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Land Registry - HPI - June 2018 +0.4% Nationwide, -0.6% London

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2 minutes ago, rantnrave said:

Sales taking another battering...

Remember that there is a massive amount of time between when they first purchase the sales number and when the last of the sales come through so you get this 'pattern' that every month 'sales' are down even though once a year has passed it was clear that there was no dip in sales: The Land Reg lag. What Neal Hudson was describing in January last year is still true today.

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25 minutes ago, hurlerontheditch said:

looks to be skewed by city of London at -23.8%  as the boroughs seem to be holding up

Holding up - or rolling over?

image.png.aeb26a5aee01f19e86606ddb5425db09.png

Compare that to June 2017

image.png.241a6faa1d5050ad69c9d73acbcd8537.png

Or June 2016

image.png.d0a55e6484feaba9b234bf93fb00a037.png

 

Edited by Bland Unsight

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Thanks for the link.

I was just about to say:
 

Quote

 

Lets face it, it is not happening. The falls actually are due to Brexit and they actually are mostly confined to prime London.

Brighton & Hove +2.9% for example..

 

 

However, looking at the volumes, they are down double digit percentages in the vast majority of areas so it is not so simple.

I wonder though if people are just waiting to see what happens with Brexit. With prices still up comfortably in most of the country transactions might start increasing in the next year or two. Will that push prices down though? Not so sure these days.

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Thanks for posting. And thanks to Bland Unsight for the graphs. I suspect Ealing (my neck of the woods), will soon follow Southwark and Wandsworth's big drops given the glut of new flats now available and still being built.

More generally, it just feels like we are one "thing"/"event" away from jitters becoming something more significant.

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16 minutes ago, hurlerontheditch said:

a picture paints a 1000 words!.

 

This one might be veering into the 'more trouble than it's worth' genre but nevertheless:

image.png.07b1ec9c41f256042be7ae3c8811ca2f.png

The way Harringey, Richmond, Southwark and Wandsworth have now rolled over into non-trivial year-on-year falls suggests that other boroughs that have slowed massively but are presently only falling marginally, static of rising marginally (Ealing, Enfield, Harrow, Hillingdon, Lewisham, Merton, Newham and Sutton) could in principle be falling at a decent clip in a year's time.

Edited by Bland Unsight

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28 minutes ago, Bland Unsight said:

Holding up - or rolling over?

image.png.aeb26a5aee01f19e86606ddb5425db09.png

Compare that to June 2017

image.png.241a6faa1d5050ad69c9d73acbcd8537.png

Or June 2016

image.png.d0a55e6484feaba9b234bf93fb00a037.png

 

 

Brilliant illustration of the drop in momentum. I am surprised by how long it is taking though, and it still does not counter the Brexit argument. It does correlate exactly with the referendum.

Is this kind of information available for 2008, or better yet, 1990? If this is how 1990 started, with this slow deterioration then I would be much more confident.

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Just now, AdamoMucci said:

 

Brilliant illustration of the drop in momentum. I am surprised by how long it is taking though, and it still does not counter the Brexit argument. It does correlate exactly with the referendum.

Is this kind of information available for 2008, or better yet, 1990? If this is how 1990 started, with this slow deterioration then I would be much more confident.

I think this is it here

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1 hour ago, rantnrave said:

Sales taking another battering...

By way of an example on the lag in the sales data.

Here's the first few boroughs as reported in June 2017:

1364306372_2017sales.png.d0da5e63bcffbdb605900aea9a7ef7a2.png

And here are the figures as reported in 2018:

2018.PNG.5fa46cf493a7e688bb7c0cfeadf46fbf.PNG

In June 2017 the report had Brent's April 2017 sales volumes down almost 20% year-on-year (155 vs 128) although once more of the data was through it suggests they were probably actually up by about 10% (155 vs 176).

 

 

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4 minutes ago, Bland Unsight said:

By way of an example on the lag in the sales data.

Here's the first few boroughs as reported in June 2017:

1364306372_2017sales.png.d0da5e63bcffbdb605900aea9a7ef7a2.png

And here are the figures as reported in 2018:

2018.PNG.5fa46cf493a7e688bb7c0cfeadf46fbf.PNG

In June 2017 the report had Brent's April 2017 sales volumes down almost 20% year-on-year (155 vs 128) although once more of the data was through it suggests they were probably actually up by about 10% (155 vs 176).

 

 

 

So we cannot trust the April 18 numbers either. They cannot be lower, but they can and almost certainly will be higher. Barking is still not anywhere the 90 that was claimed a year earlier.

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Just now, AdamoMucci said:

So we cannot trust the April 18 numbers either. They cannot be lower, but they can and almost certainly will be higher. Barking is still not anywhere the 90 that was claimed a year earlier.

The April 2018 sales volumes will be an accurate record of all the transactions occurring in April 2018 that have been notified to the Land Registry by the time the June 2018 HPI report is put together for release in August 2018. What you shouldn't do is assume that all the transactions that actually occurred in April 2018 will have been reported to the Land Registry before the June 2018 HPI report is prepared.

It's weird that the ONS keep releasing this data in the HPI report with no red flag to signal that the data published is often way off where the number will end up. The text in the report almost implies the opposite (if the June figures are "not yet at a reliable level" so they've published the April figure instead it's a reasonable for a reader to infer that the April numbers are at a 'reliable' level, but in fact they are reliably light a decent slab of transactions):

Quote

The amount of time between the sale of a property and the registration of this information varies. It typically ranges between 2 weeks and 2 months but can be longer. Volume figures for the most recent 2 months are not yet at a reliable level for reporting, so they are not included in the report. Published transactions for recent months will increase as later registered transactions are incorporated into the index.

 

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2 hours ago, Bland Unsight said:

Holding up - or rolling over?

image.png.aeb26a5aee01f19e86606ddb5425db09.png

Compare that to June 2017

image.png.241a6faa1d5050ad69c9d73acbcd8537.png

Or June 2016

image.png.d0a55e6484feaba9b234bf93fb00a037.png

 

Fantastic post - a great example where visualising data really has an impact - you can see confidence in London property sliding away right before your eyes!

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2 hours ago, rantnrave said:

Thanks. Oxford down, Cambridge down, Reigate down, St Albans down, Surrey down, Three Rivers down, South Bucks down, South Cambs down, Guildford down. Looks like that cheeky London HPC is spreading beyond the M25.

I don't understand though, I thought only low quality property was going to drop and "desirable" areas would hold up?

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Thanks for the considered analysis folks. Prices still up 5% in my area - pretty depressing. Fast reaching a point of no return. However there’s hope so thanks for highlighting it.

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  • 145 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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