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The end really is near: a play-by-play of the coming economic collapse

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I love the two that use a million words just to say "Trump is LITERALLY, like, Hitler"

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16 minutes ago, zugzwang said:

Nice to see Erdogan orchestrating an anti-Apple crusade this morning. Black swan, anybody? B)

Why is that nice? a backward female oppressing country with a leader intent on taking it back to the stone age organises an anti 1st world campaign (whatever you think of Apple) 

Nice.....

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan hit back at Austria on Saturday after the country moved to expel several imams accused of spreading radical Islam.

The President warned of a global war between Christians and Muslims as he blasted Austria's move to close mosques and expel Turkish-funded imams.

Erdogan said in a speech in Istanbul: 'These measures taken by the Austrian prime minister are, I fear, leading the world towards a war between the cross and the crescent.'

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Erdogan is really pushing it but it seems to be his MO to provoke and push to the max to achieve concessions - like Trump.

 Given that he went so far as to shoot down a Russian military jet and actually managed to improve relations with Russia afterwards I'd say it's a successful formula for him.   The question is just how determined Trump is to win ... could be interesting (or dangerous).

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I am probably one of the more cynical posters on here on when this housing bubble will burst, though there are some who have waited far longer than me and are more cynical and annoyed that so many risks have been taken with peoples lives in order to keep it inflated.

I am just so certain now that we are on the verge, just that final little push over the edge is all it's going to take. I have heard people on here saying they are going cave in and buy, move out of the UK, live on a boat or van. All I am saying, just a little longer, you can just feel it, well I can anyway.

Whether it is going to be a good thing I am now undecided, be careful what you wish for and all that.

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1 hour ago, GregBowman said:

Why is that nice? a backward female oppressing country with a leader intent on taking it back to the stone age organises an anti 1st world campaign (whatever you think of Apple) 

Nice.....

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan hit back at Austria on Saturday after the country moved to expel several imams accused of spreading radical Islam.

The President warned of a global war between Christians and Muslims as he blasted Austria's move to close mosques and expel Turkish-funded imams.

Erdogan said in a speech in Istanbul: 'These measures taken by the Austrian prime minister are, I fear, leading the world towards a war between the cross and the crescent.'

Trump picked the fight! What did he think Erdogan would do given his hard man reputation, roll over and have his tummy tickled?

Like it or not, Apple is now the keystone of the US military-industrial complex. If Erdogan can dislodge that then the US stock market will fold like a paper lantern in a hurricane. Another high stakes folly from the nylon-haired reality tv diva.

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1 hour ago, zugzwang said:

Trump picked the fight! What did he think Erdogan would do given his hard man reputation, roll over and have his tummy tickled?

Like it or not, Apple is now the keystone of the US military-industrial complex. If Erdogan can dislodge that then the US stock market will fold like a paper lantern in a hurricane. Another high stakes folly from the nylon-haired reality tv diva.

A good point and Apple is such an annoyingly arrogant company it would be good to see them taken down a peg or three.

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3 hours ago, GregBowman said:

The President warned of a global war between Christians and Muslims

Warning whom? 

Looking at the military power and industrial capability of the 5 wealthiest Christian nations and the 5 wealthiest Muslim ones, I would hardly be filled with dread at the prospect of the latter winning.

It's interesting what the lack of reaction to his comments says about the racism of low expectations towards Muslim countries. If Trump made that comment the left wing press would explode.

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Sorry but all I see is a lot of wild ranting . Turkey is ultimately tiny compared to the u.s. and is clinging on by its finger nails.

Can't see how it can 'take down' apple or any other such corporation .

Spanish banks in particular are probably getting a bit twitchy followed by French banks.

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They certainly have no hope of facing down the US economically (they were a basket case before this all kicked off) but they could do all sorts of damage to the West generally like opening the floodgates for refugees/economic migrants into Europe.  There are also a lot of Turks (or 1st gen children of immigrants) in Germany and they could cause a lot of trouble if stirred up.  And Erdogan has heavily pandered to Islam, moving Turkey away from the secular state it used to be so he has influence on Muslim populations in Europe.

The biggest way that they could hurt the US is to withdraw from NATO.

Would Erdogan be stupid/desperate enough to try any of the above?  Who knows ... but he's cultivated a reputation for doing crazy and extreme things so he just might.

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10 minutes ago, Sour Mash said:

Would Erdogan be stupid/desperate enough to try any of the above?  Who knows ... but he's cultivated a reputation for doing crazy and extreme things so he just might.

Depends on how much they can get in financial assistance.

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Turkey is and always has been a place of vital strategic importance.

Trump is playing a dangerous game. If he pushes too hard Turkey will move from the NATO/West side to the Russian/East side. 

By continually using the dollar as a weapon, the US is driving people to abandon its use asap. Frankly their behaviour is just bizarre (desperate). If you wanted to give the impression of an unstable nation, wildly throwing its weight around (e.g. sanctions) then the US could not be doing a better job.

The rest of the world (i.e. not the US and its vassals) is watching and taking notes.

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All but Schiffer are frighteningly complacent.  A mild dip in 2020 is the consensus.  And if there is a recession it will be the fault of the Central Banks for raising rates too high.  Oh and no bubbles in any asset class nor unsustainable debt or trade imbalances either.  Incredibly benign view of the current stand off of disasters.

Edited by ElPapasito
duplicate phrase

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Danny Blanchflower never changes his tune does he: "So the actions by the Central Bank, in the U.S. especially, but also this week in the U.K., to raise rates are mistakes. There is no wage pressure, there is no inflation, there's no basis in the data to do that. And that's what generates recessions."   At least he is now in the US and not inflicted on the UK.

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1 hour ago, Errol said:

Turkey is and always has been a place of vital strategic importance.

Trump is playing a dangerous game. If he pushes too hard Turkey will move from the NATO/West side to the Russian/East side. 

By continually using the dollar as a weapon, the US is driving people to abandon its use asap. Frankly their behaviour is just bizarre (desperate). If you wanted to give the impression of an unstable nation, wildly throwing its weight around (e.g. sanctions) then the US could not be doing a better job.

The rest of the world (i.e. not the US and its vassals) is watching and taking notes.

Trump doesn't understand the Triffin paradox. The USD as reserve currency has to serve two masters, domestic and international. This can only be accomplished by running twin current account and trade deficits, without which the rest of the world is starved of foreign exchange reserves. Keynes anticipated the dilemma and proposed the introduction of a supranational Bancor currency at Bretton Woods instead of the dollar, which the Americans famously rejected. It seems obvious to me that the US economy is now too small relative to the rest of the world to fulfil this lender of last resort role uniquely.

 

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1 hour ago, Errol said:

Turkey is and always has been a place of vital strategic importance.

Trump is playing a dangerous game. If he pushes too hard Turkey will move from the NATO/West side to the Russian/East side. 

By continually using the dollar as a weapon, the US is driving people to abandon its use asap. Frankly their behaviour is just bizarre (desperate). If you wanted to give the impression of an unstable nation, wildly throwing its weight around (e.g. sanctions) then the US could not be doing a better job.

The rest of the world (i.e. not the US and its vassals) is watching and taking notes.

^this

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5 hours ago, Errol said:

Turkey is and always has been a place of vital strategic importance.

Trump is playing a dangerous game. If he pushes too hard Turkey will move from the NATO/West side to the Russian/East side. 

By continually using the dollar as a weapon, the US is driving people to abandon its use asap. Frankly their behaviour is just bizarre (desperate). If you wanted to give the impression of an unstable nation, wildly throwing its weight around (e.g. sanctions) then the US could not be doing a better job.

The rest of the world (i.e. not the US and its vassals) is watching and taking notes.

Yes, having control of the de-facto global reserve currency is an amazing advantage which needs to be exploited subtly.  By using more and more sanctions and economic measures like denying access to dollars/ global banking systems to states it doesn't like,  the US is killing the goose that lays the golden eggs.

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5 hours ago, petetong said:

Danny Blanchflower never changes his tune does he: "So the actions by the Central Bank, in the U.S. especially, but also this week in the U.K., to raise rates are mistakes. There is no wage pressure, there is no inflation, there's no basis in the data to do that. And that's what generates recessions."   At least he is now in the US and not inflicted on the UK.

And he also repeats his mantra that no one saw 2008 coming. 

Heck I saw it when a colleague starting looking closely into Libor in 2004. I never predicted when it would be but I could see *something* was coming. 

I am not an economist nor have enough info to be in a position to predict anything. But I did see it coming and I know of many people around me {just average Joe's} who saw it (or pre-tremors at least)...

OK, so I get the allegation  that the PTB did not see it coming... But being in this job and not picking up what was obvious to the man on the street if he did just a little reading beyond his mortgage application then.  

But blanchflower and the like are either inept, deaf, miopic or machiavellian... Or maybe all of them. 

I still can't understand how his colleagues can stomach the drivel... 

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11 minutes ago, Aidan Ap Word said:

And he also repeats his mantra that no one saw 2008 coming. 

Heck I saw it when a colleague starting looking closely into Libor in 2004. I never predicted when it would be but I could see *something* was coming. 

I am not an economist nor have enough info to be in a position to predict anything. But I did see it coming and I know of many people around me {just average Joe's} who saw it (or pre-tremors at least)...

OK, so I get the allegation  that the PTB did not see it coming... But being in this job and not picking up what was obvious to the man on the street if he did just a little reading beyond his mortgage application then.  

But blanchflower and the like are either inept, deaf, miopic or machiavellian... Or maybe all of them. 

I still can't understand how his colleagues can stomach the drivel... 

As a general rule hedge funds won't employ the services of economics PhDs. It's not hard to see why.

Danny Blanchflower's Terrible Tips.

Quote

Whenever Gordon Brown’s favourite former appointee to the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee, David Blanchflower, makes a prediction, it’s probably a safe bet to expect the exact opposite to come true. Back in 2009 the out-of-luck economist looked into his evidently faulty crystal ball and predicted that unemployment would top 5 million if the Tories came into power. As of yesterday it stands at 2.53 million and falling. David is very nearly 100% wrong – quite a wide margin of error.

He forecast that unemployment would surge past 3 million to 3.4 million in 2010. It peaked at 2.5 million in 2010.

On Tuesday Blanchflower was at it again, wagering that the new set of unemployment figures would bring bad news:

i fully expect an increase in unemployment tomorrow

— Danny Blanchflower (@D_Blanchflower) October 17, 2012

 

Lo and behold once again the opposite happened, with unemployment dropping by 50,000 to below 8%. Keep trying David, you might get one right eventually…

blanchflower.jpg?w=480&ssl=1

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20 hours ago, zugzwang said:

Nice to see Erdogan orchestrating an anti-Apple crusade this morning. Black swan, anybody? B)

That's not a blank swan. Ankara's Islamo-facist would need to come up with more than that to make a black swan. 

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13 hours ago, Errol said:

Turkey is and always has been a place of vital strategic importance.

Trump is playing a dangerous game. If he pushes too hard Turkey will move from the NATO/West side to the Russian/East side. 

By continually using the dollar as a weapon, the US is driving people to abandon its use asap. Frankly their behaviour is just bizarre (desperate). If you wanted to give the impression of an unstable nation, wildly throwing its weight around (e.g. sanctions) then the US could not be doing a better job.

The rest of the world (i.e. not the US and its vassals) is watching and taking notes.

Was important.

There's never been presure from the US or other countries to use the dollar.

But its down to the other countries to either grow their economy to the size ofthe US or get together and create a similar currency.

EU tried. And failed.

There's always China.

 

 

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17 hours ago, Errol said:

Turkey is and always has been a place of vital strategic importance.

Trump is playing a dangerous game. If he pushes too hard Turkey will move from the NATO/West side to the Russian/East side. 

By continually using the dollar as a weapon, the US is driving people to abandon its use asap. Frankly their behaviour is just bizarre (desperate). If you wanted to give the impression of an unstable nation, wildly throwing its weight around (e.g. sanctions) then the US could not be doing a better job.

The rest of the world (i.e. not the US and its vassals) is watching and taking notes.

 

15 hours ago, zugzwang said:

Trump doesn't understand the Triffin paradox. The USD as reserve currency has to serve two masters, domestic and international. This can only be accomplished by running twin current account and trade deficits, without which the rest of the world is starved of foreign exchange reserves. Keynes anticipated the dilemma and proposed the introduction of a supranational Bancor currency at Bretton Woods instead of the dollar, which the Americans famously rejected. It seems obvious to me that the US economy is now too small relative to the rest of the world to fulfil this lender of last resort role uniquely.

 

Look at these two again, but assume he *does* understand it, or has been told what to do by those who do, even if it will result in short-medium term pain. I'm guessing the next crisis will be used to introduce a replacement - SDRs or similar - that the US won't be in a position to unilaterally reject.

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2 hours ago, Kilham said:

 

Look at these two again, but assume he *does* understand it, or has been told what to do by those who do, even if it will result in short-medium term pain. I'm guessing the next crisis will be used to introduce a replacement - SDRs or similar - that the US won't be in a position to unilaterally reject.

Bit too conspiracy minded for me but I agree a bancor-type currency is the way forward and that Wall Street and the US political establishment will fight the prospect tooth and nail.

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  • 140 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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