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rantnrave

Halifax July 2018

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Someone wake me up when all this madness is over - did we expect anything else from a VI like Halifax? Does anyone audit them to verify their numbers?

Can only assume that this is a combination of low transactions and SE/BTL money seeking more value in Northern towns.

Market is dead round my way, reductions on a daily basis, stuff staying STC for many months.

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Indeed, but i don't see selling prices falling in my area (outer cambridgeshire) so this seems true albeit these monthly figures are high. Dont confuse rightmove reductions with house price falls if i were selling a house i would expect to reduce the price one or twice as if someone bites at the first price quickly then i priced it too low. I also think its premature to expect falling house prices before brexit. The credit taps are wide open (dont worry about MMR you can expand the term) and carney is primed with his new liquidity for the banks to lend. Longer term yes house prices are way too high but to expect a crash or to start seeing falls this year NATIONALLY might be a bit difficult.

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If it wasn't so tragic I'd actually burst out laughing at this nonsense. I can only imagine that all the new builds becoming available have pushed this number upwards along with overall lack of sales.

It does say new instructions are rising though and I'd still be amazed if this doesn't reverse large styley over the coming colder months. F#ck off summer.

On the supply side, new instructions, which had fallen for 26 consecutive months have now edged up in the past two months.

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51 minutes ago, rantnrave said:

UP ONE POINT FOUR PERCENT

ffs...

When you think hard about it, why should this not be the case. The UK two years after an overwhelming anti Immigration vote in the referendum is still allowing 400,000 into the UK per year, most of them with zero skills or of any use that all need to be housed, which then leads onto the £300 Billion welfare bill that is used in a large part to fund it all. Don't tell me for example that  Housing benefit is to help the poor and down trodden, it's there to line the pockets of that evil trade in BTL.

The remaining people who work and whose wages range between £20K -£45k are fighting like rats in a sack for the little remaining crap, dross  property. If any of you are expecting mainstream politics and mainstream media to fight your corner and sort this massive f*** up of a country you are a fool to yourselves, populist politics is now on the rise and we will have to see where that will take us,

Sorry, bit of a rant there, but like you I am just sick of it. I find myself these days giving dirty looks to slapper mothers with 4 kids(3 dads) and never worked in housing I am paying for which I will never see.

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1 minute ago, hurlerontheditch said:

Time to accept the market will stay irrational longer than you can wait 

Indeed. This websites 'zeitgeist' has been proven wrong, day-in day-out, for the lifetime of it's existence.

Yes there are some areas which are/will tank, but the desirable ones won't nose dive.

If anything, the dips if/when they happen will just exacerbate the problems mumped about on here.... institutional landlords, commercialisation of residential property, limited supply and building.

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Grim reading. For me the key to a crash - in the absence of some global event forcing the BoE to raise interest rates higher / faster than expected - is the BTL market starting a mass sell-off.

The phased in reduction of tax relief is a step towards that *but* with house price indicies still showing prices rising I can't help feeling landlors will hold on to thei properties even if their profits start to vanish purely on the back on capital gains.

So getting that YoY figure negative - even by 1 or 2 % to me is critical - that could get the ball rollingand things could start to go into reverse very quickly then.

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29 minutes ago, inbruges said:

When you think hard about it, why should this not be the case. The UK two years after an overwhelming anti Immigration vote in the referendum is still allowing 400,000 into the UK per year, most of them with zero skills or of any use that all need to be housed, which then leads onto the £300 Billion welfare bill that is used in a large part to fund it all. Don't tell me for example that  Housing benefit is to help the poor and down trodden, it's there to line the pockets of that evil trade in BTL.

The remaining people who work and whose wages range between £20K -£45k are fighting like rats in a sack for the little remaining crap, dross  property. If any of you are expecting mainstream politics and mainstream media to fight your corner and sort this massive f*** up of a country you are a fool to yourselves, populist politics is now on the rise and we will have to see where that will take us,

Sorry, bit of a rant there, but like you I am just sick of it. I find myself these days giving dirty looks to slapper mothers with 4 kids(3 dads) and never worked in housing I am paying for which I will never see.

Absolutely agree with the whole of this statement if we do get a BNP or UKIP in government (and these are radically different organisations). It will be due to the dogooders pro immigration and the mainstream parties importing hundreds of thousands of people per year and failing to provide housing or care about their impact on the environment. The government will let house prices fall when they need to politically this is well off still.

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Some explanations:

52 minutes ago, Smiley George said:

Can only assume that this is a combination of low transactions and SE/BTL money seeking more value in Northern towns.

Transactions have been flat but not falling significantly, and no regional breakdown unfortunately.

53 minutes ago, Pebbles said:

The credit taps are wide open (dont worry about MMR you can expand the term)

Consumer credit and mortgage lending data backs up this assertion.

34 minutes ago, Sperm Donor said:

I can only imagine that all the new builds becoming available have pushed this number upwards along with overall lack of sales.

No separation of new build vs existing houses unfortunately.

And immigration + housing benefit + BTL from @inbruges, but BTL does appear to be shrinking in its share of total lending.

With the exception of the inexhaustible appetite for borrowing money, it doesn't fit with any other trends in the economy in the UK or beyond. Very odd that banks would be lending like this with a no-deal exit on the cards.

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3 minutes ago, lostinessex said:

Grim reading. For me the key to a crash - in the absence of some global event forcing the BoE to raise interest rates higher / faster than expected - is the BTL market starting a mass sell-off.

The phased in reduction of tax relief is a step towards that *but* with house price indicies still showing prices rising I can't help feeling landlors will hold on to thei properties even if their profits start to vanish purely on the back on capital gains.

 So getting that YoY figure negative - even by 1 or 2 % to me is critical - that could get the ball rollingand things could start to go into reverse very quickly then.

My landlord is a new entrant started last month so i'm not seeing this. Indeed i've heard more people looking at using savings (1 using pension freedoms) to buy buy to let rather than letting go. As i say this is the cambridgeshire area.

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3 minutes ago, Pebbles said:

My landlord is a new entrant started last month so i'm not seeing this. Indeed i've heard more people looking at using savings (1 using pension freedoms) to buy buy to let rather than letting go. As i say this is the cambridgeshire area.

BTL does not make sense when you need to pay cash.

IT never made sense when it was 90% LTV - just a very high risk gamble.

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I'm not debating the sense of it but if a BTL landlord wants to pay more for something (and this landlord sought advice) and he is willing and able to do it then he will and he will set the minimum price (perhaps i could outbid him). Buying Property isn't just a spreadsheet exercise, banks may undervalue BTL risks on loan pricing landlords may buy property that makes no sense. hey my next door neighbour wont even sell his dads old house despite him having no intention of living in it how does that make financial sense?

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14 minutes ago, Pebbles said:

Absolutely agree with the whole of this statement if we do get a BNP or UKIP in government (and these are radically different organisations). It will be due to the dogooders pro immigration and the mainstream parties importing hundreds of thousands of people per year and failing to provide housing or care about their impact on the environment. The government will let house prices fall when they need to politically this is well off still.

For Goodness sake, we don't need racist un intelligent populist minorities like the BNP and probably UKIP, though Farage might have talked a lot of sense at times. There are plenty of intelligent people out there now that are thinking outside the box and talking the same language as many of us. To me the Tories and Labour are already dead, there is not 1% of their rhetoric that is hitting home with me. And to be honest I no longer care if perceived "hard right" populist groups start gaining control, I just want the rule book thrown up into the air and see people do what they said they would do. Trump for example is an idiot and he will fail, but he will fail doing what he said he would do, hopefully the next populist they chose will do the job better.

 

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37 minutes ago, spyguy said:

The transaction numbers are so low the HPI figures are useless.

 

What are they Spy, and how do they compare to the last decade?

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36 minutes ago, inbruges said:

For Goodness sake, we don't need racist un intelligent populist minorities like the BNP and probably UKIP, though Farage might have talked a lot of sense at times.

The risk is that by ignoring problems like ridiculous immigration rates people on the edge of acceptability start to tip over it towards the unpalatable groups who at least acknowledge the issue even if they do so for all the wrong reasons. That can turn in to a flood if the result from the mainstream is to dig their heels in with a combination of ignoring the problem and insulting those who see it; more and more they stick to the "bunch of racists that need dealing with" in reaction and in doing become even less able to see the cracks that let the likes of the BNP get a foothold outside of their core nutters. It's very irresponsible.

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  • 145 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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