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Rents rise 60% faster than wages across England - top 20 areas

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From Jan 2011-May 2018, the return on the ONS rent, rent ex London, and total wage indices are:

15.8% 12.4% 14.12%

No idea where Shelter are getting their numbers, but they would appear to be wrong.

Over the last 7 years for which we have reliable data, rents have tracked wages.  House prices, obviously, have not.

Edited by BorrowToLeech

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1 hour ago, BorrowToLeech said:

From Jan 2011-May 2018, the return on the ONS rent, rent ex London, and total wage indices are:

15.8% 12.4% 14.12%

No idea where Shelter are getting their numbers, but they would appear to be wrong.

Over the last 7 years for which we have reliable data, rents have tracked wages.  House prices, obviously, have not.

They're quoting the ONS Index of Private Housing Rental Prices for Great Britain, January 2011-June 2018, which shows an increase of 15.9%. Rounded up to two significant figures = 16%.

The earnings data are taken from the Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings, September 2017. Average monthly income for two full-time workers (one male, one female) in 2011 = £3535. Average monthly income for two full-time workers (one male, one female) in 2017 = £3884.

3884/3535 = 1.099. An increase of 9.9%, rounded up to two significant figures = 10%.

Rents have clearly outpaced earnings by a considerable margin since 2011. Square ft rents have risen even faster.

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Why since 2011? Haven't looked at the data yet but would bet the comparison varies significantly subject to starting year.

Also ASHE reports changes in median pay but I think the ONS index is for mean rents. Not sure about the distribution skew of rents and wages, but that may also matter for comparison.

Edited by guest_northshore

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10 hours ago, zugzwang said:

They're quoting the ONS Index of Private Housing Rental Prices for Great Britain, January 2011-June 2018, which shows an increase of 15.9%. Rounded up to two significant figures = 16%.

January 2011-June 2018. 7 years and 5 months. 

10 hours ago, zugzwang said:

The earnings data are taken from the Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings, September 2017...

ASHE numbers are as of April, so that would actually be April 2011 to April 2017, or 6 years. 

Over that period the ONS rent index grew by 14% (inc. London) or   10.2% (ex London).

10 hours ago, zugzwang said:

Average monthly income for two full-time workers (one male, one female) in 2011 = £3535. Average monthly income for two full-time workers (one male, one female) in 2017 = £3884.

3884/3535 = 1.099. An increase of 9.9%, rounded up to two significant figures = 10%.

So, by this calculation wage rises have kept pace with rents outside of London.

Of course, it goes without saying that this calculation is wrong.

The median female wage added to the median male wage is a predictor of what exactly?  

Not household wage, obviously, because not everyone lives in a couple where both people work.

If we were talking averages, then it’d could be a shit way of estimating the average wage for workers of all genders - shit because men and women work different amounts, and because the average wage is published just above the two numbers your busily adding.

But wage estimates are medians, and the sum of medians isn’t anything. 

What it is, quite obviously, is a cherry picked statistic.

The actual change in median annual wages over the correct period is 11.3%. 

So wage rises have been greater than rent rises outside London by ‘more than 10%’ (a bit more than 1% would be more honest but reporting the percentage difference in a percentage gives a better headline I guess).

10 hours ago, zugzwang said:

Rents have clearly outpaced earnings by a considerable margin since 2011. Square ft rents have risen even faster.

If you use the wrong dates, make up a new estimate for wages that doesn’t really work, and overstate the answer, then yeah you can make it look that way. 

If you just look at the data the no. 

What you really get is:

12 hours ago, BorrowToLeech said:

From Jan 2011-May 2018, the return on the ONS rent, rent ex London, and total wage indices are:

 15.8% 12.4% 14.12%

Rents have risen in line with wages - bit faster in London, bit slower outside.

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8 hours ago, BorrowToLeech said:

January 2011-June 2018. 7 years and 5 months. 

ASHE numbers are as of April, so that would actually be April 2011 to April 2017, or 6 years. 

Over that period the ONS rent index grew by 14% (inc. London) or   10.2% (ex London).

So, by this calculation wage rises have kept pace with rents outside of London.

Of course, it goes without saying that this calculation is wrong.

The median female wage added to the median male wage is a predictor of what exactly?  

Not household wage, obviously, because not everyone lives in a couple where both people work.

If we were talking averages, then it’d could be a shit way of estimating the average wage for workers of all genders - shit because men and women work different amounts, and because the average wage is published just above the two numbers your busily adding.

But wage estimates are medians, and the sum of medians isn’t anything. 

What it is, quite obviously, is a cherry picked statistic.

The actual change in median annual wages over the correct period is 11.3%. 

So wage rises have been greater than rent rises outside London by ‘more than 10%’ (a bit more than 1% would be more honest but reporting the percentage difference in a percentage gives a better headline I guess).

If you use the wrong dates, make up a new estimate for wages that doesn’t really work, and overstate the answer, then yeah you can make it look that way. 

If you just look at the data the no. 

What you really get is:

Rents have risen in line with wages - bit faster in London, bit slower outside.

You wanted to know where they got their numbers! OK, we can quibble over the methodology but it passes the smell test for me. A more accurate approach would be to use regional data, which Shelter has also done as part of its splendid #rentquake Twitter campaign. No ambiguities here. Rents have galloped ahead of wages in London and the South East. The Huff Post even suggesting that safe Tory seats in leafy boroughs may be imperilled by it. 

Tory MPs in leafy Middle England facing a 'rentquake'

5b63154f1900002800c6b6c4.png?ops=scalefi

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  • 150 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
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      • Even
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      • up 5%



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