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2rocketman

Pick your top 3 triggers for HPC

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Whilst reading another thread it made me curious as to what others think will be the trigger for a HPC. We all know there is a good few scenarios that could play out but what is your top 3 in order? 

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1. Interest rates rising 

2. Interest only mortgages reaching their end date for lots of people 

3. The end of Help to Buy (borrow)

4. Recession 

Sorry; that's 4 but I think they will collectively bring a crash. 

Edited by wsn03

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I think another question is simply will it be a true black swan or one of the many forecast triggers?

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1. Interest rates > 5%

2. Social House Building program implemented, +250k homes per year

3. Much stricter and enforced BTL regulation, for lending, Taxes and proper rights for tenants

4. Enforced legislation to end land banking, builder market manipulation and proptastic govt medling.

 

3 just ain't enough!

Edited by DarkHorseWaits-NoMore
typo's

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Guest

Impossible to put in order.

There are probably at least 20, some doing more damage than others and probably some none of you or I even realise they exist. What matters is the ingredients are all there for a crash and now waiting for one of the triggers.

If I was forced to guess I would say

1. A wealth distribution government in favour of the poor(OK Corbyn)

2. Brexit

3. Interest rates.

But whatever it is one will lead to another trigger which will lead to another.... i.e  Interest rates go up, which causes non payment of debt, which causes bank problems, which effects sentiment, which causes recession,  which causes more government spending,  which effects sentiment......................... and on and on

Edited by Guest

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2 hours ago, inbruges said:

But whatever it is one will lead to another trigger which will lead to another.... i.e  Interest rates go up, which causes non payment of debt, which causes bank problems...

I think you could be right. But it is going to be fascinating to see how it plays out.

A side question: once it does become apparent a crash is on, what will happen to HPC? Will it be like a TV crime drama forum after the twist is revealed? 

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3 hours ago, chronyx said:

I think another question is simply will it be a true black swan or one of the many forecast triggers?

A very good question. Will high house prices die as a result of a left-field sniper shot or as a result of a set of chronic conditions we've all known about for ages?

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3 minutes ago, Voice of Doom said:

I think you could be right. But it is going to be fascinating to see how it plays out.

A side question: once it does become apparent a crash is on, what will happen to HPC? Will it be like a TV crime drama forum after the twist is revealed? 

I wonder now that that HPC is a profit making website that was taken over if they would prefer not to have a property crash 🙂 

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😀 or tease it out as long as they could. Like Lost. 

"Season 85 on HPC: will Help To Buy kick the bucket? Will S24 give the P45 to Mr Dodgy Landlord? Will Carney raise interest rates again or does he love his children too much? Will this whole charade ever end?"

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1 - S24 

2 - interest rates 

3 - Corbyn. But we'd have much bigger things to worry about than house prices if that happens. 

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8 hours ago, Voice of Doom said:

I think you could be right. But it is going to be fascinating to see how it plays out.

A side question: once it does become apparent a crash is on, what will happen to HPC? Will it be like a TV crime drama forum after the twist is revealed? 

Everyday there is in your face evidence that the UK is now one big polished turd and politicians at the same time try to convince us we are all doing well while and the same time telling us the economy is too fragile to take any risks.

Just take yesterday for example, and my Dad got me started on this bless him 🙂, he has never know a time where he has not been able to go out of the house into town for example and not take a p***. The so called 1970's winter of discontent there were no problems like this , even in Victorian times they built grand looking  public loos and fountains. We are a country pretending to itself, political parties pretend(more the Tories) that they are not tax increasing parties, implying that they know how to efficiently run the country, so in order to create that illusion they make cutbacks that are causing depression on mass in public services and make us an uncivilised nation as we all piss in the gutter or behind a wall, UK taxes realistically must go up 25% plus, but that would destroy a fake property boom.

Then I read an article about the post code/ county line drug dealing issues, more so in sea side towns, Oh My God! I never realised how bad it was. Threats, stabbings and intimidation, towns and cities becoming no go areas as the feral kids we have paid and homed out of our taxes now show their true colours(not all their fault I might add). Drug dealers interviewed with their faces covered live on TV saying "normal jobs" don't pay for living expenses, not even close. They are living in hell holes, at least the drug trade gives them some kind of dignity. Don't get me wrong I hate them, but there is one part of me that understands their logic even though I here endless stories of WW2 widows with kids who had nothing and raised good solid decent children on a pitance.

And then we come to what matters to us on here, there is also the message that one large group of people in the UK are doing so bloody God dam well that their homes are worth a fortune, life is great. People are turning to populist political parties and i see it getting worse, the UK is one massive powder keg with a lit candle under it, it's only a matter of time.

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  • 261 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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