PropertyMania Posted August 20, 2018 Share Posted August 20, 2018 (edited) 41 minutes ago, GregBowman said: Perhaps not but also not disposing of assets under duress and playing the long game - if you don’t crystallise the loss then it isn’t a loss Problem is mere mortals don’t always have that option - job move, debt, divorce etc means normal people take the hit and the rich hoover up Bitcoin buyers at $15,000 say this. Loss has already happened Edited August 20, 2018 by PropertyMania Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
macca13 Posted August 20, 2018 Share Posted August 20, 2018 If housing does not work for key service jobs, like... dustman, road sweepers, shop workers, teachers and nurses.. then the city does not work.. Therefore housing does not work.. too many comets on social media telling people they need to get a better job or work harder.. we cant all be investment bankers.. someone has to do the crap jobs that keep the city functioning.. and they deserve housing/work harder probably more than most of the rich tw@ts who berate them.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurlerontheditch Posted August 20, 2018 Share Posted August 20, 2018 38 minutes in... its the fault of the mortgage valuers.. https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b0bfxpg2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
darkmarket Posted August 20, 2018 Share Posted August 20, 2018 1 hour ago, Oliver Sutton said: Fück knows where they got that -2.1%. It was -0.9 %. Aug 2011 was -2.1%. https://www.iamtheagent.com/blog/post/2017/08/21/rightmove-house-price-index-august-2017-update August does tend to produce a fall eg Aug 2014 was -2.9% but that was after a very strong spring, not an insipid one like this year. Good spot, just an accident of course. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mynamehere Posted August 20, 2018 Share Posted August 20, 2018 2,3 is a Very slightly higher than average drop. Points to real term stagnation / growth in line with inflation. Last year was 2,1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trump Invective Posted August 20, 2018 Share Posted August 20, 2018 12 minutes ago, mynamehere said: 2,3 is a Very slightly higher than average drop. Points to real term stagnation / growth in line with inflation. Last year was 2,1 Yes, looks like nothing special, we need something a bit more drastic than a monthly index dip to show things are changing. One thing I would note is that the overall price growth is lower each year apart from this year which is above 2017. One would wish for 2018 to be well below that green 2017 line. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
darkmarket Posted August 20, 2018 Share Posted August 20, 2018 14 minutes ago, mynamehere said: 2,3 is a Very slightly higher than average drop. Points to real term stagnation / growth in line with inflation. Last year was 2,1 -2.3% is the month-on-month drop. Your chart shows a different metric, cumulative growth year-to-date. Because at no point does it cross 0%, it's obviously not relevant to the -2.3% monthly drop. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
longgone Posted August 20, 2018 Share Posted August 20, 2018 3 hours ago, inbruges said: there are highly skilled educated working people out there who have zero chance of buying, and they have never screwed up in life. caution brings downfall Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mynamehere Posted August 20, 2018 Share Posted August 20, 2018 6 minutes ago, darkmarket said: -2.3% is the month-on-month drop. Your chart shows a different metric, cumulative growth year-to-date. Because at no point does it cross 0%, it's obviously not relevant to the -2.3% monthly drop. Huh? The graph very clearly shows the 2.3 drop. Can you elaborate? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
darkmarket Posted August 20, 2018 Share Posted August 20, 2018 Just now, mynamehere said: Huh? The graph very clearly shows the 2.3 drop. Can you elaborate? No, it doesn't. It's not that complicated, you used the wrong chart. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
opt_out Posted August 20, 2018 Share Posted August 20, 2018 3 minutes ago, mynamehere said: Huh? The graph very clearly shows the 2.3 drop. Can you elaborate? Where did you find it? it's ******. Go look at rightmove website if you want the real data. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mynamehere Posted August 20, 2018 Share Posted August 20, 2018 3 minutes ago, darkmarket said: No, it doesn't. It's not that complicated, you used the wrong chart. The monthly drop is clearly seen in the chart. The difference between this year and last year's July drops is 2.3% vs 2.1%. So we would expect the annual change to drop about 0.2%. Which is pretty close to what this month's report and the chart shows. Or am i missing something? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trump Invective Posted August 20, 2018 Share Posted August 20, 2018 4 minutes ago, mynamehere said: The monthly drop is clearly seen in the chart. The difference between this year and last year's July drops is 2.3% vs 2.1%. So we would expect the annual change to drop about 0.2%. Which is pretty close to what this month's report and the chart shows. Or am i missing something? Your chart shows the year to date percentage growth - but is revealing anyway, as it shows an annual trend repeating. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
btl_hater Posted August 20, 2018 Share Posted August 20, 2018 (edited) Never mind Edited August 20, 2018 by btl_hater Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mynamehere Posted August 20, 2018 Share Posted August 20, 2018 5 minutes ago, Trump Invective said: Your chart shows the year to date percentage growth - but is revealing anyway, as it shows an annual trend repeating. Yep. If next months is negative or even flat at 0% that is serve broken and much more encouraging. This months data however is very much in line with prior years I'm afraid. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mynamehere Posted August 20, 2018 Share Posted August 20, 2018 The relevant caveat is, the data is not seasonally adjusted! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
“Nasty Piece of work” Posted August 20, 2018 Share Posted August 20, 2018 2 hours ago, cashinmattress said: Uh huh... I'm sure you know better... for reasons. It was a King Knobber statement. Large reported falls, in an over-priced asset doesn’t make it attractive to Native or Foreign buyers. Your response adds absolutely nothing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
darkmarket Posted August 20, 2018 Share Posted August 20, 2018 6 minutes ago, mynamehere said: This months data however is very much in line with prior years I'm afraid. No, it isn't, and your chart didn't prove your point because you used the wrong chart. The figure for 2017 was -0.9%, for 2018 it's -2.3%. The caveats are monthly volatility and seasonality. Here's another source for the 2017 figure: https://www.mortgagestrategy.co.uk/holiday-season-chills-august-house-prices-rightmove/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mynamehere Posted August 20, 2018 Share Posted August 20, 2018 13 minutes ago, darkmarket said: No, it isn't, and your chart didn't prove your point because you used the wrong chart. The figure for 2017 was -0.9%, for 2018 it's -2.3%. The caveats are monthly volatility and seasonality. Here's another source for the 2017 figure: https://www.mortgagestrategy.co.uk/holiday-season-chills-august-house-prices-rightmove/ Interesting source you prefer there. How about this months actual rightmove report? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
durhamborn Posted August 20, 2018 Share Posted August 20, 2018 One just gone up for sale in my close -6% in the price nominal from 2005.13 years to lose 6% nominal,inflation adjusted must be around 50% down.3 bed semis. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peter Hun Posted August 20, 2018 Share Posted August 20, 2018 3 hours ago, cashinmattress said: Uh huh... I'm sure you know better... for reasons. Foreign buyers have evaporated from London's market. Article was in ft.com. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monkeyman1974 Posted August 20, 2018 Share Posted August 20, 2018 18 minutes ago, durhamborn said: One just gone up for sale in my close -6% in the price nominal from 2005.13 years to lose 6% nominal,inflation adjusted must be around 50% down.3 bed semis. Assuming you are still Durham based, yours is an example I can't stop myself from making frequently. The reality is, a lot of the UK is priced below the c£100-150psf it costs to build a house (forget the price of land). Houses have been a pretty miserable investment for many. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mynamehere Posted August 20, 2018 Share Posted August 20, 2018 I would guess the reason for the 2.1 vs 0.9% issue, is they have refined the index since then, including for example to include Scotland which traditionally has a larger summer drop than England as Scots rush to sell before the winter. That wouldn't account for the whole difference, but it's that kind of thing. I don't really see how the chart being calendar YTD has much to do with anything. You can't have it both ways. If you want to cite Rightmove as evidence for anything, you need to profess confidence in their YoY methodology, otherwise it's a bit of a joke? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
durhamborn Posted August 20, 2018 Share Posted August 20, 2018 (edited) 21 minutes ago, monkeyman1974 said: Assuming you are still Durham based, yours is an example I can't stop myself from making frequently. The reality is, a lot of the UK is priced below the c£100-150psf it costs to build a house (forget the price of land). Houses have been a pretty miserable investment for many. Exactly,i should add those houses doubled between 2002 and 2005,but are down 50% inflation adjusted since then.Nice 1979 semis as well,what i would say my generation circa 1970 would consider a nice family home,but a step below something bigger if you wanted it.The person selling that one owes £113k and its up or £119k,they paid £38k for it,but of course MEWed,cars etc.They have split up,both early 40s,both renting now,both getting zero equity.I would of thought they were mortgage free or very close and was quite shocked when the bloke told me.Just shows you how common it is where people have been living on equity etc.I know a few other people selling as well to buy cheaper houses as they cant afford where they are on 2.5% mortgages and good jobs.Some of my daughters friends have used HTB though and locked themselves in shocking houses for crazy prices.If they only see a 40% nominal haircut they will be lucky.Inflation adjusted im expecting 70%+ down within 8 years on what they paid. Edited August 20, 2018 by durhamborn Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Oliver Sutton Posted August 20, 2018 Share Posted August 20, 2018 Here's the Aug 2017 report. -0.9%. https://www.rightmove.co.uk/news/wp-content/uploads/2009/07/Rightmove-House-Price-Index-21-August-Final.pdf Seem to have retrospectively "adjusted" it. Made the next month +ve as it was originally -ve as well. Looks better that way. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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