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hurlerontheditch

LSL July Report annual +1.6%, monthly -0.2%

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Monthly change has been negative each month since Feb. Looking at the price data the annual change will go negative by October at the latest unless there's a pick up in prices.

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Nice to see Acadata getting picked up by the press. 

"U.K. House Prices Are on the Longest Losing Streak Since Crisis"

U.K. house prices fell for a fifth month in a row in July, the longest stretch of declines since the financial crisis.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-08-12/u-k-house-prices-are-on-the-longest-losing-streak-since-crisis

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https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/about-the-uk-house-price-index/comparing-house-price-indices-in-the-uk

2.1 Coverage

While the data source for the UK House Price Index (UK HPI), LSL Acadata and Rightmove are based on both cash and mortgage transactions, both Halifax and Nationwide produce house price indices based on their own mortgage approvals and therefore will not include any cash transactions. Whilst the majority of property transactions are completed with a mortgage, 30% to 40% of sales are completed as cash purchases. If trends in cash and mortgage sales differ, this may lead to biases in measures that exclude cash sales.

The indices of Halifax and Nationwide are based on their own mortgage applications at the approval stage but after the corresponding valuation have been completed. This may differ to the final sale price as used by the UKHPI and LSL Acadata. Owner occupied properties only are used by Halifax and Nationwide – buy to let properties are excluded. Buy to let properties are included for the UK HPI, LSL Acadata and Rightmove.

 

Hmm. Which index do you think is more accurate? 

 

 

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In the Analysis section the report refers to the Bank of England Inflation Report:

The Bank argues that “the weakness in the housing market appears to be concentrated in London”. The Bank has suggested that although London has tended to lead other areas in the past in terms of market prices and activity, it sees the current weakness of London as specific to the capital, and thus having limited relevance to other parts of the UK.

Are they COMPLETE ARSES? How can falling prices in prime central London not trickle out to the periphery of London (otherwise why would someone buy a relatively more expensive outer london house rather than the now cheaper PCL house) and then a cheaper zone 4 London will knock on to the Home Counties for the same reason.  How can the BofE not get that???

EP

Edited by ElPapasito

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12 minutes ago, ElPapasito said:

How can the BofE not get that???

Or, alternatively, how can the BoE think it will be different this time? And, if they believe such rubbish, what are the reasons for the belief?

Unless they are just saying what everyone wants to hear, perhaps?

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3 minutes ago, ElPapasito said:

In the Analysis section the report refers to the Bank of England Inflation Report:

The Bank argues that “the weakness in the housing market appears to be concentrated in London”. The Bank has suggested that although London has tended to lead other areas in the past in terms of market prices and activity, it sees the current weakness of London as specific to the capital, and thus having limited relevance to other parts of the UK.

Are they COMPLETE ARSES? How can falling prices in prime central London not trickle out to the periphery of London (otherwise why would someone buy a relatively more expensive outer london house rather than the now cheaper PCL house) and then a cheaper zone 4 London will knock on to the Home Counties for the same reason.  How can the BofE not get that???

EP

As of today

Norwich + 10 miles = 417 properties over 500k which is 2 x the average sold price of 230k which is 10x the 450pw average pay packet

Looking at indeed (duplicate listings) and it looks like about 107 non agency perm norfolk jobs over 35k which wont get you those houses.

ergo people buying here dont get the money to do so from here in the main.

They are wilfully bullshitting themselves.  

I remember a radio interview with the deputy of the BOE where he said QE had put a floor under asse prices.... and then said it did not impact house prices so telling porkies or scarily incompetent.

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And in May 2018 and July 2018 house prices fell faster *outside* of London than inside:

image.thumb.png.19c9046a4f6f457e7f22b862c18ddd89.png

"London" for the purposes of this specific slice of the data may or may not be PCL ... I really don't gte how these folks get paid for ignoring their own data.

Edited by Aidan Ap Word
spelling

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9 hours ago, hurlerontheditch said:

none.. its all a fudge!

Wait, so what are we all doing here? It's all just a lie?

FFS, now I need to find something else to complain about.

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8 hours ago, ElPapasito said:

In the Analysis section the report refers to the Bank of England Inflation Report:

The Bank argues that “the weakness in the housing market appears to be concentrated in London”. The Bank has suggested that although London has tended to lead other areas in the past in terms of market prices and activity, it sees the current weakness of London as specific to the capital, and thus having limited relevance to other parts of the UK.

Are they COMPLETE ARSES? How can falling prices in prime central London not trickle out to the periphery of London (otherwise why would someone buy a relatively more expensive outer london house rather than the now cheaper PCL house) and then a cheaper zone 4 London will knock on to the Home Counties for the same reason.  How can the BofE not get that???

EP

Just being devil's advocate, as i do agree that falls in PCL will eventually feed through to the rest of London, however...

PCL contains a lot of trophy asset places that are insanely expensive. Apartments on hyde park / park lane with a cost in 2015 of 75million. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3116377/Five-bedroom-One-Hyde-Park-apartment-costing-75MILLION-expensive-market.html

There's a few trophy asset type places around central London that were at those types of prices - Regents Crescent, Nottinghill, Knightsbridge, St James's Park. The prices of these places are truly divorced from the reality of the rest of the market, and set by the money coming out of Russia, the middle east, China and Africa. These could cost 100million or 30million and they would still be disconnected from the rest of the market - and the difference of 1 or 2 houses selling at 30 million rather than 100 million will be enough to show up in the overall stats for PCL, because the total transaction volume is quite low in that area (I can't remember exactly the annual sales, but i think in the low thousands per year)

Just back of a fag packet, but a thousand houses selling in a year at an average of 1.5million each, with a single house previously selling at 100million that now sells for 50million would impact the overall average prices by about 3%

So, overall whilst i do think it is clear that the "real" market that does affect the rest of London is suffering - by which i mean places in PCL costing about 1-5million, there is a portion of the PCL market that really is pretty detatched from the prices in the rest of the market, and this is where really big moves in prices have happened

 

 

Edited by Foreverblowingbubbles

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  • 261 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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