Halifax July 2018

[Guest]

7 minutes ago, spyguy said:

https://www.cml.org.uk/news/news-and-views/585/

That's quite interesting stuff, basically back to 1973 levels, the low in the late 1980's tallies with the property crash then. The massive fall after the financial crash also makes sense and then it flat lines, you would have thought  prices would have tumbled by now though, that's the bit that makes zero sense, unless VI are throwing everything at it, like trying to keep a leaking boat in a rough sea afloat with a collander

[mynamehere]

The consensus seems clear, if you hoping to buy a house under 400k, there will be no nominal crash  Over 1m, siginficant nominal falls are  likely. Inbetween real terms stagnation, or very modest nominal rises. 

It's just very hard to imagine any situation which would lead to large falls for sub 400k properties. 

 

 

[spyguy]

3 minutes ago, mynamehere said:

The consensus seems clear, if you hoping to buy a house under 400k, there will be no nominal crash  Over 1m, siginficant nominal falls are  likely. Inbetween real terms stagnation, or very modest nominal rises. 

It's just very hard to imagine any situation which would lead to large falls for sub 400k properties. 

 

 

Thats not my consensus.

MMR hammers LTE ratio back to ~4x.

The only thing hat could save a nominal crash is wages doubling.

 

[Guest]

2 minutes ago, Riedquat said:

The risk is that by ignoring problems like ridiculous immigration rates people on the edge of acceptability start to tip over it towards the unpalatable groups who at least acknowledge the issue even if they do so for all the wrong reasons. That can turn in to a flood if the result from the mainstream is to dig their heels in with a combination of ignoring the problem and insulting those who see it; more and more they stick to the "bunch of racists that need dealing with" in reaction and in doing become even less able to see the cracks that let the likes of the BNP get a foothold outside of their core nutters. It's very irresponsible.

Don't get me wrong, I am not anti immigration, in fact I despise some of the religions and cultures that have entered this country. But groups like the BNP would keep moving to the racist project as one disappeared, just racists. But I can fully understand why people take desperate measure when put in desperate positions, it's probably a large part of why we have Brexit.

[spyguy]

5 minutes ago, inbruges said:

That's quite interesting stuff, basically back to 1973 levels, the low in the late 1980's tallies with the property crash then. The massive fall after the financial crash also makes sense and then it flat lines, you would have thought  prices would have tumbled by now though, that's the bit that makes zero sense, unless VI are throwing everything at it, like trying to keep a leaking boat in a rough sea afloat with a collander

These are UK figures.

They cover huge variations.

MOst of sales post 2008 have been London/Se.

Outside of London/Se, regional markets are at 30% of their post 2008 30 year average.

 

[Pebbles]

1 minute ago, Riedquat said:

The risk is that by ignoring problems like ridiculous immigration rates people on the edge of acceptability start to tip over it towards the unpalatable groups who at least acknowledge the issue even if they do so for all the wrong reasons. That can turn in to a flood if the result from the mainstream is to dig their heels in with a combination of ignoring the problem and insulting those who see it; more and more they stick to the "bunch of racists that need dealing with" in reaction and in doing become even less able to see the cracks that let the likes of the BNP get a foothold outside of their core nutters. It's very irresponsible. 

This was exactly my point and @inbruges insistence that UKIP were "probably racist" sort of shows my point that people will claim racist as a way of shutting down parties or debate. When everyone has a different view of racism, is criticizing halal, burqua wearing Israel non english speaking immigrants racist? If we dismiss these concerns buy crying "racist" then you will alienate a lot of people.

 

Anyway back to the point of the thread. House prices seem to be heading up still even if we still see alot of reductions. House prices go up  with supply and procedable demand. The credit taps are in fulll flow, Basel 3 is still in the distanance and we still (at least in cams/suffolk area) have a much reduced supply on 3/4 years ago (where there were several decent houses listed sub 125k on rightmove now there are none!)

[mynamehere]

4 minutes ago, spyguy said:

Thats not my consensus.

MMR hammers LTE ratio back to ~4x.

The only thing hat could save a nominal crash is wages doubling.

 

But household income has effectively doubled? Birth rate is plummeting. More women working. 

[Pebbles]

6 minutes ago, spyguy said:

Thats not my consensus.

MMR hammers LTE ratio back to ~4x.

The only thing hat could save a nominal crash is wages doubling. 

 

Sorry look at the jusp in LTE ratio when MMR actually came in. Look at the 40+ year mortgages look at women in work doubling household earnings. I have seen no friends get knocked by by the pussycat that is MMR. Interest rates are still very low.

Sorry it just isn't happening credit taps are still freely on.

[Guest]

4 minutes ago, mynamehere said:

But household income has effectively doubled? Birth rate is plummeting. More women working. 

Not in some UK cultures it's not and within closed communities that provide very little tax revenue I might add for what they take out. Check the census of the names of newly born babies, it might shock and surprise you

[spyguy]

7 minutes ago, mynamehere said:

But household income has effectively doubled? Birth rate is plummeting. More women working. 

UK women entered workplace in the 70s.

 

[mynamehere]

Transaction figures are about in line with the long term averages. There was a spike recently due to tax changes that distort the YoY % figures. But on long term average basis, transactions are pretty much smack on average. Sorry!

[spyguy]

4 minutes ago, Pebbles said:

Sorry look at the jusp in LTE ratio when MMR actually came in. Look at the 40+ year mortgages look at women in work doubling household earnings. I have seen no friends get knocked by by the pussycat that is MMR. Interest rates are still very low.

Sorry it just isn't happening credit taps are still freely on.

No.

Net lending:

http://moneymovesmarkets.com/journal/2013/11/27/uk-mortgage-lending-pick-up-offset-by-increased-repayments-n.html

 

[mynamehere]

3 minutes ago, spyguy said:

UK women entered workplace in the 70s.

 

Women’s Representation in the Labour Force Is Steadily Increasing16

More women are working than before. Today, over 70% of women aged 16–64 are employed, this percentage has increased from slightly over half (53%) in 1971.17

[spyguy]

3 minutes ago, mynamehere said:

Transaction figures are about in line with the long term averages. There was a spike recently due to tax changes that distort the YoY % figures. But on long term average basis, transactions are pretty much smack on average. Sorry!

No they are not. They are waaaay down.

[spyguy]

Just now, mynamehere said:

Women’s Representation in the Labour Force Is Steadily Increasing16

More women are working than before. Today, over 70% of women aged 16–64 are employed, this percentage has increased from slightly over half (53%) in 1971.17

This is all tax credits.

[mynamehere]

1 minute ago, spyguy said:

No they are not. They are waaaay down.

Depends how you look at it. Higher than 2010-2015. Lower than 00-05. Long term, average. 

 

[spyguy]

2 minutes ago, mynamehere said:

Depends how you look at it. Higher than 2010-2015. Lower than 00-05. Long term, average. 

 

Nope.

See my earlier post with the crap CML chart.

Theres some distortion from foreign idiots buying crap London flats. Thats over now.

Transaction are at about ~30% of their 30 years average.

Why do you think there are load of EA's tales of woe?

 

 

[mynamehere]

Just now, spyguy said:

Nope.

See my earlier post with the crap CML chart.

Theres some distortion from foreign idiots buying crap London flats. Thats over now.

Transaction are at about ~30% of their 30 years average.

Why do you think there are load of EA's tales of woe?

 

 

Do you have data on that? All the graphs I've seen show transactions as relatively stable over last 10 years. Not sure it's worth going back further than that?

Estate agent  profits do not perfectly correlate with transaction volumes. Otherwise, coutrywide would have a stable share price over last 10 years too! Obv lots of disruptoin going on in that industry and right so. 

 

 

[spyguy]

Just now, mynamehere said:

Do you have data on that? All the graphs I've seen show transactions as relatively stable over last 10 years. Not sure it's worth going back further than that?

Estate agent  profits do not perfectly correlate with transaction volumes. Otherwise, coutrywide would have a stable share price over last 10 years too! Obv lots of disruptoin going on in that industry and right so. 

 

 

Yes - look at the CML link I posted.

Dont use the last 10 years as normal. Look at the 20-30 years before 2007.

EA profits are *directly* proportional to transaction volumes.

CW has nose dived as the number of transaction have fallen off, they can no longer charge tenant fees and they are more competition and high fixed costs.

 

 

[mynamehere]

3 minutes ago, spyguy said:

Yes - look at the CML link I posted.

Dont use the last 10 years as normal. Look at the 20-30 years before 2007.

EA profits are *directly* proportional to transaction volumes.

CW has nose dived as the number of transaction have fallen off, they can no longer charge tenant fees and they are more competition and high fixed costs.

 

 

Sorry I can't see 30% at all. Eyeballing your chart, long term average is, what, 1200k maybe? Average over last 5 years is about 1100k. 

If countrywide shareprice was directly correlated to transactions, that would imply a 90% drop in transactions, when in reality over the period of countrywide's decline, transactions have declined barely 10%  if that. Probably closer to 5%.

 

[Captain Kirk]

Interesting comment on thisismoney.co.uk

Quote

Not the Halifax again, with its deliberately inflated house prices, when you take a mortgage with them, the first thing they do on completion is increase the value of your house, hence why they consistently report rises, its all made up, its a scam, a ponzi scheme - - - This paper also has a vested interest in pushing this with its property website ownership - - - With Estate Agents closing and begging for money to stay open anyone who believes this stupid article and buys know is going to be holding a lot of negative equity and loads of those Buy-to-Let Landlords are going to go bust. - - - The rout has started and nothing this paper writes can stop it

Are the prices Halifax use not the prices actually paid then but their valuation of the property?

 

[Maynardgravy]

1 hour ago, mynamehere said:

The consensus seems clear, if you hoping to buy a house under 400k, there will be no nominal crash  Over 1m, siginficant nominal falls are  likely. Inbetween real terms stagnation, or very modest nominal rises. 

It's just very hard to imagine any situation which would lead to large falls for sub 400k properties. 

 

 

Thanks for your consensus. 

[mynamehere]

 

1 minute ago, Maynardgravy said:

Thanks for your consensus. 

Obv there are bulls and bears on either side, but would you disagree this is the popular consensus? (ie the average opinion) What do you think the consensus is? (broadly)

[lombardo]

When do the regional numbers get published? I bet London fell.

I am not at all surprised at this rise because we still have a little while to go before the rest of the country catches up with London. And the last phase of a bubble before it pops is normally the craziest phase.

[Kosmin]

1 hour ago, mynamehere said:

The consensus seems clear, if you hoping to buy a house under 400k, there will be no nominal crash  Over 1m, siginficant nominal falls are  likely. Inbetween real terms stagnation, or very modest nominal rises. 

It's just very hard to imagine any situation which would lead to large falls for sub 400k properties. 

These prices could be propped up to some extent, as there are schemes to help FTBs. But as there are lots of sub 400k properties owned by landlords, I wonder if they are more prone to big falls (I suppose it depends on how many are forced to sell, and how the others respond).