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House Price Crash Forum

Pick your top 3 triggers for HPC

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9 hours ago, inbruges said:

I wonder now that that HPC is a profit making website that was taken over if they would prefer not to have a property crash ? 

Interesting question. I stopped coming on here for news of an HPC because the stupid system is so rigged. I come on here for a real view on all things economic (except Bitcoin, that thread is just pure Ponzi comedy)

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1). No deal Brexit (looking ever more likely now) - the doom and gloom to come out of it will kick things off

2). Recession (we're due one) - remember, they can't fight it by cutting the interest rates this time...!

3). Currency crisis

I was going to put the removal of HTB but it'll never happen, the 3 I've suggested are quite likely to occur judging by recent events. Rate rises might do the trick, but then it'd take ages for rates get back to 5%+ and by then I feel we'll be a major downward trajectory anyway.

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Who would want to pick an investment thinking that there is a growing possibility that it may fall?.....sentiment.

Only genuine longer-term purchasers who buy for the right reasons, a home to live in that they can afford will buy for the right reasons. ;)

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15 hours ago, Voice of Doom said:

? or tease it out as long as they could. Like Lost. 

"Season 85 on HPC: will Help To Buy kick the bucket? Will S24 give the P45 to Mr Dodgy Landlord? Will Carney raise interest rates again or does he love his children too much? Will this whole charade ever end?"

Or really good first season falling apart quite quickly on the next season like "Under the Dome"

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7 hours ago, inbruges said:

...political parties pretend(more the Tories) that they are not tax increasing parties...
...UK taxes realistically must go up 25% plus,...

Yes strange. On an average ish PAYE salary, my effective Tax burden is already maxed out as high as it was in the peak of the 1970s.
Since the trend has been to shift the burden from the rich to the many (VAT, Council Tax etc.), I am now paying mine and some one else's share (via their helpful Tax planning) and we're paying extra for more services that used to be provided from said taxation (higher education). Then what's left over doesn't go as far, especially if purchasing essentials like a place to live.

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1. The fastest way to crash the market would be interest rate rises. Historically, the Fed should drag us up. 

2. Recession is slower but surer. Overdue for that one, and there's no ammunition left. 

3. Politics. Like the effects of a high taxing Corbyn government. 

Basically any factor which means people can no longer afford their mortgages through a decrease in a income will lead to a massive HPC. 

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