completely anecdotal thread but I have noticed in recently years that London seems to be really declining fast. I live in a "middle class" area with good school and houses that can cost £1 million plus. In the past 6 months there have been 5 break-ins or attempted break-ins in the immediate area surrounding my property alone and the whole area is changing rapidly, lots of moped and opportunistic crime where previously this was rare and there seems to be a lot of churn to the residential make-up (about 30% private renters with a lot of older middle class boomer owner-occupiers). 

The shops are also changing - there is a lot of gentrification but the shops that do well tend to be the large coffee chains, estate agents and charity shops. Other small, independent shops struggle for a few years and are then replaced by other small independent shops (rinse and repeat) that can't compete once they have to pay extortionate rates and rents.

The point is that London feels more hostile, alien and more disparate than it has ever felt and I am a Londoner, born and bred. It seems to be changing very quickly and I can really see London declining even further generally with small middle class areas remaining in the midst of the chaos and sprawl and eventually disappearing once all the boomers have sold/died off. 

What are other Londoners takes on the current state of the Capital? What effect do you think Brexit will have?

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Seems like a fairly balanced analysis fru-gal.  I am not a Londoner but have always lived close enough to pop in for a few hours if needed.  It has changed so much since the 70's that it is really a different place, apart from the obviously touristy bits.  I have long favored provincial towns over London for their general ambience.  London only really seems to make sense for the really, really wealthy.

Regarding Brexit, I am not sure London will notice to begin with unless the UK changes the rules on non UK ownership of property.  The amount of 'banked' property in London is shocking and a simple 10% per annum property tax for foreign owned property would help sort that out.

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32 minutes ago, BorrowToLeech said:

They are called houses. 

+1

Also hate this use of "male" and "female".

No.

Man, woman, boy and girl.

Lads if you're feeling yucky.

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22 minutes ago, Locke said:

 

Man, woman, boy and girl.

 

Bit cis-normative mate

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To be honest, London is something of a "world city" rather than feeling like part of the UK.  In 2011 a staggering 37% of the population of London were born outside of the UK and that surely would be higher now.  In addition, London is very heavily self-segregated into different areas, which means even talking of "London" as a single place doesn't really make sense.

London is a fabulous place to visit for a day or two, but it must be really hard to feel you "belong" there.  Everyone in London seems to be either coming from elsewhere or going elsewhere.

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8 minutes ago, scottbeard said:

To be honest, London is something of a "world city" rather than feeling like part of the UK.  In 2011 a staggering 37% of the population of London were born outside of the UK and that surely would be higher now.  In addition, London is very heavily self-segregated into different areas, which means even talking of "London" as a single place doesn't really make sense.

London is a fabulous place to visit for a day or two, but it must be really hard to feel you "belong" there.  Everyone in London seems to be either coming from elsewhere or going elsewhere.

More than a bit racist mate 

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2 hours ago, fru-gal said:

Ok, this is a completely anecdotal thread but I have noticed in recently years that London seems to be really declining fast. I live in a "middle class" area with good school and houses that can cost £1 million plus. In the past 6 months there have been 5 break-ins or attempted break-ins in the immediate area surrounding my property alone and the whole area is changing rapidly, lots of moped and opportunistic crime where previously this was rare and there seems to be a lot of churn to the residential make-up (about 30% private renters with a lot of older middle class boomer owner-occupiers). 

The shops are also changing - there is a lot of gentrification but the shops that do well tend to be the large coffee chains, estate agents and charity shops. Other small, independent shops struggle for a few years and are then replaced by other small independent shops (rinse and repeat) that can't compete once they have to pay extortionate rates and rents.

The point is that London feels more hostile, alien and more disparate than it has ever felt and I am a Londoner, born and bred. It seems to be changing very quickly and I can really see London declining even further generally with small middle class areas remaining in the midst of the chaos and sprawl and eventually disappearing once all the boomers have sold/died off. 

What are other Londoners takes on the current state of the Capital? What effect do you think Brexit will have?

Very apt post. Drove in to London yesterday afternoon took 35 mins from where we are (South Herts) done it a thousand times. Parked around the back of Harley St again done that a thousand times on a bank holiday.

Wow - London hasn't changed in the last ten years it's changed in the last eighteen months. Totally different and yep hostile and alien. Walking back to the car passed a restaurant opposite the back of House of Fraser. Queues of middle eastern people waiting for it to open and the typical cars lined up BM's - Mercs etc. No one else in the queue, Chinese, Black  Indian or White European. I was bought up in North London so plenty of ethnic diversity amongst my friends (before anyone throws that card out...)

We (Londoners) have sold our soul and frankly don't want much part of it a radical change for me.

 

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I started a threat in Sept 2017 on this subject - "End of the urban revival"...(I don't know how to link another thread?)

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/01/opinion/cities-suburbs-housing-crime.html?mcubz=1

From stateside but relevant to London...flagging enthusiasm for the city...tide turning?  Falling prices in London support this position.  In summary...

"The end of the urban re vival  Writing in the New York Times, eminent urbanist Richard Florida points to the end of the urban revival upon which he based his 2002 work ‘The Rise of the Creative Class’, and which dominates most lazy, modern thinking about Mill ennials and what they want.   Florida cites rising house prices, rising crime and a widen ing wealth gap between established occupants and new comers as driving the reversal of migration into city centres. However, fundamentally, Florida also acknowledges that most people in fact want to live in ‘detached suburban homes’ and these simply don’t exist (either in fact, or at sensible prices) in the world’s major city centres. The facts are undeniable, but there are no easy sol utions. With lengthy and un reliable commutes also becoming un palatable, does this present opportunities for mid-sized towns and emerging suburban centres to re capture young talent? "

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3 hours ago, dougless said:

London only really seems to make sense for the really, really wealthy.

I think that's right...unless perhaps your perspective is that London compares okay with most developing world cities...and therefore you can stick it out.

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1 hour ago, Wayward said:

I started a threat in Sept 2017 on this subject - "End of the urban revival"...(I don't know how to link another thread?)

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/01/opinion/cities-suburbs-housing-crime.html?mcubz=1

From stateside but relevant to London...flagging enthusiasm for the city...tide turning?  Falling prices in London support this position.  In summary...

"The end of the urban re vival  Writing in the New York Times, eminent urbanist Richard Florida points to the end of the urban revival upon which he based his 2002 work ‘The Rise of the Creative Class’, and which dominates most lazy, modern thinking about Mill ennials and what they want.   Florida cites rising house prices, rising crime and a widen ing wealth gap between established occupants and new comers as driving the reversal of migration into city centres. However, fundamentally, Florida also acknowledges that most people in fact want to live in ‘detached suburban homes’ and these simply don’t exist (either in fact, or at sensible prices) in the world’s major city centres. The facts are undeniable, but there are no easy sol utions. With lengthy and un reliable commutes also becoming un palatable, does this present opportunities for mid-sized towns and emerging suburban centres to re capture young talent? "

Yup. I think it could be a real liability to buy in London now. I don't see how it can recover. You could end up paying £800k for a house in an area that is semi-nice now only to see it go rapidly downhill in the next 5-10 years to the extent that it isn't worth a quarter of the price. London won't be recognisable as London by that time, everything is changing so rapidly.

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London prices drove a family member east away from London a couple of years ago, to a much cheaper (but rougher) location.

I have no exact London knowledge but Milton Keynes has been promoted in London as a relocation place for those wanting out of London and we've seen Londoners and their money coming here for 10 years plus now. First to rise were the nice places by the rail station.

Majority of work here is warehousing and service industry (very low unemployment), way out of sync to the house prices locally. The prices are not massive like the scale in London but for local jobs/pay its pretty expensive here.

Head east towards the coast away from London transport links and its a fair bit cheaper, just need to afford the petrol to get to work even local work.

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51 minutes ago, Versys said:

London prices drove a family member east away from London a couple of years ago, to a much cheaper (but rougher) location.

I have no exact London knowledge but Milton Keynes has been promoted in London as a relocation place for those wanting out of London and we've seen Londoners and their money coming here for 10 years plus now. First to rise were the nice places by the rail station.

Majority of work here is warehousing and service industry (very low unemployment), way out of sync to the house prices locally. The prices are not massive like the scale in London but for local jobs/pay its pretty expensive here.

Head east towards the coast away from London transport links and its a fair bit cheaper, just need to afford the petrol to get to work even local work.

And MK is commuter (to London) town? So people with local salaries compete with people who have jobs in places that make the MK-unattainable-for-locals-prices look sane?

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Don't know about terminal decline, but London only suits certain occupations... you can be a driver, work in retail, builder etc anywhere living better for less..... even doctors and teachers can work anywhere.... Very creative people can live anywhere, certain hubs around the country specialise in certain skills..... London have the bankers and civil servants and people that provide a service to London people and tourists...for some they are now priced out of London, London's loss. ;)

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9 hours ago, fru-gal said:

or flats 😉.

7 hours ago, Wayward said:

Might not be a house?  Might be a flat??

Homes, dwellings, residencies...why property?  

“a thing or things belonging to someone;”

This isn’t a personal criticism of frugal, it’s habitual.

 

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1 hour ago, BorrowToLeech said:

Homes, dwellings, residencies...why property?  

“a thing or things belonging to someone;”

This isn’t a personal criticism of frugal, it’s habitual.

 

Okay....interesting.  I guess it is common use of English but if someone refers to the 'property 'market I think of commercial property.  The housing market I think of separately. I think in legalese 'property' is bricks and mortar property, if you see what I mean and chattels are non bricks and mortar property.

Why do you pick up on this point particularly...?

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15 hours ago, fru-gal said:

Ok, this is a completely anecdotal thread but I have noticed in recently years that London seems to be really declining fast. I live in a "middle class" area with good school and houses that can cost £1 million plus. In the past 6 months there have been 5 break-ins or attempted break-ins in the immediate area surrounding my property alone and the whole area is changing rapidly, lots of moped and opportunistic crime where previously this was rare and there seems to be a lot of churn to the residential make-up (about 30% private renters with a lot of older middle class boomer owner-occupiers). 

The shops are also changing - there is a lot of gentrification but the shops that do well tend to be the large coffee chains, estate agents and charity shops. Other small, independent shops struggle for a few years and are then replaced by other small independent shops (rinse and repeat) that can't compete once they have to pay extortionate rates and rents.

The point is that London feels more hostile, alien and more disparate than it has ever felt and I am a Londoner, born and bred. It seems to be changing very quickly and I can really see London declining even further generally with small middle class areas remaining in the midst of the chaos and sprawl and eventually disappearing once all the boomers have sold/died off. 

What are other Londoners takes on the current state of the Capital? What effect do you think Brexit will have?

I have a huge London ancestral family and extended family and friends with a few going back centuries, I was born and raised in SW19. I would calculate over the past 15 years 70% plus have now moved out. It was getting bad at the turn of the 2000's, it is worse now.

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14 hours ago, Errol said:

Expect increasing ghettoisation, white flight and substantially more crime.

I was pointing out a few days ago why I am at some point heading for Rutland, Yorkshire dales or Northumberland to live, parts of Suffolk as well, maybe. Without saying what it was I would like to see the back of without going into too much detail, the word "racist" popped like the proverbial Jack in the box.

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11 hours ago, thewig said:

More than a bit racist mate 

Is there anything more facile than whipping put the "racist" card every time somebody mentions immigrants? The post didn't even mention race. Discussing how many people were born overseas can simply be a measure of the rate of upheaval and change. Give the right on social justice warrioring a rest for ******s sake.

If you want some actual un-PC opinions to really cry about, wait and see whether I post what I really think of London.

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21 hours ago, dougless said:

Seems like a fairly balanced analysis fru-gal.  I am not a Londoner but have always lived close enough to pop in for a few hours if needed.  It has changed so much since the 70's that it is really a different place, apart from the obviously touristy bits.  I have long favored provincial towns over London for their general ambience.  London only really seems to make sense for the really, really wealthy.

Regarding Brexit, I am not sure London will notice to begin with unless the UK changes the rules on non UK ownership of property.  The amount of 'banked' property in London is shocking and a simple 10% per annum property tax for foreign owned property would help sort that out.

The changes mentioned by frugal will be rolled back as soon as ukgov starts enforcing existing laws - all migrants should be self supporting.

Remove HB, tax credits, bill for schoolung and NHS. Bang. London will fall by 30%

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  • 246 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
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      • Even
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      • up 5%



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